The clash between Lusitânia Lourosa and AVS is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The probability split is 37% for Lusitânia, 28% for a draw, and 35% for AVS. The expected total is 2.7 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.5% chance. Home form shows Lusitânia scoring 1.17 and conceding 1.58 against similar opposition, while AVS on the road averages 1.25 scored and 1.5 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.1% with a 6% edge), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.4% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.3% with a 4% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (95.4% with no edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (95.1% with a 3% edge). Both sides have recently won their opening matches, adding to the intrigue.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lusitânia Lourosa win
36.5%
Avg Implied 43.1% · @ 2.12
Edge
-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
Unibet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Draw
28.3%
Avg Implied 29.3% · @ 3.13
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.24
1xBet
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Betano
3.15
AVS win
35.1%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.31
Edge
+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.48
Marathonbet
3.40
1xBet
3.38
Betfair
3.30
Betano
3.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lusitânia Lourosa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.37
1.20
1.33
1.60
1.40
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
0.60
1.33
0.33
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.33
1.58
1.17
1.58
1.50
1.58
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (AVS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AVS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.60
0.93
1.14
0.88
2.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
2.15
1.00
1.60
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (17)
1.06
1.18
0.89
0.89
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lusitânia Lourosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.2%
@ 1.35+7.9%
Under 1.5
23.8%
@ 2.90-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.98
Unibet
2.95
BetVictor
2.88
Betano
2.85
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.4%
@ 2.14+6.7%
Under 2.5
49.6%
@ 1.66-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Betano
2.18
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Under
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.4%
@ 3.85+4.4%
Under 3.5
71.6%
@ 1.21-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.98
1xBet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.85
Under
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
Both teams to score
Yes
55.9%
@ 1.85+6.1%
No
44.1%
@ 1.84-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.87
BetVictor
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
No
Unibet
1.89
William Hil
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.84
BetVictor
1.83
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 5.68+5.7%
2-1
8.4%@ 8.43+3.1%
1-2
8.2%@ 11.14+4.2%
0-0
8.0%@ 7.66+2.2%
1-0
8.0%@ 6.21+0.9%
0-1
7.8%@ 8.13+2.3%
2-0
6.3%@ 9.22+1.5%
0-2
6.0%@ 15.46+3.1%
Lusitânia Lourosa goals ↓
AVS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
7.8%
6.0%
2.7%
0.9%
1
8.0%
14%
8.2%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.3%
8.4%
5.6%
2.5%
0.8%
3
2.8%
3.8%
2.5%
1.1%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lusitânia Lourosa goals (down), columns = AVS goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Torreense
1.74
AVS
1.50
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Tondela
1.36
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Academica
0.98
Amarante
0.82
Lusitânia Lourosa is 0.24 points worse than AVS in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
União de Leiria
1.53
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
AVS
1.30
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Tondela
1.17
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Farense
0.89
Academica
0.85
Amarante
0.71
Lusitânia Lourosa is 0.01 goals worse than AVS in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torreense
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
AVS
1.05
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Tondela
1.16
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Portimonense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Academica
1.61
Leixoes
1.62
Amarante
1.92
Lusitânia Lourosa is 0.48 goals worse than AVS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.05).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lusitânia Lourosa
For 5.6 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 16.1 · Total 30.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AVS
For 3.7 · Against 6.1 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 9.0 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lusitânia Lourosa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (46)
10.4
9.4
11.5
4.9
4.5
5.3
30.1
31.6
28.3
vs Stronger (7)
10.0
-
10.0
8.4
7.2
10.0
37.0
-
37.0
vs Similar (37)
10.4
9.4
11.8
4.3
4.0
4.6
29.5
31.6
26.6
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
4.0
-
4.0
-
-
-
% over line
54%
43%
67%
72%
67%
77%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
46%
57%
33%
28%
33%
23%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (AVS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AVS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
8.8
10.7
4.7
5.6
3.9
25.1
26.8
23.6
vs Stronger (19)
9.7
7.9
10.9
3.8
4.1
3.6
22.5
22.4
22.5
vs Similar (31)
9.8
9.2
10.4
5.3
6.4
4.1
27.0
29.0
24.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
38%
61%
64%
75%
54%
73%
81%
65%
% under line
50%
62%
39%
36%
25%
46%
27%
19%
35%
This opponent (Lusitânia Lourosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.5
Portimonense
11.1
Torreense
11.0
Farense
10.9
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.3
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.8
Benfica B
9.6
Tondela
9.6
AVS
9.6
Leixoes
9.0
Feirense
9.0
Chaves
8.8
Sporting CP B
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
6.7
Feirense
6.5
Vizela
6.3
Chaves
6.1
Leixoes
6.1
FC Porto B
6.0
Sporting CP B
6.0
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.9
Felgueiras 1932
5.9
Farense
5.7
União de Leiria
5.6
Portimonense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
Torreense
5.2
Tondela
5.2
AVS
5.1
Academica
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Farense
31.1
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Leixoes
26.4
Tondela
25.7
AVS
25.5
Sporting CP B
25.0
União de Leiria
24.1
Felgueiras 1932
23.5
Penafiel
22.9
FC Porto B
21.9
Portimonense
21.8
Benfica B
21.2
Torreense
21.1
Chaves
20.9
Vizela
20.8
Feirense
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.8%
@ 3.12+20.3%
Under 9.5
50.2%
@ 1.30-20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.20
1xBet
3.04
Under
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.29
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
79.7%
Under 3.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
79.9%
Under 21.5
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lusitânia Lourosa or Draw
64.9%
Avg Implied 71.7% · @ 1.29
Edge
-6.8%
37%
28%
35%
covers Lusitânia Lourosa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Lusitânia Lourosa or AVS
71.7%
Avg Implied 70.8% · @ 1.31
Edge
+0.9%
37%
28%
35%
covers Lusitânia Lourosa + AVS
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Draw or AVS
63.5%
Avg Implied 57.6% · @ 1.61
Edge
+5.9%
37%
28%
35%
covers Draw + AVS
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Betfair
1.62
BetVictor
1.62
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 0.5
Over
74.3%
@ 1.26+0.7%
Under
25.7%
@ 3.52-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.64
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Betfair
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 1.5
Over
39.4%
@ 2.29-1.0%
Under
60.6%
@ 1.56+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.38
Pinnacle
2.37
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.31
BetVictor
2.30
Under
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
BetVictor
1.55
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 2.5
Over
15.7%
@ 5.35-1.7%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.12+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
BetVictor
5.40
1xBet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 3.5
Over
4.9%
@ 12.25-2.9%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
AVS over/under 0.5
Over
73.6%
@ 1.46+9.8%
Under
26.4%
@ 2.57-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
Betano
1.45
Under
Pinnacle
2.64
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.60
Marathonbet
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
AVS over/under 1.5
Over
38.4%
@ 3.20+9.4%
Under
61.6%
@ 1.30-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.37
BetVictor
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
Betfair
3.25
Under
Betano
1.34
Unibet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
AVS over/under 2.5
Over
15.0%
@ 8.98+4.6%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.04-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Marathonbet
9.20
1xBet
9.00
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
AVS over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
@ 19.00-0.5%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.01+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lusitânia Lourosa, so a minus line means Lusitânia Lourosa give that many goals of a start and AVS receive them. At -1, Lusitânia Lourosa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lusitânia Lourosa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lusitânia Lourosa)
Lusitânia Lourosa -2
6.2%
@ 9.00-3.5%
Draw -2
11.0%
@ 5.77-4.1%
AVS +2
82.7%
@ 1.16+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
4.30
Away
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (Lusitânia Lourosa)
Lusitânia Lourosa -1
17.3%
@ 4.25-3.4%
Draw -1
19.3%
@ 3.62-4.9%
AVS +1
63.5%
@ 1.58+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Unibet
3.45
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.74
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.15
Away
Marathonbet
1.65
Betfair
1.62
Unibet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Handicap +1 (Lusitânia Lourosa)
Lusitânia Lourosa +1
64.9%
@ 1.28-3.8%
Draw +1
18.8%
@ 4.62-0.2%
AVS -1
16.3%
@ 7.10+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.25
Draw
Marathonbet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
3.85
Away
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
Unibet
5.40
Handicap +2 (Lusitânia Lourosa)
Lusitânia Lourosa +2
83.7%
@ 1.07-3.4%
Draw +2
10.5%
@ 11.00+2.1%
AVS -2
5.8%
@ 21.00+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Away
Bet365
21.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lusitânia Lourosa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.47
0.40
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.58
0.42
0.50
0.75
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (AVS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AVS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.73
0.29
0.43
0.19
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.00
0.40
0.60
0.12
1.25
vs Similar (17)
0.24
0.53
0.22
0.33
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Lusitânia Lourosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.2%
@ 1.44+5.9%
Under 0.5
29.8%
@ 2.58-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
BetVictor
1.46
1xBet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Under
William Hil
2.70
Pinnacle
2.69
Betfair
2.63
Unibet
2.60
1xBet
2.54
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.4%
@ 3.12+2.6%
Under 1.5
67.6%
@ 1.32-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.22
Betfair
3.20
Betano
3.20
Marathonbet
3.16
1xBet
3.16
Under
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.34
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.1%
@ 8.28-0.1%
Under 2.5
88.9%
@ 1.04+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.50
William Hil
8.50
Marathonbet
8.50
BetVictor
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Under
William Hil
1.07
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.6%
@ 2.03-0.2%
Under
54.4%
@ 1.72+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.5%
@ 6.70-3.3%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.08+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.00
1xBet
7.00
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
@ 12.00-5.9%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.02+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
AVS over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.6%
@ 2.50+9.5%
Under
53.4%
@ 1.47-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.60
Betano
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
1xBet
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.44
AVS over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.3%
@ 9.55+1.6%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.03-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.00
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
AVS over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lusitânia Lourosa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.90
0.73
0.93
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.60
0.67
0.33
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.75
1.00
0.75
1.08
0.75
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (AVS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AVS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.64
0.71
0.69
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.15
0.60
1.00
0.38
1.25
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.65
0.67
0.56
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lusitânia Lourosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.8%
@ 1.28+5.3%
Under 0.5
22.2%
@ 3.38-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Under
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.45
Marathonbet
3.42
1xBet
3.42
William Hil
3.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.2%
@ 2.34+4.6%
Under 1.5
55.8%
@ 1.54-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.40
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.32
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
William Hil
1.50
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.8%
@ 5.30-0.7%
Under 2.5
83.2%
@ 1.12+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
William Hil
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.30
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.3%
@ 1.72-4.4%
Under
50.7%
@ 2.00+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Under
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.8%
@ 4.55-4.6%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.16+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.6%
@ 9.75-6.0%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.03+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
AVS over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.6%
@ 2.06+7.6%
Under
47.4%
@ 1.69-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.06
Betano
2.02
Under
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.65
AVS over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.3%
@ 6.63+3.3%
Under
82.7%
@ 1.08-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
1xBet
6.80
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
AVS over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.7%
@ 11.75-4.3%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.9%
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.0%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.3%
Away under 3.5 goals
95.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+0.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
+2.9%
Under 5.5
94.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+0.7%
Over 2.5 cards
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.08
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-
+3.3%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.9%
1.04
William Hil
1.07
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
+0.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.03
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
-1.6%
Under 4.5
86.4%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
BetVictor
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-2.0%
Away under 2.5 goals
85.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
-4.6%
Home under 2.5 goals
84.3%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
+1.7%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.2%
1.16
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-
+4.6%
Home +2 handicap
83.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-3.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.2%
1.12
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
+0.7%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.7%
1.08
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-
-3.3%
Away +2 handicap
82.7%
1.16
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-
-
+7.6%
Over 21.5 fouls
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.8%
1.28
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
+5.3%
Over 1.5
76.2%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
+7.9%
Home over 0.5 goals
74.3%
1.26
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
+0.7%
Under 11.5 corners
73.6%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
-14.2%
Away over 0.5 goals
73.6%
1.46
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
Betano
1.45
+9.8%
Home or Away
71.7%
1.31
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
+0.9%
Under 3.5
71.6%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
-4.4%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
1.44
Betano
1.52
BetVictor
1.46
1xBet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
+5.9%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lusitânia Lourosa · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
João Silva27%
João Vasco25%
Tiago Dias23%
Arsénio Nunes20%
Fabinho18%
Miguel Pereira17%
Luís Rocha0%
Higor Platiny0%
Ibrahim Alhassan Abdullahi0%
Tiago Mesquita0%
Rodrigo Martins0%
Silvério Junio0%
Josué Sá0%
Daniel0%
Tiago Cerveira0%
Dylan Collard0%
Alan Do Marcolino0%
Jose Campelo Doria0%
Vitor Hugo0%
Gonçalo Braga0%
Bruno Faria0%
Aly Palacios0%
Miguel Teixeira0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel43%
Bruno Faria43%
Jose Campelo Doria36%
Rodrigo Martins33%
Silvério Junio27%
Tiago Dias23%
Arsénio Nunes20%
Luís Rocha18%
Tiago Cerveira18%
Vitor Hugo15%
Dylan Collard14%
João Silva9%
João Vasco8%
Miguel Pereira8%
Miguel Teixeira8%
Higor Platiny0%
Ibrahim Alhassan Abdullahi0%
Tiago Mesquita0%
Fabinho0%
Josué Sá0%
Alan Do Marcolino0%
Gonçalo Braga0%
Aly Palacios0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Arsénio Nunes20%
Rodrigo Martins17%
Miguel Pereira17%
Tiago Dias15%
Fabinho9%
Tiago Cerveira9%
Luís Rocha0%
Higor Platiny0%
Ibrahim Alhassan Abdullahi0%
Tiago Mesquita0%
João Silva0%
Silvério Junio0%
Josué Sá0%
Daniel0%
João Vasco0%
Dylan Collard0%
Alan Do Marcolino0%
Jose Campelo Doria0%
Vitor Hugo0%
Gonçalo Braga0%
Bruno Faria0%
Aly Palacios0%
Miguel Teixeira0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
João Silva27%
Miguel Pereira17%
Tiago Dias8%
Luís Rocha0%
Arsénio Nunes0%
Higor Platiny0%
Ibrahim Alhassan Abdullahi0%
Tiago Mesquita0%
Fabinho0%
Rodrigo Martins0%
Silvério Junio0%
Josué Sá0%
Daniel0%
João Vasco0%
Tiago Cerveira0%
Dylan Collard0%
Alan Do Marcolino0%
Jose Campelo Doria0%
Vitor Hugo0%
Gonçalo Braga0%
Bruno Faria0%
Aly Palacios0%
Miguel Teixeira0%
AVS · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pedro Lima19%
Nenê18%
Tomané13%
Sidi Bane11%
Diego Duarte11%
Guilherme Neiva8%
Rafael Barbosa8%
Diogo Spencer8%
Óscar Perea8%
Aderllan Santos6%
Roni6%
Ángel Algobia5%
Tunde Akinsola3%
Gustavo Assunção0%
Jaume Grau0%
Simão0%
Andre Green0%
Rúben Semedo0%
Kiki Afonso0%
Ponck0%
Bruno Lourenço0%
Kobamelo Kodisang0%
Leonardo Rivas0%
João Gonçalves0%
Mateus Pivô0%
Adriel0%
Guillem Molina0%
Jordi Escobar0%
Cristian Castro0%
Tiago Galletto0%
Paulo Vitor0%
Gustavo Mendonca0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gustavo Assunção40%
Rúben Semedo33%
Gustavo Mendonca27%
Jaume Grau26%
Roni24%
Simão23%
Leonardo Rivas22%
Cristian Castro22%
Paulo Vitor22%
Mateus Pivô21%
Andre Green20%
Ponck19%
Pedro Lima19%
Tiago Galletto18%
Tomané17%
Rafael Barbosa15%
Diogo Spencer15%
Adriel12%
Aderllan Santos12%
Sidi Bane11%
Nenê9%
Guilherme Neiva8%
Kiki Afonso7%
Tunde Akinsola6%
Ángel Algobia0%
Bruno Lourenço0%
Kobamelo Kodisang0%
João Gonçalves0%
Guillem Molina0%
Jordi Escobar0%
Diego Duarte0%
Óscar Perea0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rafael Barbosa15%
Diogo Spencer15%
Guilherme Neiva12%
Tunde Akinsola11%
Pedro Lima7%
Adriel6%
Nenê5%
Leonardo Rivas4%
Diego Duarte4%
Tomané3%
Gustavo Assunção0%
Jaume Grau0%
Simão0%
Andre Green0%
Rúben Semedo0%
Kiki Afonso0%
Ponck0%
Aderllan Santos0%
Ángel Algobia0%
Bruno Lourenço0%
Kobamelo Kodisang0%
João Gonçalves0%
Mateus Pivô0%
Guillem Molina0%
Jordi Escobar0%
Cristian Castro0%
Tiago Galletto0%
Roni0%
Paulo Vitor0%
Óscar Perea0%
Sidi Bane0%
Gustavo Mendonca0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nenê14%
Tunde Akinsola11%
Rafael Barbosa8%
Óscar Perea8%
Aderllan Santos6%
Roni6%
Jaume Grau5%
Guilherme Neiva4%
Pedro Lima4%
Tomané3%
Gustavo Assunção0%
Simão0%
Andre Green0%
Rúben Semedo0%
Kiki Afonso0%
Ponck0%
Ángel Algobia0%
Bruno Lourenço0%
Kobamelo Kodisang0%
Leonardo Rivas0%
João Gonçalves0%
Mateus Pivô0%
Adriel0%
Guillem Molina0%
Jordi Escobar0%
Cristian Castro0%
Tiago Galletto0%
Diego Duarte0%
Paulo Vitor0%
Diogo Spencer0%
Sidi Bane0%
Gustavo Mendonca0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
SCB (23)
€17m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
AMA (6)
€1m
Lusitânia Lourosa's squad is €2m less valuable than AVS's (€5m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
TOR (12)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
SCB (9)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
Lusitânia Lourosa's attack is €2m less valuable than AVS's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SCB (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
Lusitânia Lourosa and AVS have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
SCB (9)
€7m
TON (9)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
ACA (4)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Lusitânia Lourosa and AVS have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Academica
Sporting CP B
Penafiel
Farense
Vizela
Benfica B
Portimonense
União de Leiria
Felgueiras 1932
Leixoes
Amarante
Tondela
FC Porto B
Torreense
Feirense
Chaves