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Lusitânia Lourosa vs Torreense Result & Analysis

Date: 09/05/2026
Time: 19:30
Final 1-2
Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
Vs
22%
31%
47%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Torreense
Torreense
Portugal: Segunda Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Lusitânia Lourosa a 22% win probability against Torreense in the Portugal: Segunda Liga on 2026-05-09, with 31% for the draw and 47% for Torreense. The model estimates around 2.2 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.0%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 21.5 fouls (86%), Under 3.5 (82%), Over 3.5 cards (81%).

Results analysis

Lusitânia Lourosa finished 1-2 against Torreense (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 22% home win, 31% draw and 47% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (82%), Over 3.5 cards (81%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lusitânia Lourosa win✗ Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Torreense win✓ Hit
47.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Lusitânia LourosaLusitânia Lourosa

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W12L10W34L03L00D11D23L20W00DH·FEI22/02A·FAR01/03H·SPO08/03A·VIZ15/03H·ACA21/03A·UNI05/04H·FC 13/04A·POR19/04H·PAC26/04A·OLI02/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.531.071.271.531.80
vs Stronger (7)1.141.141.000.671.251.50
vs Similar (21)1.481.761.181.451.802.10
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Torreense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TorreenseTorreense

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L30W10W30W11D02L10W00D32WH·BEN21/02H·FC 28/02A·OLI07/03H·POR16/03A·FEL22/03H·LEI06/04A·CHA11/04H·MAR18/04A·FEI28/04H·PEN04/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.031.401.131.070.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.361.361.401.001.331.67
vs Weaker (19)1.160.841.401.200.890.44
Clean sheet %37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Lusitânia Lourosa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%022%128%220%311%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.4%
Under 1.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.3%
Under 2.5
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.7%
Under 3.5
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.3%
No
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-1
13.9%
0-0
12.5%
0-2
10.2%
1-2 ✓
8.5%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
5.3%
0-3
4.6%
Lusitânia Lourosa goals ↓
Torreense goals →
01234
013%14%10%4.6%1.5%
18.2%14%8.5%3.8%1.3%
24.0%5.3%3.6%1.6%0.5%
31.1%1.5%1.0%0.4%0.2%
40.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lusitânia Lourosa goals (down), columns = Torreense goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maritimo
1.94
Torreense
1.74
Academico Viseu
1.74
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Pacos Ferreira
1.15
Oliveirense
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
0.50
Lusitânia Lourosa is 0.47 points worse than Torreense in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.74).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Academico Viseu
1.71
União de Leiria
1.53
Maritimo
1.47
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Farense
0.89
CF Os Belenenses
0.00
Lusitânia Lourosa is 0.06 goals worse than Torreense in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.35).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
CF Os Belenenses
0.50
Maritimo
0.85
Torreense
0.97
Academico Viseu
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Pacos Ferreira
1.41
Portimonense
1.44
Oliveirense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Leixoes
1.62
Lusitânia Lourosa is 0.56 goals worse than Torreense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 0.97).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
Maritimo
52%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Academico Viseu
49%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Oliveirense
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Pacos Ferreira
46%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Lusitânia Lourosa is 2.1 percentage points better than Torreense in terms of average possession (48% vs 46%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Lusitânia LourosaLusitânia Lourosa

For 5.6 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.8

🚩 Corners

1804339723612619106923857129918101015513H·PACA·UNIH·ACAA·VIZA·FARA·BENH·MARH·LEIH·OLIH·UNI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.8

🟨 Cards

10012343323431415454637627459510A·OLIH·PACA·PORH·FC A·UNIH·ACAA·VIZH·SPOA·FARH·FEI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 16.1 · Total 30.5

⚠️ Fouls

370141515141414131411161522191819181317111329292827273737373024H·PACA·UNIH·ACAA·VIZA·FARA·BENH·MARH·LEIH·OLIH·UNI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

TorreenseTorreense

For 5.4 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.4

🚩 Corners

180424751810692696116181589H·MARA·FELH·FC A·PACA·PENA·MARA·LEI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4

🟨 Cards

602242422323142413214665514643H·PENA·FEIH·MARA·CHAH·LEIA·FELH·PORA·OLIH·FC H·BEN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.6

⚠️ Fouls

340101291012116171717171210522192323342915H·MARA·FELH·FC A·PACA·PENA·MARA·LEI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Lusitânia LourosaLusitânia Lourosa

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (34)10.49.411.55.85.66.030.131.628.3
vs Stronger (7)10.0-10.08.17.09.037.0-37.0
vs Similar (25)10.910.211.85.45.65.229.531.826.6
vs Weaker (2)5.05.0-2.52.03.030.030.0-
% over line54%43%67%85%82%88%100%100%100%
% under line46%57%33%15%18%12%0%0%0%
This opponent (Torreense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TorreenseTorreense

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.08.311.74.85.24.417.118.516.0
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (18)8.38.38.05.15.05.219.723.512.0
vs Weaker (32)12.4-12.44.65.33.914.63.517.7
% over line42%33%50%70%79%62%44%50%40%
% under line58%67%50%30%21%38%56%50%60%
This opponent (Lusitânia Lourosa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.7
Portimonense
11.2
Farense
10.7
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.2
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Academico Viseu
10.1
Torreense
10.0
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.9
Oliveirense
9.7
Pacos Ferreira
9.4
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Benfica B
9.3
Feirense
9.0
Leixoes
8.9
Chaves
8.9
Maritimo
8.3
Sporting CP B
8.3

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Feirense
6.7
Benfica B
6.5
Vizela
6.3
Pacos Ferreira
6.2
Chaves
6.1
Felgueiras 1932
6.0
Sporting CP B
6.0
Maritimo
6.0
Leixoes
5.9
FC Porto B
5.9
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.8
Farense
5.8
Academico Viseu
5.8
União de Leiria
5.7
Portimonense
5.5
Oliveirense
5.5
Torreense
5.4
Penafiel
5.4
CF Os Belenenses
4.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Farense
30.5
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Sporting CP B
25.0
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Pacos Ferreira
24.7
Leixoes
24.5
Academico Viseu
22.2
Oliveirense
21.3
União de Leiria
21.1
Maritimo
20.2
Penafiel
20.2
Vizela
19.8
Felgueiras 1932
19.6
Benfica B
19.0
Portimonense
18.5
Feirense
18.1
FC Porto B
18.0
Chaves
18.0
Torreense
17.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.9%
Under 9.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
81.0%
Under 3.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.5%
Under 21.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 21.5 fouls85.5%--------
Under 3.582.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards81.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SCB (39)
€76m
BB (38)
€76m
FPB (36)
€57m
TOR (32)
€20m
AV (35)
€18m
MAR (26)
€15m
VIZ (31)
€12m
UDL (30)
€12m
FAR (32)
€11m
FEI (33)
€11m
POR (31)
€10m
CHA (29)
€9m
LEI (32)
€8m
F1 (28)
€8m
PEN (29)
€7m
OLI (30)
€7m
LL (27)
€6m
PF (24)
€6m
Lusitânia Lourosa's squad is €14m less valuable than Torreense's (€6m vs €20m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SCB (14)
€37m
FPB (14)
€19m
BB (13)
€15m
AV (15)
€8m
TOR (13)
€6m
MAR (10)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
POR (9)
€5m
FEI (12)
€4m
CHA (10)
€4m
UDL (7)
€3m
FAR (13)
€3m
OLI (11)
€3m
PF (10)
€3m
LEI (12)
€3m
F1 (9)
€2m
PEN (9)
€2m
LL (10)
€2m
Lusitânia Lourosa's attack is €5m less valuable than Torreense's (€2m vs €6m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SCB (9)
€18m
FPB (7)
€10m
BB (8)
€8m
TOR (6)
€5m
UDL (9)
€3m
FEI (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
AV (6)
€2m
POR (8)
€2m
CHA (8)
€2m
FAR (5)
€2m
PEN (7)
€2m
LEI (6)
€2m
F1 (5)
€2m
VIZ (3)
€2m
LL (5)
€1m
OLI (6)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Lusitânia Lourosa's midfield is €3m less valuable than Torreense's (€1m vs €5m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (17)
€53m
FPB (15)
€27m
SCB (16)
€21m
TOR (13)
€9m
AV (14)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
FAR (14)
€6m
UDL (14)
€6m
VIZ (15)
€5m
FEI (14)
€4m
POR (14)
€4m
CHA (11)
€4m
F1 (14)
€4m
LEI (14)
€3m
PEN (13)
€3m
OLI (13)
€3m
LL (12)
€3m
PF (12)
€2m
Lusitânia Lourosa's defence is €6m less valuable than Torreense's (€3m vs €9m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Torreense · H/A from LL
DateH/AGameScore
30/12/25ATorreense Vs LL0-1

Lusitânia LourosaLusitânia Lourosa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26AOliveirense Vs LL0-0
26/04/26HLL Vs Pacos Ferreira2-0
19/04/26APortimonense Vs LL3-2
13/04/26HLL Vs FC Porto B1-1
05/04/26AUnião de Leiria Vs LL0-0
21/03/26HLL Vs Academico Viseu0-3
15/03/26AVizela Vs LL4-3
08/03/26HLL Vs Sporting CP B1-0
01/03/26AFarense Vs LL2-1
22/02/26HLL Vs Feirense1-0

TorreenseTorreense

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/05/26HTOR Vs Penafiel3-2
28/04/26AFeirense Vs TOR0-0
18/04/26HTOR Vs Maritimo1-0
11/04/26AChaves Vs TOR2-0
06/04/26HTOR Vs Leixoes1-1
22/03/26AFelgueiras 1932 Vs TOR0-3
16/03/26HTOR Vs Portimonense1-0
07/03/26AOliveirense Vs TOR0-3
28/02/26HTOR Vs FC Porto B0-3
21/02/26HTOR Vs Benfica B1-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
Portugal: Segunda Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWD1.35
HomeWWLDW1.47
AwayLLDLD1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%35%35%
AVG goals2.762.353.18
Over 1.5 %74%71%76%
Over 2.5 %56%41%71%
Over 3.5 %32%24%41%
Scored1.261.121.41
Conceded1.501.241.76
BTTS56%53%59%
Clean Sheet26%29%24%
Corners10.389.4311.50
Cards5.825.656.00
Torreense
Torreense
Portugal: Segunda Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDW1.58
HomeLWDWW1.58
AwayDWWLD1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%46%42%
AVG goals2.562.922.23
Over 1.5 %68%75%62%
Over 2.5 %48%54%42%
Over 3.5 %26%33%19%
Scored1.381.501.27
Conceded1.181.420.96
BTTS48%58%38%
Clean Sheet30%25%35%
Corners10.008.3311.67
Cards5.435.685.18

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1MaritimoMaritimo3466
59%
1.9
5029+21
2.3
65%
38%
24%
7.7
20%
6.4
91%
30.1
93%
15
6271.50.9
52%
2Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu3459
50%
1.7
5833+25
2.7
68%
56%
35%
9.8
54%
6.1
91%
29.1
100%
18
8281.71.0
49%
3TorreenseTorreense3459
53%
1.7
4633+13
2.3
59%
44%
21%
10.2
38%
5.4
82%
23.1
62%
20
6591.41.0
46%
4FC Porto BFC Porto B3451
44%
1.5
4142-1
2.4
68%
50%
21%
9.6
55%
6.3
82%
29.4
100%
57
1910271.21.2
47%
5VizelaVizela3451
41%
1.5
3940-1
2.3
65%
41%
21%
9.1
33%
6.6
88%
29.9
78%
12
5251.11.2
54%
6União de LeiriaUnião de Leiria3450
38%
1.5
5246+6
2.9
74%
59%
44%
10.2
69%
5.9
82%
30.6
100%
12
3361.51.4
51%
7LeixoesLeixoes3450
44%
1.5
4655-9
3.0
82%
59%
35%
8.7
27%
6.1
91%
30.1
91%
8
3231.41.6
50%
8FeirenseFeirense3446
35%
1.4
3740-3
2.3
62%
44%
18%
9.3
29%
7.0
94%
29.1
86%
11
4241.11.2
42%
9ChavesChaves3445
38%
1.3
4240+2
2.4
65%
35%
24%
8.3
38%
6.3
82%
27.9
85%
9
4241.21.2
55%
10Benfica BBenfica B3444
32%
1.3
4344-1
2.6
79%
44%
15%
9.6
50%
6.9
91%
31.8
92%
76
158531.31.3
54%
11Felgueiras 1932Felgueiras 19323444
32%
1.3
3438-4
2.1
62%
32%
18%
10.2
56%
5.9
79%
29.4
89%
8
2241.01.1
54%
12FarenseFarense3644
31%
1.2
3237-5
1.9
61%
31%
8%
9.7
44%
5.9
86%
31.0
100%
11
3260.91.0
49%
13Lusitânia LourosaLusitânia Lourosa3443
32%
1.3
4452-8
2.8
76%
59%
32%
10.4
54%
5.9
85%
30.1
100%
6
2131.31.5
48%
14Sporting CP BSporting CP B3442
38%
1.2
4134+7
2.2
53%
44%
18%
8.3
40%
6.0
70%
25.0
80%
76
3718211.21.0
54%
15PenafielPenafiel3441
32%
1.2
3739-2
2.2
65%
38%
15%
11.2
80%
5.6
71%
27.1
70%
7
2231.11.1
49%
16PortimonensePortimonense3440
32%
1.2
3949-10
2.6
68%
41%
24%
10.6
78%
5.7
88%
32.9
100%
10
5241.11.4
48%
17Pacos FerreiraPacos Ferreira3439
26%
1.1
3448-14
2.4
68%
50%
24%
9.5
46%
6.3
82%
29.5
85%
6
3021.01.4
46%
18OliveirenseOliveirense3434
24%
1.0
3449-15
2.4
65%
44%
24%
9.2
55%
5.2
61%
29.3
91%
7
3131.01.4
49%
19CF Os BelenensesCF Os Belenenses21
0%
0.5
01-1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
4.0
100%
-
0%
0
0000.00.5
-
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →

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