Luton are tipped to win the encounter, with a 44% chance of triumph, a 26% chance of a draw and a 30% chance of Leyton Orient taking the victory. The match is expected to see three goals on average, but the most likely total is two, with a 23% probability of that outcome. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.1% chance. Luton, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, average 2.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded; Leyton Orient, on the road against a comparable side, average 1.0 goal scored and 1.07 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.2% with a 3% edge), Under 6.5 (96.6% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.1% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (93.3% with a 7% edge) and Under 5.5 (91.4% with a 3% edge).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Luton win
45.8%
Avg Implied 56.3% · @ 1.66
Edge
-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.69
1xBet
1.68
William Hil
1.67
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Draw
26.2%
Avg Implied 23.5% · @ 3.96
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
4.10
Dafabet
4.10
Pinnacle
4.07
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Leyton Orient win
28.0%
Avg Implied 20.2% · @ 4.62
Edge
+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.00
Dafabet
4.70
10Bet
4.65
Pinnacle
4.64
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Luton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.33
1.93
1.14
1.50
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
1.46
1.15
1.86
0.86
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (16)
2.00
1.44
2.00
1.43
2.00
1.44
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leyton Orient
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.37
1.20
1.60
1.20
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.11
1.29
1.21
1.50
1.00
1.07
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
2.50
1.00
3.00
4.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Luton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.4%
@ 1.17+1.0%
Under 1.5
19.6%
@ 4.52-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Under
BetVictor
5.00
Pinnacle
4.64
Unibet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.6%
@ 1.60-2.1%
Under 2.5
43.4%
@ 2.27+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.34
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Marathonbet
2.29
1xBet
2.29
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.2%
@ 2.46-3.7%
Under 3.5
65.8%
@ 1.50+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.50
Betano
2.47
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.52
BetVictor
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Both teams to score
Yes
59.7%
@ 1.60+1.8%
No
40.3%
@ 2.20-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Unibet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
No
Betfair
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Bet365
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%@ 7.33+6.2%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.49+3.4%
1-0
7.7%@ 8.08+2.1%
2-0
7.4%@ 8.65+2.2%
1-2
7.1%@ 13.47+3.8%
0-0
6.3%@ 13.34+3.0%
2-2
6.0%@ 12.35+2.3%
0-1
5.5%@ 14.02+2.3%
Luton goals ↓
Leyton Orient goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
5.5%
4.2%
1.8%
0.6%
1
7.7%
12%
7.1%
3.0%
1.0%
2
7.4%
9.4%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.1%
5.2%
3.3%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.7%
2.2%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Luton goals (down), columns = Leyton Orient goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Luton is 0.48 points better than Leyton Orient in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Luton is 0.20 goals better than Leyton Orient in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Luton is 0.33 goals better than Leyton Orient in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.54).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Luton is 3.4 percentage points better than Leyton Orient in terms of average possession (56% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Luton
For 5.8 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 14.0 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leyton Orient
For 5.1 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 13.2 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Luton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.5
9.4
3.7
3.6
3.8
24.0
24.1
23.9
vs Stronger (1)
12.0
-
12.0
1.0
-
1.0
17.0
-
17.0
vs Similar (23)
11.1
13.0
9.0
4.1
3.6
4.7
24.5
23.9
25.1
vs Weaker (26)
9.7
9.9
9.5
3.4
3.6
3.2
23.8
24.2
23.4
% over line
59%
67%
52%
50%
42%
58%
63%
62%
64%
% under line
41%
33%
48%
50%
58%
42%
37%
38%
36%
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leyton Orient
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.2
9.2
4.1
3.9
4.4
23.7
23.8
23.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
9.8
10.3
9.4
4.3
3.9
4.6
24.0
24.3
23.7
vs Weaker (3)
7.3
9.0
6.5
2.3
3.0
2.0
19.3
13.0
22.5
% over line
52%
58%
46%
64%
58%
69%
70%
71%
69%
% under line
48%
42%
54%
36%
42%
31%
30%
29%
31%
This opponent (Luton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.7
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.2
Leicester
11.0
Blackpool
10.6
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.4
Burton
10.4
Bradford
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Huddersfield
10.2
Bromley
10.2
AFC Wimbledon
10.1
Wycombe
10.1
Peterboro
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Stockport
9.8
Mansfield
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.7
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.2
Milton Keynes Dons
9.2
Cambridge
9.0
Stevenage
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.8
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Blackpool
3.9
Doncaster
3.8
Bromley
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Mansfield
3.8
Luton
3.7
Leicester
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Wycombe
3.6
Burton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Barnsley
3.6
Oxford
3.5
AFC Wimbledon
3.3
Stockport
3.3
Wigan
3.2
Sheffield Weds
3.1
Cambridge
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.8
Plymouth
24.5
Bradford
24.4
Huddersfield
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Luton
23.9
Leyton Orient
23.7
Wigan
23.3
AFC Wimbledon
23.2
Peterboro
23.2
Milton Keynes Dons
23.1
Blackpool
23.1
Doncaster
22.8
Reading
22.7
Burton
22.5
Oxford
22.4
Cambridge
22.4
Mansfield
22.3
Sheffield Weds
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Bromley
21.9
Wycombe
21.3
Stockport
20.8
Barnsley
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.8%
@ 1.66+0.9%
Under 9.5
43.2%
@ 2.11-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Unibet
1.53
Under
Betfair
2.40
Unibet
2.28
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.9%
Under 3.5
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
72.3%
Under 21.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Luton or Draw
72.0%
Avg Implied 79.4% · @ 1.17
Edge
-7.4%
46%
26%
28%
covers Luton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Luton or Leyton Orient
73.8%
Avg Implied 77.1% · @ 1.21
Edge
-3.3%
46%
26%
28%
covers Luton + Leyton Orient
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Draw or Leyton Orient
54.2%
Avg Implied 43.5% · @ 2.14
Edge
+10.8%
46%
26%
28%
covers Draw + Leyton Orient
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.30
Betano
2.22
10Bet
2.15
Bet365
2.15
Unibet
2.14
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Luton over/under 0.5
Over
81.3%
@ 1.10-3.1%
Under
18.7%
@ 5.96+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Under
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
10Bet
5.50
Luton over/under 1.5
Over
50.0%
@ 1.59-8.4%
Under
50.0%
@ 2.24+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.31
Betfair
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Unibet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
Luton over/under 2.5
Over
23.7%
@ 2.87-8.7%
Under
76.3%
@ 1.38+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.95
Marathonbet
2.88
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Under
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Luton over/under 3.5
Over
9.0%
@ 5.76-7.2%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.11+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Betano
5.40
Unibet
5.30
1xBet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Leyton Orient over/under 0.5
Over
72.0%
@ 1.41+6.2%
Under
28.0%
@ 2.71-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.93
BetVictor
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.72
10Bet
2.70
Leyton Orient over/under 1.5
Over
36.4%
@ 3.00+5.5%
Under
63.6%
@ 1.34-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.30
Unibet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.99
1xBet
2.99
Under
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Leyton Orient over/under 2.5
Over
13.7%
@ 7.47+1.2%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.06-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
Leyton Orient over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
@ 17.38-1.5%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.01+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Luton, so a minus line means Luton give that many goals of a start and Leyton Orient receive them. At -1, Luton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Luton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Luton)
Luton -2
10.5%
@ 5.08-7.1%
Draw -2
14.2%
@ 4.66-5.0%
Leyton Orient +2
75.3%
@ 1.42+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Unibet
4.70
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.35
Away
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Handicap -1 (Luton)
Luton -1
24.7%
@ 2.62-9.5%
Draw -1
21.0%
@ 3.63-3.7%
Leyton Orient +1
54.2%
@ 2.18+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.64
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.50
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Away
Betfair
2.30
Unibet
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
Bet365
2.10
Handicap +1 (Luton)
Luton +1
72.0%
@ 1.17-4.0%
Draw +1
15.7%
@ 5.97+0.8%
Leyton Orient -1
12.3%
@ 9.71+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
4.35
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
6.05
Handicap +2 (Luton)
Luton +2
87.7%
@ 1.03-2.6%
Draw +2
8.2%
@ 14.00+1.5%
Leyton Orient -2
4.1%
@ 31.00+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.02
Draw
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
13.00
Away
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Luton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
1.14
0.50
0.75
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.77
1.14
0.57
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.75
1.14
0.43
0.89
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leyton Orient
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.67
0.67
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.50
0.68
0.64
0.64
0.36
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Luton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.0%
@ 1.28+1.5%
Under 0.5
26.0%
@ 3.38-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
William Hil
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
1xBet
3.34
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.2%
@ 2.32-2.7%
Under 1.5
62.8%
@ 1.54+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Betfair
2.40
Pinnacle
2.36
1xBet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.33
Under
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.4%
@ 5.43-4.7%
Under 2.5
87.6%
@ 1.12+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
William Hil
5.50
1xBet
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Betfair
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Luton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.0%
@ 1.61-2.6%
Under
45.0%
@ 2.19+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Under
Pinnacle
2.29
Unibet
2.23
1xBet
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Betano
2.15
Luton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.0%
@ 3.96-7.2%
Under
84.0%
@ 1.20+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.05
Betano
3.95
10Bet
3.95
1xBet
3.90
Under
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Luton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.3%
@ 9.50-5.5%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Leyton Orient over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.6%
@ 2.39+1.7%
Under
59.4%
@ 1.52-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.46
Betano
2.42
10Bet
2.38
Unibet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.35
Under
10Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Leyton Orient over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.5%
@ 8.18-1.8%
Under
90.5%
@ 1.04+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
8.30
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Leyton Orient over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Luton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.79
0.64
0.75
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.38
0.71
0.29
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.69
0.86
1.00
1.11
0.44
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leyton Orient
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.53
0.93
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.61
0.57
0.86
0.64
0.36
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Luton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.9%
@ 1.16-5.4%
Under 0.5
25.1%
@ 4.72+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.75
Betano
4.70
William Hil
4.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.3%
@ 1.81-3.9%
Under 1.5
52.7%
@ 1.91+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.80
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Under
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Unibet
1.88
William Hil
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.0%
@ 3.50-6.6%
Under 2.5
80.0%
@ 1.27+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.70
Betano
3.35
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Under
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Luton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.8%
@ 1.41-8.1%
Under
42.2%
@ 2.72+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Under
Betano
2.77
10Bet
2.75
1xBet
2.65
Luton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.1%
@ 2.87-8.1%
Under
75.9%
@ 1.36+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.90
10Bet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
Betano
2.82
Under
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Luton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.2%
@ 7.00-6.9%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.06+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.60
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Leyton Orient over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.1%
@ 1.97-1.0%
Under
53.9%
@ 1.75+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Under
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Leyton Orient over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.5%
@ 5.89-1.2%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.10+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.10
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Leyton Orient over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.7%
@ 16.25-3.1%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
Under 6.5
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+2.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+1.5%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
-
-
-
+5.5%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.8%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+6.9%
Under 5.5
92.1%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
+3.6%
Home under 3.5 goals
91.0%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
+7.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.5%
1.04
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
+1.8%
Home +2 handicap
87.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
-2.6%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Betfair
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
+4.7%
Away under 2.5 goals
86.3%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
-1.2%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.5%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
-
+1.2%
Over 19.5 fouls
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.0%
1.20
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
-
+7.2%
Under 4.5
82.4%
1.19
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
+3.8%
Home over 0.5 goals
81.3%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
1xBet
1.08
-3.1%
Over 1.5
80.4%
1.17
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
Bet365
1.18
+1.0%
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.27
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+6.6%
Under 5.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.3%
1.38
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
+8.7%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.9%
1.36
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
-
+8.1%
Away +2 handicap
75.3%
1.42
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
+12.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.9%
1.16
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
-5.4%
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.0%
1.28
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
+1.5%
Home or Away
73.8%
1.21
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-3.3%
Over 21.5 fouls
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.0%
1.41
Betfair
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
+6.2%
Home or Draw
72.0%
1.17
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-7.4%
Home +1 handicap
72.0%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
-4.0%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Luton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
N. Wells80%
C. Marshall50%
G. Kodua20%
Benedict Benagr20%
K. Palmer0%
L. Walsh0%
K. Naismith0%
H. Odoffin0%
G. Johnston0%
H. Ashby0%
Isaiah Jones0%
Joshua Keeley0%
Emilio Lawrence0%
J. Richards0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Naismith33%
K. Palmer20%
L. Walsh20%
N. Wells20%
G. Johnston20%
Isaiah Jones20%
G. Kodua20%
H. Odoffin0%
H. Ashby0%
Joshua Keeley0%
Emilio Lawrence0%
C. Marshall0%
J. Richards0%
Benedict Benagr0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Palmer20%
L. Walsh0%
K. Naismith0%
N. Wells0%
H. Odoffin0%
G. Johnston0%
H. Ashby0%
Isaiah Jones0%
Joshua Keeley0%
Emilio Lawrence0%
G. Kodua0%
C. Marshall0%
J. Richards0%
Benedict Benagr0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
N. Wells40%
Benedict Benagr20%
K. Palmer0%
L. Walsh0%
K. Naismith0%
H. Odoffin0%
G. Johnston0%
H. Ashby0%
Isaiah Jones0%
Joshua Keeley0%
Emilio Lawrence0%
G. Kodua0%
C. Marshall0%
J. Richards0%
Leyton Orient
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yusuf Akhamrich50%
Armando Dobra33%
T. Springett25%
N. Oyekunle25%
I. El Mizouni20%
D. Mitchell20%
J. Kabia20%
Isaac Hayden0%
Theo Archibald0%
Joseph Olowu0%
James Morris0%
F. Stevens0%
Charlie Wellens0%
Noah Phillips0%
Z. Obiero0%
Phillip Chinedu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Isaac Hayden60%
F. Stevens60%
T. Springett25%
Theo Archibald20%
I. El Mizouni20%
J. Kabia20%
Phillip Chinedu20%
D. Mitchell0%
Armando Dobra0%
Joseph Olowu0%
James Morris0%
Charlie Wellens0%
Noah Phillips0%
Z. Obiero0%
Yusuf Akhamrich0%
N. Oyekunle0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
T. Springett50%
Charlie Wellens25%
Yusuf Akhamrich25%
D. Mitchell20%
J. Kabia20%
Isaac Hayden0%
Theo Archibald0%
I. El Mizouni0%
Armando Dobra0%
Joseph Olowu0%
James Morris0%
F. Stevens0%
Noah Phillips0%
Z. Obiero0%
Phillip Chinedu0%
N. Oyekunle0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Charlie Wellens25%
Yusuf Akhamrich25%
Isaac Hayden20%
D. Mitchell20%
J. Kabia20%
Theo Archibald0%
I. El Mizouni0%
Armando Dobra0%
Joseph Olowu0%
James Morris0%
F. Stevens0%
T. Springett0%
Noah Phillips0%
Z. Obiero0%
Phillip Chinedu0%
N. Oyekunle0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Luton's squad is €19m more valuable than Leyton Orient's (€29m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Luton's attack is €9m more valuable than Leyton Orient's (€13m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Luton's midfield is €1m more valuable than Leyton Orient's (€4m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Luton's defence is €9m more valuable than Leyton Orient's (€12m vs €3m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Stockport
Notts County
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