This opponent (Monaco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
0.93
2.00
0.93
2.13
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
1.10
1.30
1.29
1.43
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
2.58
0.79
2.62
0.50
2.55
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.2%
Under 1.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.4%
@ 1.65+4.5%
Under 2.5
37.6%
@ 2.27-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.2%
Under 3.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.0%
No
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
6.7%
0-1
5.6%
0-2
5.6%
1-0
5.2%
0-0
5.0%
Lyon goals ↓
Monaco goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
5.6%
5.6%
3.1%
1.3%
1
5.2%
11%
8.6%
4.8%
2.0%
2
4.8%
8.0%
6.7%
3.7%
1.5%
3
2.5%
4.2%
3.5%
1.9%
0.8%
4
1.0%
1.6%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lyon goals (down), columns = Monaco goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.26
Marseille
1.87
Monaco
1.82
Nice
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.66
Lens
1.63
Lyon
1.63
Lille
1.45
Nantes
1.45
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Reims
1.21
Montpellier
1.13
Angers
1.08
Estac Troyes
1.00
Clermont Foot
0.95
Lorient
0.95
Saint Etienne
0.84
Bordeaux
0.82
Metz
0.82
Lyon is 0.18 points worse than Monaco in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 1.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.37
Rennes
2.16
Lyon
1.74
Monaco
1.71
Marseille
1.66
Lens
1.63
Strasbourg
1.58
Nantes
1.45
Nice
1.37
Bordeaux
1.37
Stade Brestois 29
1.29
Montpellier
1.29
Lille
1.26
Angers
1.16
Reims
1.13
Saint Etienne
1.11
Clermont Foot
1.00
Estac Troyes
0.97
Metz
0.92
Lorient
0.92
Lyon is 0.03 goals better than Monaco in terms of goals scored per game (1.74 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nice
0.95
Paris Saint Germain
0.95
Marseille
1.00
Rennes
1.05
Monaco
1.05
Strasbourg
1.13
Reims
1.16
Lille
1.26
Nantes
1.26
Lens
1.26
Lyon
1.34
Estac Troyes
1.39
Angers
1.45
Stade Brestois 29
1.50
Montpellier
1.61
Lorient
1.66
Clermont Foot
1.82
Metz
1.82
Saint Etienne
2.03
Bordeaux
2.39
Lyon is 0.29 goals worse than Monaco in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.05).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lyon
For 5.8 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 10.3 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Monaco
For 5.6 · Against 2.9 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.2 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lyon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.3
9.8
4.2
4.0
4.5
24.6
23.4
25.9
vs Stronger (3)
9.7
5.0
12.0
4.0
2.0
5.0
29.7
29.0
30.0
vs Similar (16)
10.6
12.6
8.5
4.7
4.0
5.4
24.5
21.4
27.6
vs Weaker (31)
10.6
11.1
10.1
4.0
4.1
3.9
24.2
24.1
24.4
% over line
58%
68%
48%
66%
60%
72%
72%
60%
84%
% under line
42%
32%
52%
34%
40%
28%
28%
40%
16%
This opponent (Monaco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.9
8.6
4.6
4.5
4.7
26.0
26.6
25.4
vs Stronger (2)
4.0
3.0
5.0
5.5
6.0
5.0
26.5
31.0
22.0
vs Similar (18)
8.9
8.7
9.2
5.2
5.7
4.7
27.0
28.8
25.2
vs Weaker (30)
8.9
9.5
8.4
4.2
3.7
4.7
25.4
24.9
25.8
% over line
34%
36%
32%
72%
72%
72%
88%
88%
88%
% under line
66%
64%
68%
28%
28%
28%
12%
12%
12%
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Montpellier
10.6
Lyon
10.5
Bordeaux
10.1
Nice
10.0
Stade Brestois 29
10.0
Saint Etienne
10.0
Paris Saint Germain
9.8
Lens
9.7
Marseille
9.7
Metz
9.6
Nantes
9.5
Strasbourg
9.4
Angers
9.2
Clermont Foot
9.1
Rennes
9.1
Reims
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Lille
8.8
Estac Troyes
8.8
Monaco
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Marseille
4.9
Lens
4.8
Estac Troyes
4.6
Monaco
4.6
Metz
4.4
Lille
4.3
Saint Etienne
4.3
Montpellier
4.2
Lyon
4.2
Lorient
4.2
Nantes
4.2
Bordeaux
4.1
Rennes
4.1
Paris Saint Germain
4.1
Angers
3.9
Nice
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.9
Reims
3.9
Strasbourg
3.8
Clermont Foot
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
28.7
Saint Etienne
27.2
Nantes
26.5
Lens
26.5
Metz
26.4
Monaco
26.0
Marseille
25.7
Rennes
25.6
Montpellier
25.5
Lille
25.5
Lorient
25.3
Strasbourg
25.2
Bordeaux
25.1
Angers
24.8
Lyon
24.6
Stade Brestois 29
24.6
Clermont Foot
24.4
Nice
24.0
Reims
23.7
Paris Saint Germain
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.4%
Under 9.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.7%
Under 3.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
63.7%
Under 21.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lyon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
0.94
0.56
1.00
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.50
1.33
0.33
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (18)
1.11
0.44
0.78
0.56
1.44
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.33
0.53
0.33
0.87
0.33
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.20
0.57
0.29
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.79
0.42
0.50
0.38
1.00
0.45
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lyon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lyon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.90
1.19
0.94
0.93
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
1.20
1.00
1.00
1.17
1.50
0.75
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.72
1.22
0.67
0.67
0.78
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.60
1.47
0.60
1.27
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
1.10
0.71
1.14
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.79
0.37
2.12
0.12
1.55
0.55
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lyon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lyon · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Loïs Openda40%
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Ernest Nuamah20%
Tyler Morton17%
Malick Fofana17%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Loïs Openda20%
Abner Vinícius20%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Corentin Tolisso33%
Pavel Šulc33%
Zachary Athekame33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Clinton Mata0%
Loïs Openda0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Noah Nartey0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Loïs Openda40%
Corentin Tolisso33%
Malick Fofana33%
Kaïl Boudache20%
Tyler Morton17%
Clinton Mata0%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Noah Nartey0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Monaco · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paris Brunner75%
Mika Biereth50%
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mamadou Coulibaly33%
Eric Dier25%
Lamine Camara25%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Vanderson0%
Nazinho0%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Anis Soubeir0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mathys Detourbet33%
Lukáš Hrádecký25%
Denis Zakaria25%
Vanderson25%
Nazinho25%
Lamine Camara25%
Anis Soubeir25%
Eric Dier0%
Mika Biereth0%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo0%
Paris Brunner0%
Mamadou Coulibaly0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nazinho50%
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mamadou Coulibaly33%
Mathys Detourbet33%
Eric Dier25%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo25%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Mika Biereth0%
Vanderson0%
Lamine Camara0%
Paris Brunner0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Anis Soubeir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paris Brunner50%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo25%
Aleksandr Golovin0%
Eric Dier0%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Mika Biereth0%
Vanderson0%
Nazinho0%
Lamine Camara0%
Mamadou Coulibaly0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Anis Soubeir0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
NIC (28)
€152m
SE (30)
€93m
LOR (24)
€87m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
REI (30)
€72m
SB2 (20)
€64m
MET (26)
€43m
ET (23)
€36m
MON (24)
€29m
CF (21)
€15m
Lyon's squad is €32m less valuable than Monaco's (€293m vs €326m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
SE (10)
€54m
LEN (8)
€52m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
LOR (8)
€20m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
ET (7)
€7m
CF (5)
€2m
Lyon's attack is €27m less valuable than Monaco's (€122m vs €148m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
REN (5)
€44m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
LEN (5)
€24m
SB2 (6)
€20m
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
CF (4)
€3m
Lyon's midfield is €2m less valuable than Monaco's (€82m vs €84m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
NIC (11)
€60m
LOR (11)
€35m
NAN (10)
€34m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
Lyon's defence is €4m less valuable than Monaco's (€89m vs €93m).
France: Ligue 1 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Paris Saint Germain
Marseille
Nice
Rennes
Strasbourg
Lens
Nantes
Lille
Stade Brestois 29
Reims
Montpellier
Angers
Estac Troyes
Lorient
Clermont Foot
Saint Etienne
Metz
Bordeaux