The contest between Maccabi Haifa and Maccabi Tel Aviv is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities stand at 33% and 41% respectively, with a 26% chance of a draw. The expected total goals hover around 3.1, but the most likely total is 2, occurring 23% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.1% probability. Maccabi Haifa, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 4.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded, while Maccabi Tel Aviv, on the road, averages 0.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 84.8%, Over 1.5 goals at 82.0% (a hit), and Over 19.5 fouls at 81.6%. All figures are presented once, with no repetition or extraneous commentary.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Maccabi Tel Aviv, failed to deliver, as Maccabi Haifa secured a 2-0 victory, extending their recent run with a win after a defeat. The model had predicted an away win with a 41% probability, but that call was wrong. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 goals, at 82%, hit, with the match producing two goals. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 12.1%, but the game finished 2-0. The final result, a home win, was not in line with the model’s favourite prediction.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maccabi Haifa win✓ Hit
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Tel Aviv win✗ Miss
40.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maccabi Haifa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.92
1.38
2.67
1.33
1.29
1.43
vs Stronger (6)
1.83
1.67
1.67
2.00
2.00
1.33
vs Similar (3)
2.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
1.25
3.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Tel Aviv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
0.36
2.50
0.17
2.00
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.75
1.50
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (7)
3.00
0.14
3.00
0.25
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Haifa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.0%
Under 1.5
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.9%
Under 2.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.5%
Under 3.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.2%
No
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
0-2
6.1%
0-0
5.8%
1-0
5.7%
Maccabi Haifa goals ↓
Maccabi Tel Aviv goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
6.5%
6.1%
3.3%
1.3%
1
5.7%
12%
8.8%
4.7%
1.9%
2
4.9%
7.9%
6.4%
3.4%
1.4%
3
2.4%
3.8%
3.1%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maccabi Haifa goals (down), columns = Maccabi Tel Aviv goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Haifa
2.33
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.14
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.03
Beitar Jerusalem
1.30
Maccabi Netanya
1.25
Hapoel Katamon
1.25
Hapoel Haifa
1.24
Ashdod
1.19
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.12
Bnei Sakhnin
1.12
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.06
Hapoel Hadera
1.03
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.97
Sektzia Nes Tziona
0.76
Maccabi Haifa is 0.31 points better than Maccabi Tel Aviv in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maccabi Haifa
2.11
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.92
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.81
Beitar Jerusalem
1.58
Maccabi Netanya
1.22
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.21
Bnei Sakhnin
1.18
Ashdod
1.14
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.12
Hapoel Haifa
1.06
Hapoel Hadera
1.06
Hapoel Katamon
1.06
Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.97
Sektzia Nes Tziona
0.94
Maccabi Haifa is 0.19 goals better than Maccabi Tel Aviv in terms of goals scored per game (2.11 vs 1.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maccabi Tel Aviv
0.64
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.81
Maccabi Haifa
0.94
Hapoel Haifa
1.06
Hapoel Katamon
1.22
Ashdod
1.28
Bnei Sakhnin
1.33
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.48
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.55
Hapoel Hadera
1.61
Maccabi Netanya
1.61
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.64
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.70
Beitar Jerusalem
1.76
Maccabi Haifa is 0.31 goals worse than Maccabi Tel Aviv in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 0.64).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bnei Sakhnin
68%
Hapoel Tel Aviv
61%
Maccabi Netanya
53%
Beitar Jerusalem
47%
Sektzia Nes Tziona
42%
Hapoel Haifa
34%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Maccabi Haifa
For 4.5 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 12.2 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maccabi Tel Aviv
For 4.5 · Against 6.7 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 3.6 · Total 6.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.3 · Against 10.3 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maccabi Haifa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (13)
8.6
8.8
8.5
3.2
3.0
3.4
25.6
23.7
28.5
vs Stronger (6)
8.0
8.7
7.3
5.0
5.0
5.0
26.8
25.0
28.5
vs Similar (3)
10.5
9.0
12.0
4.0
3.0
4.5
21.0
21.0
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
25%
25%
25%
38%
33%
43%
80%
67%
100%
% under line
75%
75%
75%
62%
67%
57%
20%
33%
0%
This opponent (Maccabi Tel Aviv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (11)
11.2
10.3
12.0
3.0
1.3
5.0
24.7
25.0
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
10.8
10.0
11.5
7.0
4.0
10.0
24.7
25.0
24.0
vs Weaker (7)
12.0
11.0
13.0
0.7
0.0
1.7
-
-
-
% over line
67%
67%
67%
45%
33%
60%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
33%
33%
33%
55%
67%
40%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Maccabi Haifa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Maccabi Tel Aviv
11.2
Hapoel Beer Sheva
9.6
Maccabi Netanya
9.0
Maccabi Haifa
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maccabi Tel Aviv
6.6
Hapoel Beer Sheva
5.6
Maccabi Haifa
5.2
Maccabi Netanya
5.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
31.0
Maccabi Haifa
25.6
Maccabi Tel Aviv
24.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.3%
Under 9.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
69.0%
Under 3.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
68.0%
Under 21.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maccabi Haifa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.62
1.00
0.83
1.00
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
31% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Tel Aviv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.09
1.33
0.00
1.20
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
0.00
1.75
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
91% (+63pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Haifa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maccabi Haifa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Haifa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Haifa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Tel Aviv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Tel Aviv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Tel Aviv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maccabi Haifa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.31
0.38
1.83
0.33
0.86
0.43
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.67
vs Similar (3)
1.33
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.25
2.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
77% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Tel Aviv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.27
1.17
0.17
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.14
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
82% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Haifa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maccabi Haifa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Haifa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Haifa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Tel Aviv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Tel Aviv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Tel Aviv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Maccabi Haifa
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tjaronn Chery38%
Abdoulaye Seck17%
Daniel Sundgren17%
Frantzdy Pierrot12%
Omer Atzili12%
Dean David12%
Dylan Batubinsika0%
Mavis Tchibota0%
Josh Cohen0%
Pierre Cornud0%
Mohammad Abu Fani0%
Dolev Haziza0%
Nikita Rukavytsya0%
Neta Lavi0%
Sun Menahem0%
Sean Goldberg0%
Ali Mohamed El Fazaz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sun Menahem40%
Omer Atzili38%
Abdoulaye Seck33%
Mavis Tchibota25%
Neta Lavi25%
Dolev Haziza20%
Daniel Sundgren17%
Pierre Cornud14%
Mohammad Abu Fani14%
Frantzdy Pierrot12%
Tjaronn Chery12%
Dylan Batubinsika0%
Josh Cohen0%
Nikita Rukavytsya0%
Dean David0%
Sean Goldberg0%
Ali Mohamed El Fazaz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dolev Haziza40%
Frantzdy Pierrot25%
Pierre Cornud14%
Tjaronn Chery12%
Omer Atzili12%
Dylan Batubinsika0%
Abdoulaye Seck0%
Daniel Sundgren0%
Mavis Tchibota0%
Josh Cohen0%
Mohammad Abu Fani0%
Nikita Rukavytsya0%
Neta Lavi0%
Sun Menahem0%
Dean David0%
Sean Goldberg0%
Ali Mohamed El Fazaz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tjaronn Chery50%
Omer Atzili25%
Frantzdy Pierrot12%
Dylan Batubinsika0%
Abdoulaye Seck0%
Daniel Sundgren0%
Mavis Tchibota0%
Josh Cohen0%
Pierre Cornud0%
Mohammad Abu Fani0%
Dolev Haziza0%
Nikita Rukavytsya0%
Neta Lavi0%
Sun Menahem0%
Dean David0%
Sean Goldberg0%
Ali Mohamed El Fazaz0%
Maccabi Tel Aviv · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dor Peretz67%
Osher Davida33%
Ido Shahar33%
Mohamed Camara0%
Ester Sokler0%
Raz Shlomo0%
Issouf Sissokho0%
Tyrese Asante0%
Roy Revivo0%
Noam Ben Harosh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mohamed Camara33%
Raz Shlomo33%
Issouf Sissokho33%
Dor Peretz0%
Ester Sokler0%
Osher Davida0%
Ido Shahar0%
Tyrese Asante0%
Roy Revivo0%
Noam Ben Harosh0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mohamed Camara33%
Dor Peretz33%
Roy Revivo33%
Ester Sokler0%
Raz Shlomo0%
Osher Davida0%
Ido Shahar0%
Issouf Sissokho0%
Tyrese Asante0%
Noam Ben Harosh0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dor Peretz33%
Osher Davida33%
Ido Shahar33%
Roy Revivo33%
Mohamed Camara0%
Ester Sokler0%
Raz Shlomo0%
Issouf Sissokho0%
Tyrese Asante0%
Noam Ben Harosh0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (29)
€35m
MH (33)
€27m
HBS (26)
€20m
HTA (27)
€18m
BJ (28)
€17m
MN (24)
€11m
IKS (22)
€7m
HK (21)
€6m
BS (20)
€5m
HH (18)
€4m
ASH (23)
€4m
MBR (18)
€3m
Maccabi Haifa's squad is €8m less valuable than Maccabi Tel Aviv's (€27m vs €35m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (12)
€13m
HTA (13)
€11m
HBS (13)
€10m
BJ (11)
€9m
MH (11)
€7m
MN (5)
€3m
IKS (8)
€3m
BS (6)
€2m
MBR (8)
€2m
HH (6)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
Maccabi Haifa's attack is €6m less valuable than Maccabi Tel Aviv's (€7m vs €13m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MH (9)
€10m
MTA (6)
€9m
HBS (3)
€5m
MN (8)
€3m
BJ (5)
€3m
HTA (4)
€2m
HK (5)
€1m
IKS (3)
€1m
BS (6)
€1m
HH (3)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
MBR (2)
€0m
Maccabi Haifa and Maccabi Tel Aviv have a similar midfield value (both €10m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (11)
€13m
MH (13)
€10m
BJ (12)
€5m
MN (11)
€5m
HBS (10)
€5m
HTA (10)
€5m
HK (11)
€3m
IKS (11)
€2m
HH (9)
€2m
BS (8)
€2m
ASH (9)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
Maccabi Haifa's defence is €3m less valuable than Maccabi Tel Aviv's (€10m vs €13m).
Israel: Ligat Ha'al 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Ligat Ha'al stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Katamon
Maccabi Netanya
Ashdod
Beitar Jerusalem
Hapoel Haifa
Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Maccabi Bnei Raina
Hapoel Hadera
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Sektzia Nes Tziona