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Lushnja vs Kastrioti Krujë Result & Analysis

Date: 03/05/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 1-4
Lushnja
Lushnja
Vs
45%
29%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Lushnja a 45% win probability against Kastrioti Krujë in the Albania: 1st Division on 2026-05-03, with 29% for the draw and 26% for Kastrioti Krujë. The model estimates around 2.4 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.9%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (77%), Over 1.5 (71%).

Results analysis

Lushnja finished 1-4 against Kastrioti Krujë (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 45% home win, 29% draw and 26% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (71%). Missed: Under 3.5 (77%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lushnja win✗ Miss
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë win✓ Hit
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LushnjaLushnja

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L15L02L00D23L00D21W00D03L01LA·POG21/02H·LAC28/02A·SKE07/03H·LUF14/03A·FK 18/03A·APO21/03H·KOR04/04A·BES11/04H·ILI19/04A·BUR25/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.400.791.290.811.50
vs Stronger (10)0.802.100.502.251.002.00
vs Similar (20)0.801.050.900.900.701.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W01L23L01L52W02L15L12L04L12LH·APO22/02A·KOR28/02H·BES07/03A·ILI14/03H·BUR18/03H·FK 22/03A·POG04/04H·LAC11/04A·SKE19/04H·LUF25/04
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.731.711.470.692.08
vs Stronger (10)1.402.902.002.330.503.75
vs Similar (20)1.201.151.551.000.781.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lushnja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.1%
Under 1.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.9%
Under 2.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.8%
Under 3.5
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
11.2%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.8%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.5%
Lushnja goals ↓
Kastrioti Krujë goals →
01234
010%7.6%4.5%1.5%0.4%
111%14%6.4%2.2%0.5%
28.8%9.0%4.5%1.5%0.4%
34.2%4.2%2.1%0.7%0.2%
41.5%1.5%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lushnja goals (down), columns = Kastrioti Krujë goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laci
2.39
Skenderbeu Korce
2.33
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
Luftëtari
1.03
Bylis B
1.00
FK Kukesi
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Apolonia Fier
0.85
Lushnja
0.79
Butrinti Sarandë
0.00
Lushnja is 0.39 points worse than Kastrioti Krujë in terms of average points per game (0.79 vs 1.18).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Laci
1.82
Skenderbeu Korce
1.73
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Luftëtari
1.12
Bylis B
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Apolonia Fier
0.94
Burreli
0.82
Lushnja
0.79
Butrinti Sarandë
0.00
Lushnja is 0.55 goals worse than Kastrioti Krujë in terms of goals scored per game (0.79 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laci
0.70
Skenderbeu Korce
0.76
Pogradeci
0.94
Bylis B
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Luftëtari
1.29
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Apolonia Fier
1.33
Burreli
1.36
Lushnja
1.42
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
Butrinti Sarandë
2.00
Lushnja is 0.30 goals better than Kastrioti Krujë in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.73).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LushnjaLushnja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L01L00D12L00D10W00D01L01LA·POG21/02H·LAC28/02A·SKE07/03H·LUF14/03A·FK 18/03A·APO21/03H·KOR04/04A·BES11/04H·ILI19/04A·BUR25/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.670.210.430.620.88
vs Stronger (10)0.501.100.001.250.831.00
vs Similar (20)0.400.450.300.100.500.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D02L01L21W01L12L02L02L10WH·APO22/02A·KOR28/02H·BES07/03A·ILI14/03H·BUR18/03H·FK 22/03A·POG04/04H·LAC11/04A·SKE19/04H·LUF25/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.730.820.710.230.77
vs Stronger (10)0.701.201.001.170.251.25
vs Similar (20)0.500.500.730.450.220.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Lushnja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lushnja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lushnja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lushnja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.2%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.571.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (55)
€6m
SK (31)
€4m
LAC (24)
€3m
POG (47)
€3m
BK (34)
€3m
AF (39)
€2m
KK (24)
€2m
KP (34)
€2m
FK (38)
€2m
IF (35)
€2m
BUR (29)
€2m
LUF (42)
€2m
LUS (40)
€1m
Lushnja and Kastrioti Krujë have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAC (0)
€0m
SK (0)
€0m
AF (0)
€0m
BK (0)
€0m
BUR (0)
€0m
BB (0)
€0m
FK (0)
€0m
IF (0)
€0m
KK (0)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
LUF (0)
€0m
LUS (0)
€0m
POG (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAC (0)
€0m
SK (0)
€0m
AF (0)
€0m
BK (0)
€0m
BUR (0)
€0m
BB (0)
€0m
FK (0)
€0m
IF (0)
€0m
KK (0)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
LUF (0)
€0m
LUS (0)
€0m
POG (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAC (0)
€0m
SK (0)
€0m
AF (0)
€0m
BK (0)
€0m
BUR (0)
€0m
BB (0)
€0m
FK (0)
€0m
IF (0)
€0m
KK (0)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
LUF (0)
€0m
LUS (0)
€0m
POG (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Lushnja vs Kastrioti Krujë · H/A from LUS
DateH/AGameScore
20/12/25AKastrioti Krujë Vs LUS2-1
04/10/25HLUS Vs Kastrioti Krujë3-2
15/02/25HLUS Vs Kastrioti Krujë1-0
30/11/24HLUS Vs Kastrioti Krujë2-0
11/09/24AKastrioti Krujë Vs LUS2-1
04/05/24HLUS Vs Kastrioti Krujë0-0
11/02/24AKastrioti Krujë Vs LUS1-1
29/10/23HLUS Vs Kastrioti Krujë3-1

LushnjaLushnja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26ABurreli Vs LUS1-0
19/04/26HLUS Vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë0-3
11/04/26ABesa Kavajë Vs LUS0-0
04/04/26HLUS Vs Korabi Peshkopi2-1
21/03/26AApolonia Fier Vs LUS0-0
18/03/26AFK Kukesi Vs LUS3-2
14/03/26HLUS Vs Luftëtari0-0
07/03/26ASkenderbeu Korce Vs LUS2-0
28/02/26HLUS Vs Laci1-5
21/02/26APogradeci Vs LUS3-1

Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26HKK Vs Luftëtari1-2
19/04/26ASkenderbeu Korce Vs KK4-0
11/04/26HKK Vs Laci1-2
04/04/26APogradeci Vs KK5-1
22/03/26HKK Vs FK Kukesi0-2
18/03/26HKK Vs Burreli5-2
14/03/26AIliria Fushë-Krujë Vs KK1-0
07/03/26HKK Vs Besa Kavajë2-3
28/02/26AKorabi Peshkopi Vs KK1-0
22/02/26HKK Vs Apolonia Fier1-0

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Lushnja
Lushnja
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLL0.98
HomeLLDWL1.04
AwayLLDDL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%29%19%
AVG goals2.422.382.46
Over 1.5 %62%58%65%
Over 2.5 %48%46%50%
Over 3.5 %24%25%23%
Scored0.960.921.00
Conceded1.461.461.46
BTTS46%38%54%
Clean Sheet26%25%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.08
HomeLWLLL1.65
AwayLLLLL0.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%46%12%
AVG goals2.762.732.79
Over 1.5 %70%73%67%
Over 2.5 %54%50%58%
Over 3.5 %30%27%33%
Scored1.141.500.75
Conceded1.621.232.04
BTTS56%65%46%
Clean Sheet20%27%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaciLaci3379
73%
2.4
6023+37
2.5
73%
52%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.80.7
-
2Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce3377
73%
2.3
5725+32
2.5
64%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.70.8
-
3PogradeciPogradeci3368
61%
2.1
6331+32
2.8
76%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.90.9
-
4Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë3345
33%
1.4
3233-1
2.0
67%
36%
6%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.01.0
-
5Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3339
30%
1.2
4143-2
2.5
70%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.21.3
-
6Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3339
33%
1.2
4457-13
3.1
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.31.7
-
7BurreliBurreli3337
27%
1.1
2745-18
2.2
64%
36%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0000.81.4
-
8Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3336
24%
1.1
3139-8
2.1
64%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0000.91.2
-
9LuftëtariLuftëtari3435
21%
1.0
3844-6
2.4
76%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.11.3
-
10FK KukesiFK Kukesi3535
26%
1.0
3451-17
2.4
74%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.01.5
-
11Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3328
18%
0.8
3144-13
2.3
70%
39%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0000.91.3
-
12LushnjaLushnja3326
15%
0.8
2647-21
2.2
61%
39%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.4
-
13Bylis BBylis B11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
0001.01.0
-
14Sopoti LibrazhdSopoti Librazhd11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
15Butrinti SarandëButrinti Sarandë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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