Ludogorets vs Levski Sofia Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 50% chance for Levski Sofia, 27% for a draw and 23% for Ludogorets. The expected total goals sit at 2.7, but the most likely total is 2, with a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.7% chance. Ludogorets, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. Levski Sofia, on the road against a similar side, averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.6%), Under 5.5 (94.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.1%), Away +2 handicap (90.9%), Home under 2.5 goals (90.6%) and Under 4.5 (85.6%). Each selection is presented with its probability and no other commentary.

Unbeaten in their last five, Ludogorets kept their form alive with a 1-0 win over Levski Sofia, defying the model’s pre-match pick of an away win at 50%. The final score of 1-0 gave Ludogorets a home victory, while the model’s favourite missed. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.3%, Under 6.5 at 97.8%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.6%, Under 5.5 at 94.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 91.1%, Away +2 handicap at 90.9%, Home under 2.5 goals at 90.6%, and Under 4.5 at 85.6%. The match delivered a tight, low-scoring affair that matched the model’s heavy lean toward under-goals outcomes.