Pythia gives Maccabi Haifa a 48% win probability against Hapoel Tel Aviv in the Israel: Ligat Ha'al on 2026-05-19, with 27% for the draw and 25% for Hapoel Tel Aviv. The model estimates around 2.7 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.9%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (97%), Over 21.5 fouls (93%), Under 11.5 corners (88%), Over 2.5 cards (88%).
Results analysis
Maccabi Haifa finished 4-1 against Hapoel Tel Aviv (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 48% home win, 27% draw and 25% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (97%), Under 11.5 corners (88%), Over 2.5 cards (88%), Under 10.5 corners (81%), Over 1.5 (77%), Over 3.5 cards (75%). Missed: Over 21.5 fouls (93%), Over 23.5 fouls (85%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maccabi Haifa win✓ Hit
47.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Tel Aviv win✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maccabi Haifa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.40
1.93
1.27
1.20
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.86
1.43
1.25
1.50
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (23)
1.78
1.39
2.18
1.18
1.42
1.58
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Tel Aviv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.83
1.87
0.47
1.20
1.20
vs Stronger (10)
1.30
1.20
1.80
0.80
0.80
1.60
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.25
1.75
0.25
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (12)
1.92
0.92
2.00
0.33
1.83
1.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Haifa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.4%
Under 2.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.3%
Under 3.5
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.1%
No
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
9.3%
2-0
8.4%
0-0
7.7%
1-2
6.6%
0-1
6.1%
2-2
5.3%
Maccabi Haifa goals ↓
Hapoel Tel Aviv goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
6.1%
4.1%
1.5%
0.4%
1
9.3%
13%
6.6%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.4%
9.5%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.5%
5.1%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.8%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maccabi Haifa goals (down), columns = Hapoel Tel Aviv goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.19
Beitar Jerusalem
2.11
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.80
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.77
Maccabi Haifa
1.53
Maccabi Netanya
1.45
Ironi Tiberias
1.33
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.21
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.11
Hapoel Haifa
1.03
Bnei Sakhnin
1.03
Hapoel Katamon
0.94
Ashdod
0.85
Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.67
Maccabi Haifa is 0.24 points worse than Hapoel Tel Aviv in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.77).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.19
Beitar Jerusalem
2.17
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.06
Maccabi Haifa
1.83
Maccabi Netanya
1.79
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.57
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.52
Ironi Tiberias
1.36
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.33
Hapoel Haifa
1.18
Ashdod
1.15
Bnei Sakhnin
0.85
Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.79
Hapoel Katamon
0.79
Maccabi Haifa is 0.26 goals better than Hapoel Tel Aviv in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.00
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.06
Beitar Jerusalem
1.11
Hapoel Katamon
1.30
Maccabi Haifa
1.31
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.31
Bnei Sakhnin
1.48
Hapoel Haifa
1.55
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.58
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.61
Ironi Tiberias
1.70
Ashdod
1.88
Maccabi Netanya
1.91
Maccabi Bnei Raina
2.09
Maccabi Haifa is 0.31 goals worse than Hapoel Tel Aviv in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hapoel Beer Sheva
60%
Beitar Jerusalem
57%
Maccabi Haifa
54%
Maccabi Tel Aviv
53%
Maccabi Netanya
50%
Hapoel Tel Aviv
47%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
47%
Ashdod
46%
Hapoel Haifa
43%
Bnei Sakhnin
39%
Maccabi Haifa is 6.6 percentage points better than Hapoel Tel Aviv in terms of average possession (54% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Maccabi Haifa
For 4.6 · Against 2.8 · Total 7.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.7 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hapoel Tel Aviv
For 4.9 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.7 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 16.8 · Total 30.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maccabi Haifa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.4
8.6
3.4
3.3
3.5
27.2
27.5
27.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
8.9
9.7
8.0
4.2
4.7
3.7
29.7
29.3
30.2
vs Weaker (36)
8.2
7.6
8.8
3.1
2.7
3.4
26.0
26.5
25.5
% over line
36%
29%
44%
50%
56%
44%
85%
88%
81%
% under line
64%
71%
56%
50%
44%
56%
15%
12%
19%
This opponent (Hapoel Tel Aviv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
9.2
8.1
2.7
2.7
2.7
30.1
28.3
32.1
vs Stronger (11)
8.2
10.0
6.4
4.3
3.2
5.6
30.8
27.8
33.8
vs Similar (10)
9.7
9.5
10.0
2.3
3.2
1.0
33.0
32.0
35.0
vs Weaker (29)
8.9
8.4
9.4
2.2
2.3
2.1
28.6
27.4
29.8
% over line
39%
42%
36%
36%
33%
39%
96%
92%
100%
% under line
61%
58%
64%
64%
67%
61%
4%
8%
0%
This opponent (Maccabi Haifa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bnei Sakhnin
9.6
Hapoel Beer Sheva
9.4
Hapoel Tel Aviv
9.2
Hapoel Haifa
9.0
Maccabi Tel Aviv
8.9
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
8.9
Ashdod
8.8
Beitar Jerusalem
8.7
Maccabi Netanya
8.7
Maccabi Haifa
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maccabi Netanya
6.1
Hapoel Tel Aviv
5.6
Hapoel Beer Sheva
5.5
Hapoel Haifa
5.5
Beitar Jerusalem
5.4
Maccabi Haifa
5.2
Ashdod
5.0
Maccabi Tel Aviv
4.9
Bnei Sakhnin
4.8
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Maccabi Tel Aviv
28.4
Hapoel Beer Sheva
28.0
Beitar Jerusalem
27.7
Maccabi Haifa
27.5
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
26.8
Hapoel Tel Aviv
26.1
Hapoel Haifa
25.9
Ashdod
25.3
Maccabi Netanya
25.1
Bnei Sakhnin
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
28.8%
Under 9.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
74.9%
Under 3.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
92.7%
Under 21.5
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maccabi Haifa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.93
0.27
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.14
0.71
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
0.83
0.39
1.18
0.18
0.50
0.58
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Tel Aviv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.37
0.60
0.20
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.50
0.40
0.20
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.25
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.25
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.33
0.67
0.17
1.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Haifa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maccabi Haifa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Haifa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Haifa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 9.5 corners
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (38)
€46m
MH (46)
€30m
HBS (33)
€25m
BJ (39)
€20m
HTA (39)
€17m
MN (36)
€12m
HK (34)
€11m
HPT (36)
€9m
IKS (31)
€8m
ASH (42)
€8m
HH (40)
€7m
MBR (35)
€6m
IT (29)
€5m
BS (39)
€5m
Maccabi Haifa's squad is €13m more valuable than Hapoel Tel Aviv's (€30m vs €17m).
Israel: Ligat Ha'al 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Ligat Ha'al stats & trends →