Ludogorets vs CSKA Sofia Result & Analysis

The contest between Ludogorets and CSKA Sofia is as balanced as the numbers suggest, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities both sit at 31% while the draw is 38%. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.5% chance. Ludogorets, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.75 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, whereas CSKA Sofia on the road against a similar side averages 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 90.8%, Over 19.5 fouls at 84.5%, Under 3.5 at 79.2% (miss), Over 3.5 cards at 79.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 72.3%, and Over 21.5 fouls at 72.2%. Each pick is listed with its probability and noted edge where applicable. The match is poised to be a tightly contested draw, with both sides showing recent resilience.

The draw shocked everyone, as the pre-match favourite, CSKA Sofia, fell short of the model’s prediction of an away win with a 38% probability. Ludogorets, unbeaten in their last five, secured a 2-2 finish, extending their run of positive results. The model’s call was wrong, but its other selections largely held. Over 2.5 cards hit at 90.8%, as did Over 19.5 fouls at 84.5%, Over 3.5 cards at 79.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 72.3% and Over 21.5 fouls at 72.2%. The Under 3.5 selection missed, with the match delivering more than three and a half goals. The final score of 2-2 matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, but the draw itself was the real surprise.