PythiaFootballBETA
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa host Hapoel Afula in a finely balanced encounter, with recent form playing a significant role in shaping expectations. The home side is on a 2-game winning run, having thrashed Hapoel Hadera 6-1 in their last outing. In contrast, Hapoel Afula is coming off a win against Kafr Qasim, but their away form has been inconsistent.
The model predicts a home win, with a 40% chance of Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa taking the three points. The draw is a 28% possibility, while an away win for Hapoel Afula is 32% likely. The expected total goals stand at 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The model's selection is a home win, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 13.6% of the time.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa have averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.47 conceded at home against similar opponents. Hapoel Afula, meanwhile, have averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.55 conceded away against similar opponents. The model's suggested picks are Over 1.5, with a 75.6% chance of hitting, and Under 3.5, with a 72.4% chance of missing. The home win percentage is 40%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 32%.
The win extends Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa's run, who are now on a 2-game winning streak. In a game that defied expectations, the final score was 4-1 in favour of the home team. The model's selection, a Home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 40%. The model's call was correct, as they predicted the home team would emerge victorious.
The model's selection, a Home win, was correct, while the suggested picks, Over 1.5 with a 75.6% probability and Under 3.5 with a 72.4% probability, were hit and missed respectively. The actual total of 5 goals was well clear of the expected 2.7 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals, as predicted by the model with a 26% probability.
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.43 | 1.27 | 1.47 | 1.93 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.57 | 2.14 | 2.00 | 4.33 | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.65 | 1.10 | 1.09 | 0.82 | 2.33 | 1.44 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
Hapoel Afula| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.43 | 0.88 | 1.56 | 1.43 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 1.47 | 1.27 | 1.56 | 1.44 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.80 | 1.60 | 0.00 | 1.71 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
| Hapoel Afula goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 8.7% | 14% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.57 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.60 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 0.18 | 0.89 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+39pp vs league) | |||||
Hapoel Afula| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.44 | 0.75 | 0.64 | 0.43 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.78 | 0.67 | 0.83 | 0.17 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.27 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.86 | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 75.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 17/10/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 09/05/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 17/01/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 12/09/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 05/01/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 24/08/23 | H | 5-1 | |
| 09/01/23 | H | 0-1 |
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 30/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 24/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 27/03/26 | A | 0-1 |
Hapoel Afula| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 30/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 24/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 27/03/26 | H | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Maccabi Petah Tikva | 37 | 67 | 49% | 1.8 | 77 | 42 | +35 | 3.2 | 84% | 62% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 2 |  Hapoel Ramat Gan | 37 | 64 | 49% | 1.7 | 59 | 41 | +18 | 2.7 | 78% | 51% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | - |
| 3 |  Maccabi Herzliya | 37 | 62 | 46% | 1.7 | 55 | 44 | +11 | 2.7 | 78% | 54% | 32% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 4 |  Bnei Yehuda | 37 | 57 | 41% | 1.5 | 46 | 44 | +2 | 2.4 | 65% | 38% | 24% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 |  Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 37 | 56 | 43% | 1.5 | 67 | 63 | +4 | 3.5 | 86% | 73% | 54% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | - |
| 6 |  Kiryat Yam SC | 37 | 54 | 41% | 1.5 | 48 | 43 | +5 | 2.5 | 76% | 43% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 37 | 51 | 38% | 1.4 | 66 | 58 | +8 | 3.4 | 73% | 59% | 49% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 8 |  Hapoel Kfar Saba | 37 | 50 | 35% | 1.4 | 52 | 50 | +2 | 2.8 | 81% | 49% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 9 |  Hapoel Ra'anana | 37 | 50 | 35% | 1.4 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 2.3 | 73% | 41% | 16% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | - |
| 10 |  Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 37 | 49 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 2.8 | 86% | 51% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | - |
| 11 | Hapoel Afula | 37 | 45 | 30% | 1.2 | 39 | 58 | -19 | 2.6 | 76% | 46% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 |  Kafr Qasim | 37 | 41 | 24% | 1.1 | 42 | 49 | -7 | 2.5 | 73% | 41% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 |  Hapoel Acre | 37 | 40 | 22% | 1.1 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 2.4 | 73% | 43% | 24% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | - |
| 14 |  Ironi Modi'in | 37 | 40 | 27% | 1.1 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 2.3 | 57% | 43% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | - |
| 15 |  Hapoel Nazareth Illit | 37 | 37 | 19% | 1.0 | 44 | 58 | -14 | 2.8 | 84% | 51% | 35% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 16 |  Hapoel Hadera | 37 | 32 | 16% | 0.9 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 2.7 | 73% | 49% | 32% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.6 | - |