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Luftëtari vs Pogradeci Result & Analysis

Date: 03/05/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 3-0
Luftëtari
Luftëtari
Vs
23%
24%
53%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Pogradeci
Pogradeci
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Luftëtari a 23% win probability against Pogradeci in the Albania: 1st Division on 2026-05-03, with 24% for the draw and 53% for Pogradeci. The model estimates around 3.2 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.0%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (84%).

Results analysis

Luftëtari finished 3-0 against Pogradeci (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 23% home win, 24% draw and 53% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (84%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Luftëtari win✓ Hit
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci win✗ Miss
52.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LuftëtariLuftëtari

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L03L00D00D22D01L23L21W20W21WA·LAC21/02H·SKE01/03A·FK 07/03A·LUS14/03H·APO18/03A·KOR22/03H·BES05/04A·ILI11/04H·BUR19/04A·KAS25/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.371.141.571.001.19
vs Stronger (21)0.951.430.911.641.001.20
vs Similar (9)1.331.222.001.331.001.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PogradeciPogradeci

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W21W41W32W30W30W51W51W02L11DH·LUS21/02A·APO28/02H·KOR07/03A·BES14/03H·ILI18/03A·BUR22/03H·KAS04/04H·FK 11/04A·LAC19/04H·SKE25/04
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.100.932.250.621.931.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.670.830.670.670.671.00
vs Weaker (24)2.460.962.620.622.271.36
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Luftëtari) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.5%
Under 2.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.2%
Under 3.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.8%
No
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
7.8%
0-1
7.1%
1-3
6.3%
2-1
6.2%
2-2
6.0%
0-0
5.2%
Luftëtari goals ↓
Pogradeci goals →
01234
05.2%7.1%7.8%5.1%2.4%
14.2%11%9.7%6.3%3.0%
23.2%6.2%6.0%3.9%1.9%
31.3%2.6%2.5%1.6%0.8%
40.4%0.8%0.8%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Luftëtari goals (down), columns = Pogradeci goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laci
2.39
Skenderbeu Korce
2.33
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
Luftëtari
1.03
Bylis B
1.00
FK Kukesi
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Apolonia Fier
0.85
Lushnja
0.79
Butrinti Sarandë
0.00
Luftëtari is 1.03 points worse than Pogradeci in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 2.06).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Laci
1.82
Skenderbeu Korce
1.73
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Luftëtari
1.12
Bylis B
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Apolonia Fier
0.94
Burreli
0.82
Lushnja
0.79
Butrinti Sarandë
0.00
Luftëtari is 0.79 goals worse than Pogradeci in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.91).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laci
0.70
Skenderbeu Korce
0.76
Pogradeci
0.94
Bylis B
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Luftëtari
1.29
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Apolonia Fier
1.33
Burreli
1.36
Lushnja
1.42
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
Butrinti Sarandë
2.00
Luftëtari is 0.35 goals worse than Pogradeci in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 0.94).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (55)
€6m
SK (31)
€4m
LAC (24)
€3m
POG (47)
€3m
BK (34)
€3m
AF (39)
€2m
KK (24)
€2m
KP (34)
€2m
FK (38)
€2m
IF (35)
€2m
BUR (29)
€2m
LUF (42)
€2m
LUS (40)
€1m
Luftëtari's squad is €1m less valuable than Pogradeci's (€2m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAC (0)
€0m
SK (0)
€0m
AF (0)
€0m
BK (0)
€0m
BUR (0)
€0m
BB (0)
€0m
FK (0)
€0m
IF (0)
€0m
KK (0)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
LUF (0)
€0m
LUS (0)
€0m
POG (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAC (0)
€0m
SK (0)
€0m
AF (0)
€0m
BK (0)
€0m
BUR (0)
€0m
BB (0)
€0m
FK (0)
€0m
IF (0)
€0m
KK (0)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
LUF (0)
€0m
LUS (0)
€0m
POG (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAC (0)
€0m
SK (0)
€0m
AF (0)
€0m
BK (0)
€0m
BUR (0)
€0m
BB (0)
€0m
FK (0)
€0m
IF (0)
€0m
KK (0)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
LUF (0)
€0m
LUS (0)
€0m
POG (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Luftëtari vs Pogradeci · H/A from LUF
DateH/AGameScore
20/12/25HLUF Vs Pogradeci2-3
03/10/25APogradeci Vs LUF2-3

LuftëtariLuftëtari

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26AKastrioti Krujë Vs LUF1-2
19/04/26HLUF Vs Burreli2-0
11/04/26AIliria Fushë-Krujë Vs LUF1-2
05/04/26HLUF Vs Besa Kavajë2-3
22/03/26AKorabi Peshkopi Vs LUF1-0
18/03/26HLUF Vs Apolonia Fier2-2
14/03/26ALushnja Vs LUF0-0
07/03/26AFK Kukesi Vs LUF0-0
01/03/26HLUF Vs Skenderbeu Korce0-3
21/02/26ALaci Vs LUF2-1

PogradeciPogradeci

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26HPOG Vs Skenderbeu Korce1-1
19/04/26ALaci Vs POG2-0
11/04/26HPOG Vs FK Kukesi5-1
04/04/26HPOG Vs Kastrioti Krujë5-1
22/03/26ABurreli Vs POG0-3
18/03/26HPOG Vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë3-0
14/03/26ABesa Kavajë Vs POG2-3
07/03/26HPOG Vs Korabi Peshkopi4-1
28/02/26AApolonia Fier Vs POG1-2
21/02/26HPOG Vs Lushnja3-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Luftëtari
Luftëtari
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW0.94
HomeWLDLW0.87
AwayDDLWW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%20%17%
AVG goals2.452.672.28
Over 1.5 %76%80%72%
Over 2.5 %48%60%39%
Over 3.5 %24%27%22%
Scored1.061.131.00
Conceded1.391.531.28
BTTS67%60%72%
Clean Sheet15%20%11%
Corners---
Cards---
Pogradeci
Pogradeci
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLD2.00
HomeWWWWD2.08
AwayDWWWL1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%60%56%
AVG goals2.542.442.64
Over 1.5 %66%60%72%
Over 2.5 %52%44%60%
Over 3.5 %30%32%28%
Scored1.681.881.48
Conceded0.860.561.16
BTTS46%36%56%
Clean Sheet42%56%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaciLaci3379
73%
2.4
6023+37
2.5
73%
52%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.80.7
-
2Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce3377
73%
2.3
5725+32
2.5
64%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.70.8
-
3PogradeciPogradeci3368
61%
2.1
6331+32
2.8
76%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.90.9
-
4Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë3345
33%
1.4
3233-1
2.0
67%
36%
6%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.01.0
-
5Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3339
30%
1.2
4143-2
2.5
70%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.21.3
-
6Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3339
33%
1.2
4457-13
3.1
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.31.7
-
7BurreliBurreli3337
27%
1.1
2745-18
2.2
64%
36%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0000.81.4
-
8Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3336
24%
1.1
3139-8
2.1
64%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0000.91.2
-
9LuftëtariLuftëtari3435
21%
1.0
3844-6
2.4
76%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.11.3
-
10FK KukesiFK Kukesi3535
26%
1.0
3451-17
2.4
74%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.01.5
-
11Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3328
18%
0.8
3144-13
2.3
70%
39%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0000.91.3
-
12LushnjaLushnja3326
15%
0.8
2647-21
2.2
61%
39%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.4
-
13Bylis BBylis B11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
0001.01.0
-
14Sopoti LibrazhdSopoti Librazhd11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
15Butrinti SarandëButrinti Sarandë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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