The match is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. The probability of a Maccabi Bnei Raina victory is 32%, a draw 28%, and a Hapoel Afula win 40%. The average number of goals expected is 2.7, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model sees as most probable is 1-1, with a 13.6% chance. Maccabi Bnei Raina, at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.92 conceded, while Hapoel Afula, on the road against a similar side, averages 1.42 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.0%), Under 5.5 (94.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.5%), and Away under 3.5 goals (94.4%). The model’s selection for the match result is an away win, while the overall probabilities remain evenly balanced.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maccabi Bnei Raina win
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula win
40.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maccabi Bnei Raina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.83
0.60
2.07
1.00
1.60
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
2.62
0.00
2.67
0.40
2.60
vs Similar (22)
1.00
1.55
0.75
1.92
1.30
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Afula
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.27
1.06
1.12
1.36
1.43
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.80
1.33
1.33
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.20
1.36
1.00
1.08
1.42
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Bnei Raina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.6%
Under 2.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.1%
No
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-2
8.7%
0-1
8.7%
0-0
8.2%
2-1
7.6%
1-0
7.4%
0-2
7.1%
2-2
5.4%
Maccabi Bnei Raina goals ↓
Hapoel Afula goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
8.7%
7.1%
3.3%
1.2%
1
7.4%
14%
8.7%
4.1%
1.5%
2
5.4%
7.6%
5.4%
2.6%
0.9%
3
2.2%
3.1%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maccabi Bnei Raina goals (down), columns = Hapoel Afula goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Ashdod
1.64
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.58
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.34
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.34
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Maccabi Bnei Raina is 0.36 points better than Hapoel Afula in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Ashdod
1.66
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.60
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Maccabi Bnei Raina is 0.54 goals better than Hapoel Afula in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ashdod
1.11
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.16
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Maccabi Bnei Raina is 0.41 goals better than Hapoel Afula in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Maccabi Bnei Raina or Draw
60.0%
Avg Implied -
32%
28%
40%
covers Maccabi Bnei Raina + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina or Hapoel Afula
71.6%
Avg Implied -
32%
28%
40%
covers Maccabi Bnei Raina + Hapoel Afula
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hapoel Afula
68.4%
Avg Implied -
32%
28%
40%
covers Draw + Hapoel Afula
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 0.5
Over
71.0%
Under
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 1.5
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 2.5
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 0.5
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 1.5
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 2.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Maccabi Bnei Raina, so a minus line means Maccabi Bnei Raina give that many goals of a start and Hapoel Afula receive them. At -1, Maccabi Bnei Raina must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Maccabi Bnei Raina win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Maccabi Bnei Raina)
Maccabi Bnei Raina -2
4.6%
Draw -2
9.3%
Hapoel Afula +2
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Maccabi Bnei Raina)
Maccabi Bnei Raina -1
13.9%
Draw -1
17.7%
Hapoel Afula +1
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Maccabi Bnei Raina)
Maccabi Bnei Raina +1
60.0%
Draw +1
20.4%
Hapoel Afula -1
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Maccabi Bnei Raina)
Maccabi Bnei Raina +2
80.4%
Draw +2
12.2%
Hapoel Afula -2
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maccabi Bnei Raina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.87
0.27
0.87
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.38
0.00
1.00
0.20
1.60
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.68
0.33
0.83
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Afula
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.75
0.38
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.20
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.44
0.77
0.38
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Bnei Raina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.2%
Under 0.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.0%
Under 1.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.9%
Under 2.5
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.8%
Under
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.9%
Under
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maccabi Bnei Raina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.97
0.33
1.20
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.25
0.00
1.67
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.86
0.42
1.08
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Afula
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.31
0.75
0.71
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.92
0.23
0.69
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Bnei Raina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.3%
Under 0.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.6%
Under 1.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.5%
Under 2.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.2%
Under
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.0%
Under
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Bnei Raina over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (23)
€4m
BY (26)
€3m
MBR (18)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
KYS (24)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HR (18)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
IM (21)
€1m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Maccabi Bnei Raina's squad is €1m more valuable than Hapoel Afula's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MBR (8)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
KYS (10)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HR (6)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
IM (7)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Maccabi Bnei Raina's attack is €1m more valuable than Hapoel Afula's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BY (5)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HR (4)
€0m
KYS (6)
€0m
IM (6)
€0m
MBR (2)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Maccabi Bnei Raina and Hapoel Afula have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (9)
€1m
BY (12)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
HR (8)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
KYS (8)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
IM (8)
€0m
Maccabi Bnei Raina and Hapoel Afula have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Israel: Liga Leumit 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →
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Bnei Yehuda
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Ra'anana
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Ashdod
Ironi Modi'in
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Kiryat Yam SC
Kafr Qasim
Maccabi Herzliya
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Hapoel Acre