Ludogorets are expected to continue their winning form, having just come off a 2-game winning streak. They face off against Slavia Sofia, who are coming off a win themselves but struggling to score on the road. Ludogorets have a strong home record, scoring an average of 1.3 goals per game and conceding just 0.8. They'll look to capitalize on Slavia Sofia's weakness in away games, where they've scored only 0.5 goals per game and conceded 1.0.
The model predicts a home win for Ludogorets, with a 61% probability of a Ludogorets victory, 26% chance of a draw, and 13% chance of a Slavia Sofia win. The expected total goals is 2.3, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-0, with a probability of 15.9%. Ludogorets have a 61% chance of winning, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 13% chance of losing. The model's selection for the match is the home win. The model's selection for the total goals is Under 3.5, with an 80.6% probability.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Ludogorets, failed to deliver as the match finished 1-1, a draw that keeps both sides unbeaten in their last five outings. The model had picked a home win with a 62 % probability, but that call was wrong. Every suggested selection was settled: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.8 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.7 %, Under 6.5 hit at 99.2 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.1 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.6 %, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 97.7 %, Under 5.5 hit at 97.3 %, and Home +2 handicap hit at 96.8 %. The game’s low scoring was in line with the model’s most likely total of two goals, yet the expected 1-0 or 2-0 outcomes did not materialise.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ludogorets win✗ Miss
61.9%
Avg Implied 69.7% · @ 1.32
Edge
-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.37
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
888Sport
1.33
Dafabet
1.33
Draw✓ Hit
26.0%
Avg Implied 19.5% · @ 4.73
Edge
+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
5.25
Bet365
5.00
Dafabet
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Pinnacle
4.89
Slavia Sofia win✗ Miss
12.1%
Avg Implied 10.8% · @ 8.49
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
9.00
Marathonbet
9.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ludogorets
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.80
1.53
0.71
1.69
0.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.18
0.82
1.71
0.71
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.84
0.79
1.40
0.70
2.33
0.89
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.97
1.20
0.93
1.07
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.19
1.04
1.23
1.08
1.15
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.7%
@ 1.19-11.0%
Under 1.5
33.3%
@ 4.17+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
Unibet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Pinnacle
4.36
Bet365
4.33
888Sport
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.0%
@ 1.65-17.4%
Under 2.5
61.0%
@ 2.14+17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Under
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.0%
@ 2.60-16.5%
Under 3.5
81.0%
@ 1.43+16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.70
Betfair
2.70
Pinnacle
2.67
BetVictor
2.63
888Sport
2.63
Under
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
37.4%
@ 1.96-9.7%
No
62.6%
@ 1.75+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
2.02
BetVictor
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
No
William Hil
1.83
888Sport
1.83
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.75
BetVictor
1.73
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.4%@ 6.37+9.5%
2-0
14.4%@ 6.00+7.0%
0-0
11.6%@ 12.07+8.0%
1-1 ✓
11.5%@ 8.43+6.3%
2-1
8.6%@ 7.59+2.8%
3-0
7.9%@ 7.84+2.3%
0-1
5.3%@ 19.02+3.0%
3-1
4.7%@ 10.06+0.4%
Ludogorets goals ↓
Slavia Sofia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
5.3%
1.9%
0.4%
0.1%
1
16%
11%
3.1%
0.6%
0.1%
2
14%
8.6%
2.6%
0.5%
0.1%
3
7.9%
4.7%
1.4%
0.3%
0.0%
4
3.3%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ludogorets goals (down), columns = Slavia Sofia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Ludogorets is 1.43 points better than Slavia Sofia in terms of average points per game (2.43 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Ludogorets is 0.71 goals better than Slavia Sofia in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Ludogorets is 0.14 goals better than Slavia Sofia in terms of goals conceded per game (0.71 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ludogorets
For 6.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.9 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Slavia Sofia
For 3.7 · Against 7.3 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 10.8 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ludogorets
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
10.4
8.6
3.0
2.9
3.2
23.1
23.3
22.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
8.3
8.6
8.0
4.3
4.4
4.2
25.0
26.0
23.8
vs Weaker (32)
10.4
11.8
9.0
2.3
2.1
2.5
21.7
21.2
22.1
% over line
42%
56%
27%
42%
42%
42%
65%
62%
67%
% under line
58%
44%
73%
58%
58%
58%
35%
38%
33%
This opponent (Slavia Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Sofia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.2
11.5
1.9
1.5
2.4
21.9
22.2
21.5
vs Stronger (7)
10.2
7.5
12.0
2.9
1.0
5.3
22.4
18.5
25.0
vs Similar (42)
11.1
10.8
11.4
1.8
1.7
2.0
21.8
23.0
20.5
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
58%
69%
24%
15%
33%
48%
58%
38%
% under line
36%
42%
31%
76%
85%
67%
52%
42%
62%
This opponent (Ludogorets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.4
Botev Plovdiv
10.2
Spartak Varna
10.1
CSKA Sofia
9.7
Levski Sofia
9.6
Ludogorets
9.5
Botev Vratsa
9.4
CSKA 1948
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.3
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Septemvri Sofia
8.9
Arda Kardzhali
8.7
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Cherno More Varna
4.9
Septemvri Sofia
4.8
Botev Vratsa
4.8
Spartak Varna
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Ludogorets
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Slavia Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1
Dunav Ruse
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.1
Levski Sofia
24.5
Botev Vratsa
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.1
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.8
Septemvri Sofia
23.0
Spartak Varna
22.9
CSKA 1948
22.8
Ludogorets
22.4
CSKA Sofia
22.3
Botev Plovdiv
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.3%
@ 1.77+5.0%
Under 9.5
42.7%
@ 1.94-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Under
Unibet
2.00
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.9%
@ 1.79+10.4%
Under 3.5
38.1%
@ 1.90-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.60
Under
Superbet
2.12
Betano
1.67
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
52.5%
Under 21.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ludogorets or Draw✓ Hit
87.9%
Avg Implied 88.7% · @ 1.05
Edge
-0.8%
62%
26%
12%
covers Ludogorets + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.10
BetVictor
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Ludogorets or Slavia Sofia✗ Miss
74.0%
Avg Implied 81.5% · @ 1.14
Edge
-7.4%
62%
26%
12%
covers Ludogorets + Slavia Sofia
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Draw or Slavia Sofia✓ Hit
38.1%
Avg Implied 29.9% · @ 3.12
Edge
+8.2%
62%
26%
12%
covers Draw + Slavia Sofia
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.30
Betano
3.30
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
10Bet
3.20
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ludogorets over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.8%
@ 1.08-6.4%
Under
19.2%
@ 7.33+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Under
Bet365
8.00
888Sport
7.50
1xBet
7.40
Betano
6.40
Ludogorets over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
49.1%
@ 1.43-15.5%
Under
50.9%
@ 2.61+15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
888Sport
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Under
BetVictor
2.70
Pinnacle
2.68
Superbet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.62
Ludogorets over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.9%
@ 2.35-16.4%
Under
77.1%
@ 1.53+16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.42
888Sport
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Unibet
2.38
Under
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.55
BetVictor
1.53
Ludogorets over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.6%
@ 4.34-12.7%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.17+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
4.60
1xBet
4.60
BetVictor
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Under
Marathonbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Slavia Sofia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
45.1%
@ 1.80-6.2%
Under
54.9%
@ 1.89+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.83
Unibet
1.81
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Under
Superbet
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Slavia Sofia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
12.2%
@ 4.94-6.6%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.14+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
BetVictor
5.25
888Sport
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
888Sport
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Slavia Sofia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 15.56-3.8%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
888Sport
19.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Slavia Sofia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.3%
@ 51.00-99.7%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ludogorets, so a minus line means Ludogorets give that many goals of a start and Slavia Sofia receive them. At -1, Ludogorets must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ludogorets win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ludogorets)Actual: Slavia Sofia
Ludogorets -2
15.7%
@ 3.25-11.9%
Draw -2
19.7%
@ 3.94-3.0%
Slavia Sofia +2
64.6%
@ 1.80+14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.30
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.08
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Away
Betfair
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.75
Handicap -1 (Ludogorets)Actual: Slavia Sofia
Ludogorets -1
35.4%
@ 1.92-11.3%
Draw -1
26.5%
@ 3.58+1.5%
Slavia Sofia +1
38.1%
@ 3.17+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.95
Unibet
1.92
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.56
10Bet
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Betfair
3.40
Away
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.12
Unibet
3.00
Handicap +1 (Ludogorets)Actual: Ludogorets
Ludogorets +1
87.9%
@ 1.07+1.5%
Draw +1
9.0%
@ 10.00-0.3%
Slavia Sofia -1
3.2%
@ 21.00-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Away
Bet365
21.00
Handicap +2 (Ludogorets)Actual: Ludogorets
Ludogorets +2
96.8%
@ 1.02+2.4%
Draw +2
2.6%
@ 26.00-1.1%
Slavia Sofia -2
0.6%
@ 51.00-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Draw
Bet365
26.00
Away
Bet365
51.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ludogorets
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.71
0.29
0.54
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.55
0.71
0.29
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.74
0.32
0.70
0.30
0.78
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.40
0.73
0.47
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.46
0.69
0.54
0.46
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.2%
@ 1.30+2.7%
Under 0.5
25.8%
@ 3.26-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
36.3%
@ 2.39-2.5%
Under 1.5
63.7%
@ 1.52+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.53
Betano
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Unibet
2.43
Marathonbet
2.39
Under
Superbet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
William Hil
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.9%
@ 5.48-4.0%
Under 2.5
87.1%
@ 1.11+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
5.50
William Hil
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Under
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ludogorets over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
59.6%
@ 1.49-2.9%
Under
40.4%
@ 2.49+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Superbet
1.46
Under
Pinnacle
2.61
Superbet
2.55
1xBet
2.47
Unibet
2.40
Betano
2.40
Ludogorets over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
18.7%
@ 3.30-9.3%
Under
81.3%
@ 1.28+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Ludogorets over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 8.30-6.3%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.04+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.90
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.02
Slavia Sofia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
32.6%
@ 3.26+4.1%
Under
67.4%
@ 1.30-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.68
Marathonbet
3.26
Betano
3.20
Unibet
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Unibet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Slavia Sofia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.3%
@ 10.25-3.8%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.03+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Slavia Sofia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ludogorets
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
0.82
0.41
1.15
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.27
1.00
0.43
0.25
0.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.11
0.47
0.70
0.40
1.56
0.56
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.47
0.47
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.58
0.54
0.54
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.4%
Under 0.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
42.8%
Under 1.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.1%
Under 2.5
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ludogorets over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
65.4%
Under
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
29.8%
Under
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Sofia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
37.5%
Under
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Sofia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Sofia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.2%
1.04
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.7%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.2%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+12.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.4%
1.17
Marathonbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+12.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
87.9%
1.05
Betano
1.10
BetVictor
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
87.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
87.8%
1.14
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
888Sport
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.3%
1.28
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-
-
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.0%
1.43
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
+16.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
80.8%
1.08
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
1xBet
1.06
-
-6.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.1%
1.53
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.55
BetVictor
1.53
+16.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.2%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.29
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
74.0%
1.14
888Sport
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
-7.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ludogorets · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kwadwo Duah47%
Petar Stanić36%
Ivajlo Chochev34%
Emerson Rodríguez20%
Yves Erick Bile20%
Rwan Cruz18%
Erick Marcus13%
Ivan Yordanov11%
Olivier Verdon11%
Son10%
Idan Nachmias8%
Stanislav Ivanov7%
Joel Andersson5%
Bernard Tekpetey4%
Caio Vidal4%
Dinis Almeida4%
Deroy Duarte3%
Anton Nedyalkov0%
Pedro Naressi0%
Mounir Chouiar0%
Hendrik Bonmann0%
Sergio Padt0%
Edvin Kurtulus0%
Filip Kaloč0%
Filip Gigov0%
Simeon Shishkov0%
Vinicius Nogueira0%
Matheus Machado Ferreira0%
Alberto Salido0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Edvin Kurtulus30%
Dinis Almeida27%
Pedro Naressi24%
Anton Nedyalkov23%
Idan Nachmias23%
Simeon Shishkov20%
Filip Kaloč19%
Vinicius Nogueira18%
Mounir Chouiar17%
Olivier Verdon14%
Erick Marcus13%
Bernard Tekpetey12%
Caio Vidal12%
Yves Erick Bile10%
Deroy Duarte9%
Rwan Cruz9%
Hendrik Bonmann8%
Son7%
Stanislav Ivanov7%
Petar Stanić6%
Kwadwo Duah6%
Ivajlo Chochev6%
Joel Andersson5%
Sergio Padt0%
Ivan Yordanov0%
Emerson Rodríguez0%
Filip Gigov0%
Matheus Machado Ferreira0%
Alberto Salido0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Petar Stanić21%
Emerson Rodríguez20%
Mounir Chouiar17%
Bernard Tekpetey17%
Erick Marcus13%
Caio Vidal12%
Vinicius Nogueira9%
Dinis Almeida8%
Pedro Naressi7%
Son7%
Anton Nedyalkov7%
Stanislav Ivanov7%
Kwadwo Duah6%
Ivajlo Chochev6%
Joel Andersson5%
Olivier Verdon4%
Deroy Duarte3%
Hendrik Bonmann0%
Sergio Padt0%
Edvin Kurtulus0%
Filip Kaloč0%
Ivan Yordanov0%
Idan Nachmias0%
Rwan Cruz0%
Filip Gigov0%
Simeon Shishkov0%
Matheus Machado Ferreira0%
Yves Erick Bile0%
Alberto Salido0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Caio Vidal36%
Kwadwo Duah35%
Petar Stanić24%
Ivajlo Chochev23%
Rwan Cruz18%
Bernard Tekpetey12%
Yves Erick Bile10%
Erick Marcus10%
Son3%
Anton Nedyalkov0%
Olivier Verdon0%
Pedro Naressi0%
Stanislav Ivanov0%
Joel Andersson0%
Mounir Chouiar0%
Hendrik Bonmann0%
Dinis Almeida0%
Deroy Duarte0%
Sergio Padt0%
Edvin Kurtulus0%
Filip Kaloč0%
Ivan Yordanov0%
Idan Nachmias0%
Emerson Rodríguez0%
Filip Gigov0%
Simeon Shishkov0%
Vinicius Nogueira0%
Matheus Machado Ferreira0%
Alberto Salido0%
Slavia Sofia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Isaac Solet50%
Toni Tasev25%
Yanis Guermouche19%
Emil Stoev18%
Kristiyan Balov18%
David Malembana17%
Luka Ivanov17%
Ivan Minchev14%
Iliyan Stefanov11%
Emilian Gogev11%
Roberto Raychev10%
Lazar Marin5%
Vladimir Medved0%
Denislav Aleksandrov0%
Levi Ntumba0%
Diego Ferraresso0%
Nikola Savić0%
Ivan Andonov0%
Mouhamed Dosso0%
Jordan Semedo Varela0%
Kristiyan Stoyanov0%
Artyom Varganov0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Boris Todorov0%
Vasil Kazaldzhiev0%
Marko Miletic0%
Georgi Shopov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lazar Marin24%
Emil Stoev18%
David Malembana17%
Isaac Solet17%
Martin Georgiev17%
Yanis Guermouche14%
Georgi Shopov14%
Levi Ntumba12%
Iliyan Stefanov11%
Mouhamed Dosso11%
Kristiyan Stoyanov11%
Boris Todorov11%
Marko Miletic11%
Ivan Minchev10%
Nikola Savić7%
Jordan Semedo Varela7%
Diego Ferraresso6%
Roberto Raychev5%
Vladimir Medved0%
Toni Tasev0%
Denislav Aleksandrov0%
Ivan Andonov0%
Luka Ivanov0%
Kristiyan Balov0%
Artyom Varganov0%
Vasil Kazaldzhiev0%
Emilian Gogev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Toni Tasev25%
Vladimir Medved20%
Ivan Minchev19%
Kristiyan Balov14%
Boris Todorov11%
Emil Stoev9%
Martin Georgiev8%
Mouhamed Dosso6%
Yanis Guermouche5%
Denislav Aleksandrov0%
Iliyan Stefanov0%
Lazar Marin0%
Levi Ntumba0%
David Malembana0%
Diego Ferraresso0%
Nikola Savić0%
Isaac Solet0%
Ivan Andonov0%
Luka Ivanov0%
Jordan Semedo Varela0%
Roberto Raychev0%
Kristiyan Stoyanov0%
Artyom Varganov0%
Vasil Kazaldzhiev0%
Marko Miletic0%
Emilian Gogev0%
Georgi Shopov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Toni Tasev25%
Iliyan Stefanov11%
Yanis Guermouche10%
Roberto Raychev5%
Lazar Marin5%
Kristiyan Balov5%
Vladimir Medved0%
Denislav Aleksandrov0%
Ivan Minchev0%
Emil Stoev0%
Levi Ntumba0%
David Malembana0%
Diego Ferraresso0%
Nikola Savić0%
Isaac Solet0%
Ivan Andonov0%
Luka Ivanov0%
Mouhamed Dosso0%
Jordan Semedo Varela0%
Kristiyan Stoyanov0%
Artyom Varganov0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Boris Todorov0%
Vasil Kazaldzhiev0%
Marko Miletic0%
Emilian Gogev0%
Georgi Shopov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Ludogorets's squad is €39m more valuable than Slavia Sofia's (€46m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Ludogorets's attack is €25m more valuable than Slavia Sofia's (€27m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Ludogorets's midfield is €4m more valuable than Slavia Sofia's (€6m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Ludogorets's defence is €10m more valuable than Slavia Sofia's (€13m vs €3m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Levski Sofia
CSKA Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv