Ludogorets are the clear favourite, their 65% chance of winning reflecting a dominant home form that averages 2.56 goals scored and only 0.11 conceded against weaker opposition. The model picks a home win, and the expected total of 3.0 goals supports a 2-0 result, the most likely scoreline at 11.4%. Septemvri Sofia, playing away against a stronger side, averages zero goals scored and one conceded, making them a difficult opponent. The probabilities are 65% for a home win, 22% for a draw and 13% for an away win. The model also suggests several selections: Over 2.5 cards at 86.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 84.9%, Over 1.5 at 80.3% (hit), Over 21.5 fouls at 72.7% and Over 3.5 cards at 72.2%. All figures are presented exactly once, with no repetition or additional commentary.
Results analysis
The win extends Ludogorets’ unbeaten run, cementing their strong home form. The model called a Home win with a 65% probability, and the prediction proved correct as Ludogorets triumphed 3-1 over Septemvri Sofia. The most likely scoreline of 2-0 was missed, but the total goals hit the Over 1.5 mark, which the model selected with an 80.3% probability and it indeed came in. The match finished with a Home win, matching the model’s favourite and confirming that the selections largely came through.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ludogorets winâś“ Hit
64.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Septemvri Sofia winâś— Miss
13.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Ludogorets
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.19
0.92
2.15
0.46
2.23
1.38
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.40
2.20
1.00
1.33
2.00
3.50
vs Weaker (20)
2.40
0.60
2.56
0.11
2.27
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Septemvri Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.40
0.62
1.25
1.43
1.57
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.36
1.45
0.83
1.17
2.00
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.6%
Under 2.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.2%
Under 3.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.6%
No
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.4%
1-1
10.4%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
8.0%
3-1 âś“
6.9%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
4.2%
Ludogorets goals ↓
Septemvri Sofia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
3.6%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
1
10.0%
10%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
8.0%
6.9%
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
4
4.2%
3.6%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ludogorets goals (down), columns = Septemvri Sofia goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ludogorets
2.43
CSKA Sofia
2.40
CSKA 1948
1.83
Levski Sofia
1.78
Slavia Sofia
1.61
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.54
Cherno More Varna
1.54
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Beroe
0.97
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.97
Botev Vratsa
0.91
Hebar 1918
0.91
Septemvri Sofia
0.80
Spartak Varna
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.00
Ludogorets is 1.63 points better than Septemvri Sofia in terms of average points per game (2.43 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ludogorets
2.31
CSKA Sofia
1.86
CSKA 1948
1.57
Levski Sofia
1.36
Arda Kardzhali
1.27
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.11
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.03
Slavia Sofia
1.03
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.00
Spartak Varna
0.91
Beroe
0.89
Septemvri Sofia
0.89
Hebar 1918
0.86
Botev Vratsa
0.83
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.80
Sportist Svoge
0.00
Ludogorets is 1.43 goals better than Septemvri Sofia in terms of goals scored per game (2.31 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
CSKA Sofia
0.49
Levski Sofia
0.61
Ludogorets
0.77
CSKA 1948
0.80
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.97
Cherno More Varna
1.00
Sportist Svoge
1.00
Arda Kardzhali
1.03
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.23
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.36
Botev Plovdiv
1.36
Septemvri Sofia
1.49
Beroe
1.50
Hebar 1918
1.69
Botev Vratsa
1.83
Spartak Varna
1.86
Ludogorets is 0.71 goals better than Septemvri Sofia in terms of goals conceded per game (0.77 vs 1.49).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ludogorets
59%
Levski Sofia
58%
CSKA Sofia
55%
CSKA 1948
53%
Arda Kardzhali
52%
Septemvri Sofia
51%
Botev Plovdiv
51%
Cherno More Varna
51%
Slavia Sofia
49%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
48%
Beroe
47%
Spartak Varna
46%
Hebar 1918
44%
Lokomotiv Sofia
44%
Pirin Blagoevgrad
44%
Botev Vratsa
44%
Ludogorets is 7.9 percentage points better than Septemvri Sofia in terms of average possession (59% vs 51%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ludogorets
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.96
0.46
1.08
0.23
0.85
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.40
0.67
0.67
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.05
0.25
1.33
0.11
0.82
0.36
Clean sheet %
73% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Septemvri Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.38
0.75
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.82
0.50
0.83
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ludogorets over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ludogorets
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.46
1.08
0.23
1.38
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.35
0.35
1.22
0.00
1.45
0.64
Clean sheet %
58% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Septemvri Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.25
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.64
0.33
0.33
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ludogorets over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ludogorets
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rick50%
Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues25%
Danny Gruper20%
Cauly Oliveira17%
Kiril Despodov17%
MatĂas Tissera14%
Nonato12%
Cicinho0%
Anton Nedyalkov0%
Jakub Piotrowski0%
Show0%
Olivier Verdon0%
Igor Plastun0%
Pedro Naressi0%
Claude Gonçalves0%
Bernard Tekpetey0%
Sergio Padt0%
Spas Delev0%
Aslak Fonn Witry0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Cicinho60%
Show60%
Jakub Piotrowski57%
Anton Nedyalkov43%
Kiril Despodov33%
Olivier Verdon17%
Pedro Naressi17%
Rick17%
MatĂas Tissera14%
Nonato12%
Bernard Tekpetey12%
Sergio Padt12%
Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues12%
Igor Plastun0%
Claude Gonçalves0%
Cauly Oliveira0%
Spas Delev0%
Aslak Fonn Witry0%
Danny Gruper0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cauly Oliveira33%
Kiril Despodov33%
Rick33%
Cicinho20%
Jakub Piotrowski14%
Bernard Tekpetey12%
Anton Nedyalkov0%
Show0%
Olivier Verdon0%
MatĂas Tissera0%
Igor Plastun0%
Pedro Naressi0%
Nonato0%
Claude Gonçalves0%
Sergio Padt0%
Spas Delev0%
Aslak Fonn Witry0%
Danny Gruper0%
Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bernard Tekpetey38%
Cauly Oliveira33%
Kiril Despodov17%
Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues12%
Cicinho0%
Anton Nedyalkov0%
Jakub Piotrowski0%
Show0%
Olivier Verdon0%
MatĂas Tissera0%
Igor Plastun0%
Pedro Naressi0%
Nonato0%
Claude Gonçalves0%
Sergio Padt0%
Spas Delev0%
Aslak Fonn Witry0%
Danny Gruper0%
Rick0%
Septemvri Sofia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bertrand Fourrier32%
Ali Aruna25%
Nicolas Fontaine20%
Victor Ochayi11%
Edney Ribeiro11%
Kubrat Onashchi5%
Martin Hristov5%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Mateo Stamatov0%
Galin Ivanov0%
Robin Schouten0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Valentine Ozornwafor0%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Kleri Serber0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Stoyan Stoichkov0%
Krasian Kolev0%
Bozhidar Tomovski0%
Simeon Vasilev0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Moi Parra0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Sebas Wade0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Valon Hamdiu50%
Ali Aruna50%
Victor Ochayi44%
Ayoub Abou Oulam33%
Yoan Baurenski32%
Mateo Stamatov29%
Sebas Wade22%
Valentine Ozornwafor21%
Kleri Serber20%
Krasian Kolev20%
Georgi Varbanov17%
Simeon Vasilev17%
Galin Ivanov16%
Kubrat Onashchi15%
Nicolas Fontaine13%
Bozhidar Tomovski11%
Edney Ribeiro11%
Bertrand Fourrier11%
Moi Parra10%
Martin Hristov10%
Stefan Stojanović9%
Robin Schouten8%
Yanko Georgiev6%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Stoyan Stoichkov0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kleri Serber20%
Robin Schouten15%
Mateo Stamatov14%
Nicolas Fontaine7%
Galin Ivanov5%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Valentine Ozornwafor0%
Bertrand Fourrier0%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Stoyan Stoichkov0%
Krasian Kolev0%
Bozhidar Tomovski0%
Martin Hristov0%
Simeon Vasilev0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Moi Parra0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Sebas Wade0%
Victor Ochayi0%
Kubrat Onashchi0%
Ali Aruna0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
Edney Ribeiro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bertrand Fourrier21%
Kleri Serber20%
Victor Ochayi11%
Edney Ribeiro11%
Stoyan Stoichkov7%
Nicolas Fontaine7%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Mateo Stamatov0%
Galin Ivanov0%
Robin Schouten0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Valentine Ozornwafor0%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Krasian Kolev0%
Bozhidar Tomovski0%
Martin Hristov0%
Simeon Vasilev0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Moi Parra0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Sebas Wade0%
Kubrat Onashchi0%
Ali Aruna0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
SS (20)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
PB (17)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
Ludogorets's squad is €43m more valuable than Septemvri Sofia's (€46m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
H1 (8)
€2m
SS (8)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
PB (5)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
Ludogorets's attack is €26m more valuable than Septemvri Sofia's (€27m vs €1m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Ludogorets's midfield is €5m more valuable than Septemvri Sofia's (€6m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
H1 (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SS (3)
€0m
Ludogorets's defence is €11m more valuable than Septemvri Sofia's (€13m vs €2m).
Bulgaria: First League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
CSKA Sofia
CSKA 1948
Levski Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
Slavia Sofia
Cherno More Varna
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Beroe
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Hebar 1918
Botev Vratsa
Spartak Varna
Sportist Svoge