The model favours an away win, with a 44 % chance for Kiryat Yam SC, a 30 % chance for Maccabi Herzliya and a 26 % chance of a draw. The expected total is three goals, but the most likely total is two, with a 23 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.2 % chance. Maccabi Herzliya, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. Kiryat Yam SC, on the road, averages 1.44 goals scored and 1.25 conceded against similar teams. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.8 %), Under 6.5 (96.6 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.3 %), Under 5.5 (91.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (91.2 %), Away +2 handicap (86.5 %), Home under 2.5 goals (84.8 %) and Under 4.5 (81.4 %). Both sides are coming off defeats, with Maccabi Herzliya losing 2-3 to Hapoel Ra'anana and Kiryat Yam SC losing 0-1 to Maccabi Bnei Raina. The match is likely to be tight, with the model predicting a 1-1 draw as the most probable scoreline.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maccabi Herzliya win
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC win
45.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maccabi Herzliya
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.43
1.33
1.60
1.53
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.39
1.50
1.33
1.60
1.46
1.38
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kiryat Yam SC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kiryat Yam SC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.33
1.08
1.31
1.47
1.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.30
1.33
1.08
1.31
1.47
1.35
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Herzliya) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.5%
Under 1.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.8%
Under 2.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.4%
Under 3.5
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.3%
No
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
1-2
9.3%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
6.8%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
5.6%
1-3
5.4%
Maccabi Herzliya goals ↓
Kiryat Yam SC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
6.8%
6.8%
3.9%
1.7%
1
5.1%
12%
9.3%
5.4%
2.3%
2
4.2%
7.3%
6.3%
3.6%
1.6%
3
1.9%
3.3%
2.9%
1.7%
0.7%
4
0.6%
1.1%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maccabi Herzliya goals (down), columns = Kiryat Yam SC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Ashdod
1.64
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.58
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.34
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.34
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Maccabi Herzliya is 0.22 points better than Kiryat Yam SC in terms of average points per game (1.68 vs 1.46).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Ashdod
1.66
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.60
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Maccabi Herzliya is 0.19 goals better than Kiryat Yam SC in terms of goals scored per game (1.49 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ashdod
1.11
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.16
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Maccabi Herzliya is 0.03 goals worse than Kiryat Yam SC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Maccabi Herzliya or Draw
54.8%
Avg Implied -
29%
26%
45%
covers Maccabi Herzliya + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya or Kiryat Yam SC
74.4%
Avg Implied -
29%
26%
45%
covers Maccabi Herzliya + Kiryat Yam SC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kiryat Yam SC
70.8%
Avg Implied -
29%
26%
45%
covers Draw + Kiryat Yam SC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 0.5
Over
74.4%
Under
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 1.5
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 2.5
Over
15.7%
Under
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 3.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 0.5
Over
82.3%
Under
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 1.5
Over
51.7%
Under
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 2.5
Over
25.2%
Under
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 3.5
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Maccabi Herzliya, so a minus line means Maccabi Herzliya give that many goals of a start and Kiryat Yam SC receive them. At -1, Maccabi Herzliya must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Maccabi Herzliya win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Maccabi Herzliya)
Maccabi Herzliya -2
4.7%
Draw -2
8.6%
Kiryat Yam SC +2
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Maccabi Herzliya)
Maccabi Herzliya -1
13.3%
Draw -1
15.9%
Kiryat Yam SC +1
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Maccabi Herzliya)
Maccabi Herzliya +1
54.8%
Draw +1
20.5%
Kiryat Yam SC -1
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Maccabi Herzliya)
Maccabi Herzliya +2
75.3%
Draw +2
14.0%
Kiryat Yam SC -2
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maccabi Herzliya
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.54
0.67
0.67
0.77
0.38
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Kiryat Yam SC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kiryat Yam SC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.08
0.77
0.71
0.65
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.43
0.70
0.08
0.77
0.71
0.65
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Herzliya) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maccabi Herzliya
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.93
0.67
0.93
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.96
0.67
0.93
0.69
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kiryat Yam SC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kiryat Yam SC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
1.00
0.54
0.76
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.87
0.63
1.00
0.54
0.76
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Herzliya) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (23)
€4m
BY (26)
€3m
MBR (18)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
KYS (24)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HR (18)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
IM (21)
€1m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Maccabi Herzliya and Kiryat Yam SC have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MBR (8)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
KYS (10)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HR (6)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
IM (7)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Maccabi Herzliya and Kiryat Yam SC have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BY (5)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HR (4)
€0m
KYS (6)
€0m
IM (6)
€0m
MBR (2)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Maccabi Herzliya and Kiryat Yam SC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (9)
€1m
BY (12)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
HR (8)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
KYS (8)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
IM (8)
€0m
Maccabi Herzliya and Kiryat Yam SC have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Israel: Liga Leumit 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →