Lusitânia Lourosa hosts Torreense in the Portugal: Segunda Liga, with the model predicting an away win. This match is expected to be a closely contested low-scoring affair, with an average of 2.3 goals expected. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring 14.2% of the time.
Lusitânia Lourosa has a poor home record, scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding 1.2 goals per match against stronger opponents. Torreense, on the other hand, has a decent away record, scoring 1 goal and conceding 0.64 goals per match against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is an away win, with a 45% probability. The home win percentage is 25%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 45%. The model also suggests taking Over 21.5 fouls (83.2%), Under 3.5 (80.2%), and Over 3.5 cards (79.4%).
Results analysis
The draw surprised everyone, as the pre-match favourite, Away win, failed to materialise. The final score was 2-2, leaving the actual result a stalemate. The model had given the away side a 45 % chance of triumph, but the outcome was a draw, so the model’s pick was wrong. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit with 99.8 %, Under 6.5 hit at 99.1 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.5 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 98.4 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.4 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.2 %, Under 5.5 hit at 97.1 %, and Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.0 %. The match ended in a 2-2 draw, defying the model’s expectation.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lusitânia Lourosa win✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied 29.9% · @ 3.06
Edge
-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.21
Dafabet
3.20
1xBet
3.16
Marathonbet
3.15
Superbet
3.15
Draw✓ Hit
30.3%
Avg Implied 29.4% · @ 3.11
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Betano
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.20
Torreense win✗ Miss
44.8%
Avg Implied 40.7% · @ 2.25
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.36
Unibet
2.30
Dafabet
2.30
1xBet
2.27
Superbet
2.27
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lusitânia Lourosa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.47
1.13
1.27
1.47
1.67
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
1.17
1.33
0.33
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.29
1.54
1.08
1.50
1.50
1.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Torreense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torreense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.93
1.67
1.00
1.07
0.87
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.45
0.80
1.55
0.64
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
1.22
2.00
2.00
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Lusitânia Lourosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.9%
@ 1.33-2.0%
Under 1.5
32.1%
@ 3.08+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.26
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.10
888Sport
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.0%
@ 2.05-5.5%
Under 2.5
60.0%
@ 1.72+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Unibet
2.08
Betano
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.75
888Sport
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.8%
@ 3.60-6.0%
Under 3.5
80.2%
@ 1.25+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.72
BetVictor
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Under
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.4%
@ 1.80-4.9%
No
53.6%
@ 1.89+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.80
William Hil
1.80
888Sport
1.80
No
BetVictor
1.93
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
William Hil
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 5.78+6.5%
0-1
12.4%@ 6.76+5.8%
0-0
11.5%@ 8.14+6.0%
0-2
9.2%@ 10.04+4.8%
1-2
8.7%@ 8.42+3.4%
1-0
8.3%@ 8.25+2.9%
2-1
6.1%@ 10.09+1.7%
2-0
4.5%@ 14.29+1.4%
Lusitânia Lourosa goals ↓
Torreense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
12%
9.2%
4.1%
1.4%
1
8.3%
14%
8.7%
3.9%
1.3%
2
4.5%
6.1%
4.1%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.4%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lusitânia Lourosa goals (down), columns = Torreense goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Torreense
1.74
AVS
1.50
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Tondela
1.36
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Academica
0.98
Amarante
0.82
Lusitânia Lourosa is 0.47 points worse than Torreense in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
União de Leiria
1.53
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
AVS
1.30
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Tondela
1.17
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Farense
0.89
Academica
0.85
Amarante
0.71
Lusitânia Lourosa is 0.06 goals worse than Torreense in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torreense
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
AVS
1.05
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Tondela
1.16
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Portimonense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Academica
1.61
Leixoes
1.62
Amarante
1.92
Lusitânia Lourosa is 0.56 goals worse than Torreense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Lusitânia Lourosa is 2.1 percentage points better than Torreense in terms of average possession (48% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lusitânia Lourosa
For 5.6 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 16.1 · Total 30.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Torreense
For 5.1 · Against 7.0 · Total 12.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 14.0 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lusitânia Lourosa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (44)
10.4
9.4
11.5
5.0
4.7
5.2
30.1
31.6
28.3
vs Stronger (7)
10.0
-
10.0
8.4
7.2
10.0
37.0
-
37.0
vs Similar (36)
10.4
9.4
11.8
4.4
4.2
4.6
29.5
31.6
26.6
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
54%
43%
67%
73%
70%
76%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
46%
57%
33%
27%
30%
24%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Torreense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torreense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
8.0
13.4
4.3
4.2
4.3
24.1
22.6
25.5
vs Stronger (1)
22.0
-
22.0
7.0
-
7.0
33.0
-
33.0
vs Similar (31)
9.1
8.0
11.3
4.5
4.7
4.3
24.8
25.5
23.3
vs Weaker (18)
12.8
-
12.8
3.8
3.6
4.1
21.2
5.0
25.2
% over line
43%
17%
62%
64%
67%
62%
73%
71%
75%
% under line
57%
83%
38%
36%
33%
38%
27%
29%
25%
This opponent (Lusitânia Lourosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.5
Portimonense
11.2
Torreense
11.0
Farense
10.8
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.3
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.8
Benfica B
9.6
Tondela
9.6
AVS
9.5
Feirense
9.0
Leixoes
8.9
Chaves
8.8
Sporting CP B
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
6.7
Feirense
6.6
Vizela
6.3
Leixoes
6.0
FC Porto B
6.0
Chaves
5.9
Sporting CP B
5.9
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.9
Felgueiras 1932
5.8
União de Leiria
5.6
Farense
5.6
Portimonense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
Tondela
5.2
Torreense
5.2
AVS
5.1
Academica
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Farense
31.3
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Leixoes
26.4
AVS
25.7
Tondela
25.1
Sporting CP B
25.0
Felgueiras 1932
23.5
União de Leiria
23.1
FC Porto B
21.9
Penafiel
21.8
Benfica B
21.2
Torreense
21.1
Chaves
20.9
Portimonense
20.8
Vizela
20.8
Feirense
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.0%
@ 1.85+8.0%
Under 9.5
42.0%
@ 1.85-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathonbet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
80.0%
Under 3.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
84.0%
Under 21.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lusitânia Lourosa or Draw✓ Hit
55.2%
Avg Implied 58.8% · @ 1.58
Edge
-3.5%
25%
30%
45%
covers Lusitânia Lourosa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.67
888Sport
1.62
10Bet
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.59
Lusitânia Lourosa or Torreense✗ Miss
69.7%
Avg Implied 71.3% · @ 1.30
Edge
-1.6%
25%
30%
45%
covers Lusitânia Lourosa + Torreense
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Draw or Torreense✓ Hit
75.1%
Avg Implied 70.0% · @ 1.33
Edge
+5.1%
25%
30%
45%
covers Draw + Torreense
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.0%
@ 1.39-5.9%
Under
39.0%
@ 2.79+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Under
Pinnacle
2.98
888Sport
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Betano
2.77
Superbet
2.77
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
24.3%
@ 2.89-7.9%
Under
75.7%
@ 1.37+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.01
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.94
10Bet
2.90
BetVictor
2.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 7.22-5.9%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.07+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.50
888Sport
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 18.38-3.7%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Torreense over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.9%
@ 1.26+0.5%
Under
26.1%
@ 3.50-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Under
Pinnacle
3.69
BetVictor
3.60
888Sport
3.50
1xBet
3.48
Marathonbet
3.48
Torreense over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
38.9%
@ 2.31-1.3%
Under
61.1%
@ 1.55+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.31
Unibet
2.30
888Sport
2.30
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Torreense over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.3%
@ 5.21-2.5%
Under
84.7%
@ 1.13+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.50
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Torreense over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 13.31-2.4%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.03+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
888Sport
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lusitânia Lourosa, so a minus line means Lusitânia Lourosa give that many goals of a start and Torreense receive them. At -1, Lusitânia Lourosa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lusitânia Lourosa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Torreense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torreense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.43
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.27
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.40
0.55
0.36
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.56
1.00
1.25
0.40
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Lusitânia Lourosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.9%
@ 1.43+2.0%
Under 0.5
33.1%
@ 2.64-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.77
William Hil
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.67
10Bet
2.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.3%
@ 2.96-1.1%
Under 1.5
69.7%
@ 1.35+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.12
Betano
3.05
Betfair
3.00
1xBet
2.98
Marathonbet
2.98
Under
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.1%
@ 7.49-2.2%
Under 2.5
89.9%
@ 1.05+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Under
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
BetVictor
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.5%
@ 2.35+3.0%
Under
57.5%
@ 1.53-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.41
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Superbet
2.32
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.53
1xBet
1.51
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.2%
@ 8.18-2.1%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.05+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.90
Marathonbet
8.90
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.80
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 30.00-98.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Torreense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.1%
@ 2.04-4.4%
Under
58.9%
@ 1.71+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.03
Superbet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Superbet
1.72
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Torreense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 6.26-3.8%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.09+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.70
1xBet
6.70
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
6.00
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Torreense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 17.67-3.8%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lusitânia Lourosa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.90
0.73
0.80
0.87
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.83
0.67
0.33
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.92
0.75
0.92
0.75
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Torreense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torreense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.27
1.00
0.56
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.67
1.00
0.75
0.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Lusitânia Lourosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.2%
Under 0.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.8%
Under 1.5
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
14.5%
Under 2.5
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.5%
Under
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lusitânia Lourosa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torreense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.5%
Under
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torreense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torreense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
93.0%
1.07
Betano
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.8%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
-
-
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.8%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.9%
1.05
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
BetVictor
1.05
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
84.7%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.2%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+6.0%
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.3%
1.17
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
-
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
75.7%
1.37
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
+7.9%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
75.1%
1.33
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
75.1%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Unibet
1.27
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.9%
1.26
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
70.1%
1.50
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.47
-
+8.7%
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lusitânia Lourosa · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
João Silva27%
João Vasco25%
Tiago Dias23%
Arsénio Nunes20%
Fabinho18%
Miguel Pereira17%
Luís Rocha0%
Higor Platiny0%
Ibrahim Alhassan Abdullahi0%
Tiago Mesquita0%
Rodrigo Martins0%
Silvério Junio0%
Josué Sá0%
Daniel0%
Tiago Cerveira0%
Dylan Collard0%
Alan Do Marcolino0%
Jose Campelo Doria0%
Vitor Hugo0%
Gonçalo Braga0%
Bruno Faria0%
Aly Palacios0%
Miguel Teixeira0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel43%
Bruno Faria43%
Jose Campelo Doria36%
Rodrigo Martins33%
Silvério Junio27%
Tiago Dias23%
Arsénio Nunes20%
Luís Rocha18%
Tiago Cerveira18%
Vitor Hugo15%
Dylan Collard14%
João Silva9%
João Vasco8%
Miguel Pereira8%
Miguel Teixeira8%
Higor Platiny0%
Ibrahim Alhassan Abdullahi0%
Tiago Mesquita0%
Fabinho0%
Josué Sá0%
Alan Do Marcolino0%
Gonçalo Braga0%
Aly Palacios0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Arsénio Nunes20%
Rodrigo Martins17%
Miguel Pereira17%
Tiago Dias15%
Fabinho9%
Tiago Cerveira9%
Luís Rocha0%
Higor Platiny0%
Ibrahim Alhassan Abdullahi0%
Tiago Mesquita0%
João Silva0%
Silvério Junio0%
Josué Sá0%
Daniel0%
João Vasco0%
Dylan Collard0%
Alan Do Marcolino0%
Jose Campelo Doria0%
Vitor Hugo0%
Gonçalo Braga0%
Bruno Faria0%
Aly Palacios0%
Miguel Teixeira0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
João Silva27%
Miguel Pereira17%
Tiago Dias8%
Luís Rocha0%
Arsénio Nunes0%
Higor Platiny0%
Ibrahim Alhassan Abdullahi0%
Tiago Mesquita0%
Fabinho0%
Rodrigo Martins0%
Silvério Junio0%
Josué Sá0%
Daniel0%
João Vasco0%
Tiago Cerveira0%
Dylan Collard0%
Alan Do Marcolino0%
Jose Campelo Doria0%
Vitor Hugo0%
Gonçalo Braga0%
Bruno Faria0%
Aly Palacios0%
Miguel Teixeira0%
Torreense · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kévin Zohi38%
Dany Jean20%
Stopira11%
Musa Drammeh10%
Javi Vázquez9%
Lucas Paes0%
Costinha0%
Pité0%
David Bruno0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Manuel Pozo Guerrero0%
Arnau Casas0%
Alejandro Alfaro0%
Luis Quintero0%
Andre Simões0%
Ismaïl Seydi0%
Mohamed Ali Diadié0%
Leo Azevedo0%
Arielson0%
Danilo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Guilherme Liberato33%
Alejandro Alfaro29%
Arnau Casas25%
Andre Simões25%
Manuel Pozo Guerrero20%
Musa Drammeh20%
Ismaïl Seydi20%
Leo Azevedo20%
Javi Vázquez18%
Pité17%
Stopira11%
Dany Jean10%
David Bruno9%
Lucas Paes0%
Kévin Zohi0%
Costinha0%
Luis Quintero0%
Mohamed Ali Diadié0%
Arielson0%
Danilo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Manuel Pozo Guerrero20%
Alejandro Alfaro14%
Dany Jean10%
Musa Drammeh10%
Ismaïl Seydi10%
Leo Azevedo10%
Javi Vázquez9%
Stopira0%
Lucas Paes0%
Kévin Zohi0%
Costinha0%
Pité0%
David Bruno0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Arnau Casas0%
Luis Quintero0%
Andre Simões0%
Mohamed Ali Diadié0%
Arielson0%
Danilo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kévin Zohi25%
Musa Drammeh20%
Alejandro Alfaro14%
Dany Jean10%
Javi Vázquez0%
Stopira0%
Lucas Paes0%
Costinha0%
Pité0%
David Bruno0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Manuel Pozo Guerrero0%
Arnau Casas0%
Luis Quintero0%
Andre Simões0%
Ismaïl Seydi0%
Mohamed Ali Diadié0%
Leo Azevedo0%
Arielson0%
Danilo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
SCB (23)
€17m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
AMA (6)
€1m
Lusitânia Lourosa's squad is €14m less valuable than Torreense's (€5m vs €19m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
TOR (12)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
SCB (9)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
Lusitânia Lourosa's attack is €6m less valuable than Torreense's (€1m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SCB (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
Lusitânia Lourosa's midfield is €1m less valuable than Torreense's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
SCB (9)
€7m
TON (9)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
ACA (4)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Lusitânia Lourosa's defence is €6m less valuable than Torreense's (€3m vs €10m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Academica
Sporting CP B
Penafiel
Farense
Vizela
Benfica B
Portimonense
União de Leiria
Felgueiras 1932
Leixoes
AVS
Amarante
Tondela
FC Porto B
Feirense
Chaves