Maccabi Tel Aviv are favoured to win, with a 47% chance of a home victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of a Hapoel Tel Aviv win. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals occurring 26% of the time. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.3% probability. Maccabi’s home form shows they average two goals scored and 0.75 conceded against weaker opposition, while Hapoel, playing away against stronger opponents, averages one goal scored and one conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.5%, Under 6.5 at 98.2%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.7%, Under 5.5 at 95.0%, Home under 3.5 goals at 92.8%, Over 19.5 fouls at 92.4%, Away under 2.5 goals at 90.9% and Home +2 handicap at 90.3%. Maccabi’s recent form, coming off a win, and Hapoel’s draw-heavy run add context to the anticipated tight contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maccabi Tel Aviv win
47.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Tel Aviv win
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.37
1.67
1.13
2.27
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.46
1.85
1.29
1.57
1.67
2.17
vs Weaker (17)
2.35
1.00
2.00
0.75
2.67
1.22
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Tel Aviv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.90
1.62
0.54
1.00
1.18
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.45
0.95
1.90
0.50
1.08
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Tel Aviv) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.6%
Under 2.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.8%
Under 3.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.9%
No
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
8.8%
0-0
8.5%
0-1
6.6%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
5.0%
Maccabi Tel Aviv goals ↓
Hapoel Tel Aviv goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
6.6%
4.1%
1.5%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.4%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.4%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.6%
4.9%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maccabi Tel Aviv goals (down), columns = Hapoel Tel Aviv goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Tel Aviv
3.00
Beitar Jerusalem
3.00
Hapoel Tel Aviv
2.00
Maccabi Netanya
2.00
Hapoel Katamon
1.80
Hapoel Haifa
1.80
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.32
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.20
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.20
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.16
Bnei Sakhnin
1.00
Ironi Tiberias
0.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.00
Maccabi Haifa
0.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv is 1.00 points better than Hapoel Tel Aviv in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Beitar Jerusalem
3.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.00
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.80
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.67
Hapoel Katamon
1.60
Maccabi Netanya
1.60
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.26
Bnei Sakhnin
1.20
Ironi Tiberias
1.20
Hapoel Haifa
1.20
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.11
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.00
Maccabi Haifa
0.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv is 0.33 goals better than Hapoel Tel Aviv in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beitar Jerusalem
0.33
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.00
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.00
Hapoel Katamon
1.20
Maccabi Netanya
1.40
Ironi Tiberias
1.40
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.56
Bnei Sakhnin
1.60
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.60
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.77
Hapoel Haifa
1.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.00
Maccabi Haifa
2.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv and Hapoel Tel Aviv are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Maccabi Tel Aviv or Draw
75.2%
Avg Implied -
47%
28%
25%
covers Maccabi Tel Aviv + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Tel Aviv or Hapoel Tel Aviv
72.2%
Avg Implied -
47%
28%
25%
covers Maccabi Tel Aviv + Hapoel Tel Aviv
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hapoel Tel Aviv
52.6%
Avg Implied -
47%
28%
25%
covers Draw + Hapoel Tel Aviv
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Maccabi Tel Aviv over/under 0.5
Over
78.8%
Under
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Tel Aviv over/under 1.5
Over
46.0%
Under
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Tel Aviv over/under 2.5
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Tel Aviv over/under 3.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 0.5
Over
65.5%
Under
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 1.5
Over
28.8%
Under
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 2.5
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Maccabi Tel Aviv, so a minus line means Maccabi Tel Aviv give that many goals of a start and Hapoel Tel Aviv receive them. At -1, Maccabi Tel Aviv must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Maccabi Tel Aviv win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Maccabi Tel Aviv)
Maccabi Tel Aviv -2
10.2%
Draw -2
14.8%
Hapoel Tel Aviv +2
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Maccabi Tel Aviv)
Maccabi Tel Aviv -1
24.9%
Draw -1
22.5%
Hapoel Tel Aviv +1
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Maccabi Tel Aviv)
Maccabi Tel Aviv +1
75.2%
Draw +1
15.0%
Hapoel Tel Aviv -1
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Maccabi Tel Aviv)
Maccabi Tel Aviv +2
90.2%
Draw +2
6.9%
Hapoel Tel Aviv -2
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.50
0.87
0.33
1.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.62
0.71
0.57
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (17)
1.35
0.41
1.00
0.12
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Tel Aviv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.37
0.54
0.15
0.29
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.36
0.70
0.10
0.33
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Tel Aviv) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maccabi Tel Aviv over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Tel Aviv over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Tel Aviv over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.87
0.80
0.80
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.69
1.23
0.57
1.00
0.83
1.50
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.59
1.00
0.62
1.00
0.56
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Tel Aviv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
1.08
0.38
0.71
0.65
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.59
1.20
0.40
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Tel Aviv) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maccabi Tel Aviv over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Tel Aviv over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Tel Aviv over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Tel Aviv over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dor Peretz67%
Osher Davida33%
Ido Shahar33%
Mohamed Camara0%
Ester Sokler0%
Raz Shlomo0%
Issouf Sissokho0%
Tyrese Asante0%
Roy Revivo0%
Noam Ben Harosh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mohamed Camara33%
Raz Shlomo33%
Issouf Sissokho33%
Dor Peretz0%
Ester Sokler0%
Osher Davida0%
Ido Shahar0%
Tyrese Asante0%
Roy Revivo0%
Noam Ben Harosh0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mohamed Camara33%
Dor Peretz33%
Roy Revivo33%
Ester Sokler0%
Raz Shlomo0%
Osher Davida0%
Ido Shahar0%
Issouf Sissokho0%
Tyrese Asante0%
Noam Ben Harosh0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dor Peretz33%
Osher Davida33%
Ido Shahar33%
Roy Revivo33%
Mohamed Camara0%
Ester Sokler0%
Raz Shlomo0%
Issouf Sissokho0%
Tyrese Asante0%
Noam Ben Harosh0%
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Roee Alkokin25%
D. Owusu25%
D. Dappa25%
Emmanuel Boateng0%
Chico0%
Falcão0%
F. Mayembo0%
M. Coco0%
Omri Altman0%
A. Tzur0%
Andrian Kraev0%
Doron Leidner0%
S. Torial0%
Mor Buskila0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
S. Torial67%
Chico50%
Falcão50%
M. Coco50%
Omri Altman33%
F. Mayembo25%
Andrian Kraev25%
Doron Leidner25%
Emmanuel Boateng0%
A. Tzur0%
Roee Alkokin0%
Mor Buskila0%
D. Owusu0%
D. Dappa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
S. Torial33%
Emmanuel Boateng25%
Chico0%
Falcão0%
F. Mayembo0%
M. Coco0%
Omri Altman0%
A. Tzur0%
Andrian Kraev0%
Doron Leidner0%
Roee Alkokin0%
Mor Buskila0%
D. Owusu0%
D. Dappa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Roee Alkokin25%
D. Owusu25%
Emmanuel Boateng0%
Chico0%
Falcão0%
F. Mayembo0%
M. Coco0%
Omri Altman0%
A. Tzur0%
Andrian Kraev0%
Doron Leidner0%
S. Torial0%
Mor Buskila0%
D. Dappa0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (29)
€35m
MH (33)
€27m
HBS (26)
€20m
HTA (27)
€18m
BJ (28)
€17m
MN (24)
€11m
IKS (22)
€7m
MPT (25)
€6m
HK (21)
€6m
HPT (22)
€6m
HRG (26)
€5m
BS (20)
€5m
IT (24)
€5m
HH (18)
€4m
Maccabi Tel Aviv's squad is €18m more valuable than Hapoel Tel Aviv's (€35m vs €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (12)
€13m
HTA (13)
€11m
HBS (13)
€10m
BJ (11)
€9m
MH (11)
€7m
MN (5)
€3m
MPT (11)
€3m
IKS (8)
€3m
IT (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (6)
€2m
BS (6)
€2m
HH (6)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
Maccabi Tel Aviv's attack is €3m more valuable than Hapoel Tel Aviv's (€13m vs €11m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MH (9)
€10m
MTA (6)
€9m
HBS (3)
€5m
MN (8)
€3m
BJ (5)
€3m
HTA (4)
€2m
HK (5)
€1m
HPT (5)
€1m
IKS (3)
€1m
BS (6)
€1m
HRG (6)
€1m
MPT (4)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
HH (3)
€1m
Maccabi Tel Aviv's midfield is €7m more valuable than Hapoel Tel Aviv's (€9m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (11)
€13m
MH (13)
€10m
BJ (12)
€5m
MN (11)
€5m
HBS (10)
€5m
HTA (10)
€5m
HK (11)
€3m
IKS (11)
€2m
HH (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (11)
€2m
BS (8)
€2m
MPT (10)
€2m
IT (10)
€2m
Maccabi Tel Aviv's defence is €8m more valuable than Hapoel Tel Aviv's (€13m vs €5m).
Israel: Ligat Ha'al 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Ligat Ha'al stats & trends →
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Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Netanya
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Maccabi Haifa
Ironi Tiberias
Hapoel Haifa
Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Katamon
Beitar Jerusalem