The model favours an away win, with a 56 % chance of Maccabi Bnei Raina triumphing. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, so a modest 2-goal match is likely, and the single most probable scoreline is 0-1 for the visitors, a 14.9 % probability. Maccabi Ahi Nazareth, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded, while Bnei Raina, on the road, scores 1.18 and concedes 1.18. The home win probability is 16 %, the draw 28 %, and the away win 56 %. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (99.4 %), Under 6.5 (99.1 %), Under 5.5 (97.2 %), Home under 2.5 goals (96.3 %), Away +2 handicap (95.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (92.9 %), and Under 4.5 (92.1 %).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win
16.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina win
55.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.57
1.29
1.79
0.81
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.03
1.57
1.29
1.79
0.81
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Bnei Raina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Bnei Raina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.83
0.60
2.07
1.00
1.60
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
2.62
0.00
2.67
0.40
2.60
vs Similar (22)
1.00
1.55
0.75
1.92
1.30
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Ahi Nazareth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.0%
Under 1.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.2%
Under 2.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.1%
Under 3.5
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.6%
No
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.9%
1-1
12.8%
0-2
12.2%
0-0
11.7%
1-2
8.9%
1-0
6.5%
0-3
6.2%
1-3
4.5%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth goals ↓
Maccabi Bnei Raina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
15%
12%
6.2%
2.4%
1
6.5%
13%
8.9%
4.5%
1.7%
2
2.8%
4.2%
3.2%
1.6%
0.6%
3
0.7%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maccabi Ahi Nazareth goals (down), columns = Maccabi Bnei Raina goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Ashdod
1.64
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.58
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.34
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.34
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth is 0.24 points worse than Maccabi Bnei Raina in terms of average points per game (1.34 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Ashdod
1.66
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.60
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth is 0.24 goals worse than Maccabi Bnei Raina in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ashdod
1.11
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.16
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth is 0.20 goals worse than Maccabi Bnei Raina in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth or Draw
44.7%
Avg Implied -
17%
28%
55%
covers Maccabi Ahi Nazareth + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth or Maccabi Bnei Raina
71.9%
Avg Implied -
17%
28%
55%
covers Maccabi Ahi Nazareth + Maccabi Bnei Raina
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Maccabi Bnei Raina
83.4%
Avg Implied -
17%
28%
55%
covers Draw + Maccabi Bnei Raina
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 0.5
Over
51.7%
Under
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 1.5
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 2.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 0.5
Over
78.3%
Under
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 1.5
Over
45.1%
Under
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 2.5
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 3.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Maccabi Ahi Nazareth, so a minus line means Maccabi Ahi Nazareth give that many goals of a start and Maccabi Bnei Raina receive them. At -1, Maccabi Ahi Nazareth must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Maccabi Ahi Nazareth)
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth -2
1.1%
Draw -2
4.0%
Maccabi Bnei Raina +2
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Maccabi Ahi Nazareth)
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth -1
5.0%
Draw -1
11.6%
Maccabi Bnei Raina +1
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Maccabi Ahi Nazareth)
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth +1
44.7%
Draw +1
25.6%
Maccabi Bnei Raina -1
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Maccabi Ahi Nazareth)
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth +2
70.3%
Draw +2
17.4%
Maccabi Bnei Raina -2
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.36
0.79
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.40
0.70
0.36
0.79
0.44
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Bnei Raina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Bnei Raina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.87
0.27
0.87
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.38
0.00
1.00
0.20
1.60
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.68
0.33
0.83
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Ahi Nazareth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
65.3%
Under 0.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.7%
Under 1.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
8.2%
Under 2.5
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.1%
Under
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.3%
Under
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.93
1.00
0.38
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.87
0.93
1.00
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Bnei Raina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Bnei Raina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.97
0.33
1.20
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.25
0.00
1.67
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.86
0.42
1.08
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Ahi Nazareth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.9%
Under 0.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.2%
Under 1.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.4%
Under 2.5
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.1%
Under
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.0%
Under
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (23)
€4m
BY (26)
€3m
MBR (18)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
KYS (24)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HR (18)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
IM (21)
€1m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MBR (8)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
KYS (10)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HR (6)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
IM (7)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BY (5)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HR (4)
€0m
KYS (6)
€0m
IM (6)
€0m
MBR (2)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (9)
€1m
BY (12)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
HR (8)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
KYS (8)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
IM (8)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
MAN wins
0
Draws
0
MBR wins
Head-to-head
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth vs Maccabi Bnei Raina · H/A from MAN
Israel: Liga Leumit 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bnei Yehuda
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Ra'anana
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Ashdod
Ironi Modi'in
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Kiryat Yam SC
Kafr Qasim
Maccabi Herzliya
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Hapoel Acre