Ludogorets II host Vihren in the Bulgaria: Second League on August 18th, with a high-scoring match expected as indicated by the 3.3 average number of goals. The most likely total number of goals is 3. The model picks a home win, with a 46% chance of Ludogorets II taking the three points, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 29% chance of Vihren securing a win.
Ludogorets II have struggled to score at home, averaging 1.4 goals per game, and conceding 1.6 goals. Vihren, meanwhile, have averaged just 0.67 goals per game when away from home, but have been more solid defensively, conceding 1.33 goals. The model suggests Over 1.5 goals, with an 85.5% probability.
The most likely score is 1-1, with a 10.7% probability.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Ludogorets II, was expected to win with a 46 % probability, but the match ended 0-2 in favour of Vihren, proving the model’s call wrong. The upset came after Ludogorets’ recent form of LLWWW, while Vihren remained unbeaten in their last five. The model’s selections were mixed: Away under 3.5 goals (93.8 %) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (88.0 %) hit, Home +2 handicap (86.1 %) missed, Over 1.5 (85.6 %) hit, Home over 0.5 goals (84.6 %) missed, Away under 2.5 goals (81.7 %) hit, Away over 0.5 goals (77.0 %) hit, and Home or Away (75.6 %) hit. The final score of 0-2 confirmed Vihren’s victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ludogorets II win✗ Miss
46.2%
Avg Implied 28.3% · @ 3.18
Edge
+17.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.34
Pinnacle
3.26
Marathonbet
3.26
Betfair
3.25
William Hil
3.20
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied 29.1% · @ 3.08
Edge
-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.20
10Bet
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Unibet
3.15
Vihren win✓ Hit
29.4%
Avg Implied 42.6% · @ 2.11
Edge
-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.18
Unibet
2.18
Dafabet
2.17
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.11
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ludogorets II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.27
2.07
1.40
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.40
1.89
1.56
0.45
1.27
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
1.00
2.33
1.17
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Vihren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vihren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.17
2.31
0.88
1.64
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.43
0.86
1.75
0.50
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (16)
2.50
1.44
2.88
1.25
2.12
1.62
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.6%
@ 1.27+14.3%
Under 1.5
14.4%
@ 3.15-14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.30
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.24
Under
Unibet
3.25
1xBet
3.14
Marathonbet
3.14
Superbet
3.10
888Sport
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.8%
@ 1.93+17.2%
Under 2.5
35.2%
@ 1.75-17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Superbet
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Under
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.79
1xBet
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.8%
@ 3.23+14.8%
Under 3.5
57.2%
@ 1.26-14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.40
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Superbet
3.20
Unibet
3.00
Under
Unibet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.1%
@ 1.73+13.2%
No
33.9%
@ 1.94-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
BetVictor
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Superbet
1.75
William Hil
1.75
1xBet
1.73
No
Unibet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
Marathonbet
1.92
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%@ 5.74+4.1%
2-1
9.1%@ 10.15+5.4%
1-2
7.2%@ 7.86+2.3%
2-2
6.7%@ 12.50+3.6%
2-0
6.2%@ 14.28+3.5%
3-1
5.7%@ 24.12+4.1%
1-0
5.7%@ 8.85+1.4%
0-0
4.5%@ 8.71+0.2%
Ludogorets II goals ↓
Vihren goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
4.2%
3.8%
1.9%
0.7%
1
5.7%
11%
7.2%
3.5%
1.3%
2
6.2%
9.1%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
3
3.9%
5.7%
4.2%
2.0%
0.7%
4
1.8%
2.7%
1.9%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ludogorets II goals (down), columns = Vihren goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Ludogorets II is 1.00 points worse than Vihren in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 2.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Ludogorets II is 1.43 goals worse than Vihren in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Ludogorets II is 0.14 goals worse than Vihren in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ludogorets II or Draw✗ Miss
70.6%
Avg Implied 57.4% · @ 1.59
Edge
+13.2%
46%
24%
29%
covers Ludogorets II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.62
888Sport
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Marathonbet
1.58
Ludogorets II or Vihren✓ Hit
75.6%
Avg Implied 71.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
+4.0%
46%
24%
29%
covers Ludogorets II + Vihren
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.32
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or Vihren✓ Hit
53.8%
Avg Implied 71.0% · @ 1.28
Edge
-17.2%
46%
24%
29%
covers Draw + Vihren
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
84.6%
@ 1.37+18.2%
Under
15.4%
@ 2.71-18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.37
Under
1xBet
2.71
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
55.7%
@ 2.93+24.5%
Under
44.3%
@ 1.33-24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.93
Marathonbet
2.93
Under
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
28.8%
@ 7.80+17.2%
Under
71.2%
@ 1.02-17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.80
Under
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Ludogorets II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.0%
@ 1.21+1.8%
Under
23.0%
@ 3.66-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.21
Under
1xBet
3.66
Vihren over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
43.1%
@ 2.14+0.2%
Under
56.9%
@ 1.61-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.13
Under
Pinnacle
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Vihren over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.3%
@ 4.70-0.9%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.12+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Under
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Vihren over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ludogorets II, so a minus line means Ludogorets II give that many goals of a start and Vihren receive them. At -1, Ludogorets II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ludogorets II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ludogorets II)Actual: Vihren
Ludogorets II -2
11.9%
Draw -2
14.2%
Vihren +2
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ludogorets II)Actual: Vihren
Ludogorets II -1
26.1%
@ 7.25+13.9%
Draw -1
20.0%
@ 4.90+1.9%
Vihren +1
53.8%
@ 1.27-15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Draw
Marathonbet
5.05
10Bet
4.75
Away
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.25
Handicap +1 (Ludogorets II)Actual: Vihren
Ludogorets II +1
70.6%
@ 1.62+15.8%
Draw +1
15.5%
@ 3.83-7.7%
Vihren -1
13.9%
@ 4.05-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.67
Marathonbet
1.58
Draw
Marathonbet
3.90
Betfair
3.75
Away
Marathonbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Handicap +2 (Ludogorets II)Actual: Draw
Ludogorets II +2
86.1%
@ 1.16+9.6%
Draw +2
8.8%
@ 6.50-4.9%
Vihren -2
5.1%
@ 9.00-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.16
Draw
Marathonbet
6.50
Away
Marathonbet
9.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ludogorets II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
1.20
0.80
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.65
1.11
0.89
0.18
0.45
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.60
1.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Vihren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vihren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.94
0.44
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.29
0.38
0.38
0.50
0.17
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
0.69
1.50
0.50
0.88
0.88
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ludogorets II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.87
0.60
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.75
0.78
0.67
0.27
0.82
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Vihren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vihren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.38
0.44
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.57
1.38
0.12
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (16)
1.31
0.75
1.38
0.75
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.1%
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-
-
-
+9.6%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
85.6%
1.27
888Sport
1.30
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.24
+14.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
84.6%
1.37
1xBet
1.37
-
-
-
-
+18.2%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
81.7%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.0%
1.21
1xBet
1.21
-
-
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.6%
1.27
Betano
1.32
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
71.2%
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-17.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.6%
1.59
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.62
888Sport
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Marathonbet
1.58
+13.2%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
70.6%
1.62
Betfair
1.67
Marathonbet
1.58
-
-
-
+15.8%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Ludogorets II's squad is €1m less valuable than Vihren's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Ludogorets II and Vihren have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Ludogorets II and Vihren have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Ludogorets II and Vihren have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →