Ludogorets vs CSKA Sofia Result & Analysis

The contest between Ludogorets and CSKA Sofia is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 32% for a home victory, 29% for a draw and 39% for CSKA Sofia to lift the trophy. The expected total of goals is 2.6, with the most likely total being two goals at a 26% chance. The single score that the model deems most probable is 1-1, occurring with a 13.7% probability.

Ludogorets, playing at home, typically scores an average of two goals and concedes 0.86 against similar opposition. CSKA Sofia, on the road, averages one goal scored and one conceded against comparable teams. Both sides have been relatively balanced, and the recent form shows Ludogorets unbeaten in five games, while CSKA Sofia has just come off a defeat.

The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Under 5.5 (95.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Under 4.5 (87.6%), Home under 2.5 goals (87.2%) and Away +2 handicap (85.7%). Each selection is presented with its probability, and the edge percentages are omitted as none are supplied.

The match saw CSKA Sofia secure a 1-2 away win, extending their recent run of victories after a defeat. The model had picked the away win with a 39% probability, and it proved correct. The final score matched the predicted 1-2 outcome. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 hit at 99.5%, Under 6.5 at 98.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.3%, Under 5.5 at 95.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 94.9%, Under 4.5 at 87.6%, Home under 2.5 goals at 87.2%, and Away +2 handicap at 85.7%. All picks were settled and each hit, confirming the model’s predictions.