Ludogorets, on a 2-game winning run, hosts Botev Vratsa, who suffered two consecutive defeats before this match. Ludogorets has been scoring 1.3 goals per game at home, conceding only 0.7. Meanwhile, Botev Vratsa averages 0.5 goals scored away, while conceding 1.62 goals to stronger opponents.
The model predicts Ludogorets to win with a 59% probability, narrowly ahead of a 27% draw probability and a 14% Botev Vratsa win probability. The expected total number of goals is 2.2, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-0, occurring with a 16.2% probability.
The model's selection is the home win, with Ludogorets scoring 1.3 goals per game at home and conceding 0.7. The model's selection for the total number of goals is Under 3.5, occurring with an 82% probability and an edge of 13%. This selection has hit in the past. The home win percentage is 59%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 14%.
The win extends Ludogorets' 2-game winning run, with a 2-1 victory over Botev Vratsa. The model's selection, Ludogorets to win, proved correct, given a pre-match probability of 59%. The model's call was also in line with the actual result. The suggested picks largely came in, with 'Under 3.5' goals hitting, as predicted by an 82% probability. The most likely score, 2-0, was not the actual outcome, but the model's selection was the favourite, and the final score of 2-1 still landed in the model's favour.
Ludogorets| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 0.70 | 1.31 | 0.62 | 1.57 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.92 | 0.62 | 1.38 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 1.82 | 0.76 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 2.33 | 0.78 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Botev Vratsa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 0.90 | 1.19 | 0.75 | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.64 | 1.36 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 0.33 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.28 | 0.61 | 1.27 | 0.55 | 1.29 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 4.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
| Botev Vratsa goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 12% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 16% | 12% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 14% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 7.1% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Ludogorets
Botev Vratsa
Ludogorets| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.7 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 22.9 | 23.1 | 22.6 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 8.3 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 25.0 | 26.0 | 23.8 |
| vs Weaker (29) | 10.8 | 12.2 | 9.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 21.2 | 20.6 | 21.8 |
| % over line | 45% | 60% | 29% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 62% | 60% | 64% |
| % under line | 55% | 40% | 71% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 38% | 40% | 36% |
Botev Vratsa| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.3 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.1 |
| vs Stronger (19) | 8.3 | 6.5 | 9.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 20.6 | 24.8 | 17.2 |
| vs Similar (30) | 8.2 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 24.6 | 22.6 | 27.3 |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 32% | 15% | 50% | 34% | 40% | 28% | 60% | 46% | 75% |
| % under line | 68% | 85% | 50% | 66% | 60% | 72% | 40% | 54% | 25% |
Ludogorets| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.33 | 0.56 | 0.25 | 0.64 | 0.43 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.46 | 0.38 | 0.75 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 0.71 | 0.29 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 1.00 | 0.22 |
| Clean sheet % | 73% (+40pp vs league) | |||||
Botev Vratsa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.27 | 0.38 | 0.25 | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.18 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.50 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.18 | 0.71 | 0.29 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 80% (+46pp vs league) | |||||
Ludogorets| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.37 | 0.75 | 0.38 | 0.93 | 0.36 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.46 | 0.23 | 0.62 | 0.38 | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 1.12 | 0.47 | 0.88 | 0.38 | 1.33 | 0.56 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Botev Vratsa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.63 | 0.81 | 0.50 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.45 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.33 | 1.17 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.78 | 0.39 | 0.91 | 0.36 | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 4.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 82.0% | 1.33 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.33 | +12.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 79.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 76.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 75.8% | 1.31 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.30 | 1.27 | 1.27 | +5.8% | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 75.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 70.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 25/07/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 23/04/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 10/04/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 15/03/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 29/09/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 03/12/23 | H | 5-0 | |
| 05/08/23 | A | 0-5 |
Ludogorets| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 27/07/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 29/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 25/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 29/04/26 | A | 0-0 |
Botev Vratsa| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 19/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 18/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 14/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 05/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 3-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Ludogorets | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 83% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | 10.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 46 | 27 | 6 | 13 | 1.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 15 | 2 | +13 | 3.4 | 100% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | 2.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 3.0 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 2.6 | 0.6 | - |
| 4 | Arda Kardzhali | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | 6.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | - |
| 5 | CSKA 1948 | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | 6.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.7 | 67% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | 7.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 20 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | Septemvri Sofia | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2.2 | 67% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.5 | - |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 1.6 | 60% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | 10.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | - |
| 9 | Spartak Varna | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3.2 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 10 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 2.8 | 83% | 67% | 17% | - | 0% | 7.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.2 | - |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 6 | 3 | 17% | 0.5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1.8 | 50% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | 8.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Dunav Ruse | 6 | 3 | 17% | 0.5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.8 | 100% | 67% | 17% | - | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |