The encounter between Maccabi Herzliya and Kafr Qasim is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but leaving room for a draw or an away triumph. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.2% chance. Maccabi Herzliya, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.53 conceded, while Kafr Qasim, on the road, averages 0.73 goals scored and 0.91 conceded versus comparable opposition.
The probabilities for the match outcome are 41% for a home win, 30% for a draw, and 30% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Under 5.5 (96.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.5%), Under 4.5 (90.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (90.1%), and Home +2 handicap (87.9%). Each pick is presented with its exact percentage. Maccabi Herzliya’s recent form shows a win, loss, draw, draw, win, while Kafr Qasim comes off a win, loss, loss, draw, draw, with a 4-0 victory over Hapoel Acre. This balanced backdrop keeps the outcome uncertain, despite the slight edge for the home side.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maccabi Herzliya win
39.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim win
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maccabi Herzliya
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.43
1.33
1.60
1.53
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.39
1.50
1.33
1.60
1.46
1.38
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kafr Qasim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kafr Qasim
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.33
1.13
1.33
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.04
1.39
1.21
1.43
0.86
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Herzliya) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.7%
Under 1.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.3%
Under 2.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 3.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.1%
No
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
10.3%
0-0
10.3%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.4%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.3%
0-2
5.6%
Maccabi Herzliya goals ↓
Kafr Qasim goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.8%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.3%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.5%
8.4%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.2%
3.6%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maccabi Herzliya goals (down), columns = Kafr Qasim goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Ashdod
1.64
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.58
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.34
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.34
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Maccabi Herzliya is 0.57 points better than Kafr Qasim in terms of average points per game (1.68 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Ashdod
1.66
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.60
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Maccabi Herzliya is 0.35 goals better than Kafr Qasim in terms of goals scored per game (1.49 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ashdod
1.11
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.16
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Maccabi Herzliya is 0.14 goals better than Kafr Qasim in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Maccabi Herzliya or Draw
69.2%
Avg Implied -
39%
30%
31%
covers Maccabi Herzliya + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya or Kafr Qasim
69.9%
Avg Implied -
39%
30%
31%
covers Maccabi Herzliya + Kafr Qasim
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kafr Qasim
60.9%
Avg Implied -
39%
30%
31%
covers Draw + Kafr Qasim
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 0.5
Over
72.5%
Under
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 1.5
Over
37.0%
Under
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 2.5
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 3.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 0.5
Over
67.3%
Under
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 1.5
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 2.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Maccabi Herzliya, so a minus line means Maccabi Herzliya give that many goals of a start and Kafr Qasim receive them. At -1, Maccabi Herzliya must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Maccabi Herzliya win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Maccabi Herzliya)
Maccabi Herzliya -2
6.4%
Draw -2
11.8%
Kafr Qasim +2
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Maccabi Herzliya)
Maccabi Herzliya -1
18.2%
Draw -1
20.9%
Kafr Qasim +1
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Maccabi Herzliya)
Maccabi Herzliya +1
69.2%
Draw +1
18.0%
Kafr Qasim -1
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Maccabi Herzliya)
Maccabi Herzliya +2
87.2%
Draw +2
8.9%
Kafr Qasim -2
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maccabi Herzliya
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.54
0.67
0.67
0.77
0.38
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Kafr Qasim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kafr Qasim
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.83
0.27
0.87
0.20
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.25
0.86
0.29
0.93
0.21
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Herzliya) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maccabi Herzliya
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.93
0.67
0.93
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.96
0.67
0.93
0.69
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kafr Qasim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kafr Qasim
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.87
0.47
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.54
0.93
0.50
0.64
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Herzliya) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kafr Qasim over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (23)
€4m
BY (26)
€3m
MBR (18)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
KYS (24)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HR (18)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
IM (21)
€1m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Maccabi Herzliya and Kafr Qasim have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MBR (8)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
KYS (10)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HR (6)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
IM (7)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Maccabi Herzliya and Kafr Qasim have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BY (5)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HR (4)
€0m
KYS (6)
€0m
IM (6)
€0m
MBR (2)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Maccabi Herzliya and Kafr Qasim have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (9)
€1m
BY (12)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
HR (8)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
KYS (8)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
IM (8)
€0m
Maccabi Herzliya and Kafr Qasim have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Israel: Liga Leumit 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →