Macva’s recent draw against Novi Pazar and Radnicki 1923’s draw versus Radnicki NIS both hint at a tightly contested match, and the model’s most likely outcome is a draw. The probability of a home win sits at 37%, a draw at 38%, and an away win at 25%. The expected total goals is 1.6, with the most probable total of one goal at 30%. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 0-0, with a 21.8% chance.
Macva averages 1.58 goals scored and 0.42 conceded at home against teams of similar strength, while Radnicki 1923 averages 0.57 goals scored and 0.79 conceded away against similar opponents. The model’s selection list includes Under 7.5 (100%), Under 6.5 (99.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.5% with a 10% edge), Under 5.5 (99.4% with an 8% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.7% with a 6% edge), Over 19.5 fouls (97.9%), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.9%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Macva win
37.3%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.72
Edge
+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.94
Dafabet
3.85
Bet365
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Draw
37.8%
Avg Implied 28.3% · @ 3.22
Edge
+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.42
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Dafabet
3.25
Radnicki 1923 win
24.9%
Avg Implied 47.2% · @ 1.93
Edge
-22.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Betfair
1.95
William Hil
1.95
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Macva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.90
1.57
0.57
0.62
1.19
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.33
1.00
3.00
0.00
3.50
vs Similar (25)
1.08
0.64
1.58
0.42
0.62
0.85
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnicki 1923) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnicki 1923
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.97
1.60
1.20
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.75
0.67
2.33
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.15
0.85
1.83
0.92
0.57
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Macva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (30%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.1%
@ 1.33-20.8%
Under 1.5
51.9%
@ 2.95+20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.25
Marathonbet
3.05
1xBet
3.02
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.2%
@ 2.05-24.1%
Under 2.5
78.8%
@ 1.69+24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.15
Pinnacle
2.15
Betfair
2.10
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Under
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.72
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
7.6%
@ 3.54-18.3%
Under 3.5
92.4%
@ 1.24+18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.81
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Superbet
3.65
Under
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Both teams to score
Yes
30.6%
@ 1.86-18.6%
No
69.4%
@ 1.80+18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Betfair
1.90
Betano
1.83
No
Betfair
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
10Bet
1.83
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
21.8%@ 7.60+16.0%
1-0
17.2%@ 9.60+12.6%
1-1
13.9%@ 6.10+6.6%
0-1
12.8%@ 6.25+5.7%
2-0
8.3%@ 18.12+5.9%
2-1
5.7%@ 12.19+2.0%
0-2
4.8%@ 8.37-0.5%
1-2
4.3%@ 8.03-1.2%
Macva goals ↓
Radnicki 1923 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
22%
13%
4.8%
1.1%
0.2%
1
17%
14%
4.3%
1.0%
0.2%
2
8.3%
5.7%
1.9%
0.4%
0.1%
3
2.5%
1.7%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
4
0.6%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Macva goals (down), columns = Radnicki 1923 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.00
Vojvodina
2.14
IMT Novi Beograd
1.86
Radnicki 1923
1.67
Železničar Pančevo
1.60
Cukaricki
1.43
Mladost Lucani
1.43
Radnik Surdulica
1.33
FK Partizan
1.17
OFK Beograd
1.14
Novi Pazar
1.14
Macva
1.00
Radnicki NIS
0.83
Zemun
0.14
Macva is 0.67 points worse than Radnicki 1923 in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.20
Vojvodina
2.14
Železničar Pančevo
1.80
FK Partizan
1.67
IMT Novi Beograd
1.43
Cukaricki
1.29
Radnicki 1923
1.17
OFK Beograd
1.14
Radnik Surdulica
1.00
Mladost Lucani
1.00
Macva
0.71
Novi Pazar
0.71
Radnicki NIS
0.50
Zemun
0.29
Macva is 0.45 goals worse than Radnicki 1923 in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.20
IMT Novi Beograd
0.57
Vojvodina
0.86
Mladost Lucani
0.86
Radnicki 1923
1.00
Železničar Pančevo
1.00
Radnicki NIS
1.00
Novi Pazar
1.14
Radnik Surdulica
1.50
FK Partizan
1.67
OFK Beograd
1.71
Cukaricki
1.71
Macva
1.86
Zemun
2.00
Macva is 0.86 goals worse than Radnicki 1923 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FK Partizan
63%
FK Crvena Zvezda
61%
Železničar Pančevo
61%
Radnicki 1923
58%
Radnicki NIS
55%
OFK Beograd
54%
IMT Novi Beograd
53%
Vojvodina
52%
Novi Pazar
49%
Radnik Surdulica
48%
Cukaricki
41%
Mladost Lucani
38%
Macva
38%
Zemun
37%
Macva is 20.4 percentage points worse than Radnicki 1923 in terms of average possession (38% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Macva
For 2.4 · Against 5.7 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 13.6 · Total 28.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Radnicki 1923
For 6.4 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 16.0 · Total 30.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Macva
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.1
8.0
8.2
0.8
1.0
0.7
28.9
32.3
26.2
vs Stronger (3)
8.0
7.0
8.5
7.7
12.0
5.5
26.7
31.0
24.5
vs Similar (45)
8.2
8.5
8.0
0.4
0.5
0.3
30.5
33.0
28.0
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
29%
33%
25%
8%
8%
8%
71%
100%
50%
% under line
71%
67%
75%
92%
92%
92%
29%
0%
50%
This opponent (Radnicki 1923) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnicki 1923
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.4
8.6
5.3
5.7
4.8
30.2
30.0
30.4
vs Stronger (8)
9.2
9.0
9.4
5.1
5.3
5.0
27.0
25.0
28.2
vs Similar (42)
8.9
9.4
8.3
5.3
5.7
4.8
30.8
30.7
31.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
49%
54%
43%
76%
77%
75%
96%
96%
96%
% under line
51%
46%
57%
24%
23%
25%
4%
4%
4%
This opponent (Macva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
9.7
Vojvodina
9.4
Mladost Lucani
9.2
FK Partizan
9.2
Radnicki 1923
9.1
Radnik Surdulica
9.0
Cukaricki
9.0
Novi Pazar
9.0
OFK Beograd
8.8
Zemun
8.6
Železničar Pančevo
8.5
Radnicki NIS
8.4
IMT Novi Beograd
8.4
Macva
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Macva
5.9
Zemun
5.9
Radnicki 1923
5.6
Radnik Surdulica
5.3
Radnicki NIS
5.2
OFK Beograd
4.9
Cukaricki
4.8
Vojvodina
4.8
FK Partizan
4.7
Novi Pazar
4.7
Železničar Pančevo
4.5
IMT Novi Beograd
4.5
Mladost Lucani
4.2
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Radnicki 1923
30.4
Radnik Surdulica
30.4
IMT Novi Beograd
29.9
Radnicki NIS
29.3
Macva
28.9
OFK Beograd
28.7
Cukaricki
28.6
Železničar Pančevo
27.8
Vojvodina
26.9
Novi Pazar
26.7
Zemun
26.1
FK Partizan
25.9
Mladost Lucani
25.6
FK Crvena Zvezda
24.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
36.8%
@ 2.17-5.7%
Under 9.5
63.2%
@ 1.60+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.15
Superbet
2.10
Under
Superbet
1.66
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.56
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
82.1%
Under 3.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
94.8%
Under 21.5
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Macva or Draw
75.1%
Avg Implied 52.0% · @ 1.79
Edge
+23.1%
37%
38%
25%
covers Macva + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Macva or Radnicki 1923
62.2%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.27
Edge
-10.9%
37%
38%
25%
covers Macva + Radnicki 1923
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Draw or Radnicki 1923
62.7%
Avg Implied 75.0% · @ 1.24
Edge
-12.3%
37%
38%
25%
covers Draw + Radnicki 1923
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Macva over/under 0.5
Over
59.3%
@ 1.49-2.1%
Under
40.7%
@ 2.38+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Under
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.45
Marathonbet
2.45
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.40
Macva over/under 1.5
Over
22.7%
@ 3.32-5.0%
Under
77.3%
@ 1.27+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.45
10Bet
3.40
1xBet
3.34
Betano
3.25
Under
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Macva over/under 2.5
Over
6.3%
@ 8.53-4.6%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.04+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.80
Bet365
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.10
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Macva over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
@ 18.33-3.9%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
Bet365
17.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Radnicki 1923 over/under 0.5
Over
49.5%
@ 1.21-25.8%
Under
50.5%
@ 3.69+25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Under
1xBet
3.92
Betano
3.85
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Radnicki 1923 over/under 1.5
Over
15.0%
@ 2.07-29.4%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.65+29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
Betano
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Under
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Radnicki 1923 over/under 2.5
Over
3.2%
@ 4.30-18.0%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.16+18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.35
Superbet
4.35
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Radnicki 1923 over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
@ 9.44-9.4%
Under
99.5%
@ 1.04+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Macva, so a minus line means Macva give that many goals of a start and Radnicki 1923 receive them. At -1, Macva must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Macva win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Macva)
Macva -2
3.7%
@ 23.00-0.4%
Draw -2
10.1%
@ 13.00+2.9%
Radnicki 1923 +2
86.2%
@ 1.06-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
23.00
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Away
Bet365
1.06
Handicap -1 (Macva)
Macva -1
13.8%
@ 8.37+3.2%
Draw -1
23.5%
@ 5.23+6.5%
Radnicki 1923 +1
62.7%
@ 1.23-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
8.50
Bet365
8.50
Marathonbet
7.90
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.20
Handicap +1 (Macva)
Macva +1
75.1%
@ 1.77+25.2%
Draw +1
17.6%
@ 3.52-7.6%
Radnicki 1923 -1
7.4%
@ 3.56-17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.45
Away
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Superbet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.42
Handicap +2 (Macva)
Macva +2
92.6%
@ 1.25+21.3%
Draw +2
5.9%
@ 5.42-10.6%
Radnicki 1923 -2
1.5%
@ 7.28-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
5.35
Away
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Marathonbet
6.95
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Macva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.40
0.86
0.21
0.31
0.56
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.28
0.92
0.17
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnicki 1923) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnicki 1923
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.93
0.40
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.42
1.08
0.25
0.36
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Macva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.0%
@ 1.41+2.0%
Under 0.5
33.0%
@ 2.61-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.75
Marathonbet
2.62
Superbet
2.62
10Bet
2.62
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
27.4%
@ 2.90-4.2%
Under 1.5
72.6%
@ 1.34+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.05
Betfair
3.00
Betano
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Under
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
8.5%
@ 6.89-4.8%
Under 2.5
91.5%
@ 1.06+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
7.30
1xBet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Macva over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.5%
@ 2.59-2.3%
Under
66.5%
@ 1.44+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.68
1xBet
2.63
Superbet
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Betano
2.52
Under
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Macva over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.0%
@ 8.96-3.3%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.04+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.50
Superbet
9.40
Marathonbet
9.10
10Bet
9.00
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Macva over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
@ 40.00-99.2%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki 1923 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.8%
@ 1.91-0.6%
Under
52.2%
@ 1.79+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
10Bet
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Under
Superbet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Radnicki 1923 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.6%
@ 5.56-4.0%
Under
87.4%
@ 1.11+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Radnicki 1923 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
@ 15.83-3.4%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Macva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.71
0.36
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.36
0.67
0.25
0.23
0.46
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnicki 1923) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnicki 1923
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.50
0.67
0.80
0.20
0.20
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.33
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.46
0.42
0.75
0.67
0.21
0.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Macva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.4%
@ 1.26-2.7%
Under 0.5
29.6%
@ 3.42+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Under
10Bet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.45
1xBet
3.42
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.1%
@ 2.24-0.2%
Under 1.5
58.9%
@ 1.58+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.38
Superbet
2.30
William Hil
2.30
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Under
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
William Hil
1.55
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.6%
@ 4.86-4.3%
Under 2.5
85.4%
@ 1.14+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
William Hil
5.00
Superbet
5.00
1xBet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.55
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Macva over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.4%
@ 2.14-0.8%
Under
57.6%
@ 1.63+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.23
Superbet
2.20
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.07
Under
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Macva over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.6%
@ 6.84-2.9%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.07+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.60
Superbet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.60
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Macva over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.7%
@ 20.58-3.0%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
25.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Radnicki 1923 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.9%
@ 1.63-8.9%
Under
52.1%
@ 2.14+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.67
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Under
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.17
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.07
Radnicki 1923 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.1%
@ 3.97-3.1%
Under
79.9%
@ 1.20+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
1xBet
3.90
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Radnicki 1923 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.4%
@ 10.17-4.8%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.03+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.9%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+4.9%
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
+9.4%
Under 5.5
99.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
+6.5%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.9%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
Over 19.5 fouls
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
97.7%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+11.2%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
96.8%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
+18.0%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.8%
Over 21.5 fouls
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.7%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
+4.6%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
+3.3%
Over 2.5 cards
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
92.4%
1.24
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+18.3%
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.5%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+4.8%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.4%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
+2.9%
Over 23.5 fouls
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.4%
1.11
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+4.0%
Away +2 handicap
86.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-2.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.4%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
+4.3%
Under 11.5 corners
83.5%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+4.7%
Over 3.5 cards
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.9%
1.20
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
+3.1%
Over 25.5 fouls
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
77.3%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
+5.0%
Under 10.5 corners
74.6%
1.35
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
-
-
+6.7%
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.6%
1.34
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
+4.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
70.4%
1.26
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
-2.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Macva
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Milan Vidakov50%
Đorđe Đorđić17%
Boško Vraštanović0%
Igor Ristivojević0%
Kristijan Tojčić0%
Mitar Ergelaš0%
Luka Pejović0%
Nemanja Stevanović0%
Nikola Lainović0%
Slobodan Sladojević0%
Sani Abdullahi0%
Vladimir Rakić0%
Darko Terzić0%
Vladimir Ilić0%
Kosta Rakonić0%
Nikša Delibašić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Igor Ristivojević50%
Kristijan Tojčić50%
Sani Abdullahi50%
Milan Vidakov33%
Luka Pejović33%
Slobodan Sladojević33%
Nemanja Stevanović25%
Boško Vraštanović20%
Darko Terzić20%
Vladimir Ilić20%
Vladimir Rakić17%
Mitar Ergelaš0%
Nikola Lainović0%
Đorđe Đorđić0%
Kosta Rakonić0%
Nikša Delibašić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nemanja Stevanović25%
Slobodan Sladojević17%
Boško Vraštanović0%
Igor Ristivojević0%
Kristijan Tojčić0%
Milan Vidakov0%
Mitar Ergelaš0%
Luka Pejović0%
Nikola Lainović0%
Sani Abdullahi0%
Vladimir Rakić0%
Darko Terzić0%
Đorđe Đorđić0%
Vladimir Ilić0%
Kosta Rakonić0%
Nikša Delibašić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Milan Vidakov33%
Boško Vraštanović0%
Igor Ristivojević0%
Kristijan Tojčić0%
Mitar Ergelaš0%
Luka Pejović0%
Nemanja Stevanović0%
Nikola Lainović0%
Slobodan Sladojević0%
Sani Abdullahi0%
Vladimir Rakić0%
Darko Terzić0%
Đorđe Đorđić0%
Vladimir Ilić0%
Kosta Rakonić0%
Nikša Delibašić0%
Radnicki 1923
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Uroš Sremčević40%
Issa Bah25%
Slobodan Simović17%
Mohamed Cissé17%
Mićo Kuzmanović0%
Miloš Ristić0%
Nemanja Glavčić0%
Aleksa Marušić0%
Asmir Suljić0%
Bojica Nikčević0%
Ilija Babić0%
Jovan Ilić0%
Semir Alić0%
Luka Lijeskić0%
Nikola Marjanović0%
Jovan Živković0%
Vanja Tomić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nikola Marjanović80%
Ilija Babić50%
Vanja Tomić50%
Nemanja Glavčić40%
Miloš Ristić25%
Jovan Ilić25%
Jovan Živković20%
Slobodan Simović17%
Semir Alić17%
Mićo Kuzmanović0%
Aleksa Marušić0%
Asmir Suljić0%
Issa Bah0%
Bojica Nikčević0%
Mohamed Cissé0%
Luka Lijeskić0%
Uroš Sremčević0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bojica Nikčević33%
Nemanja Glavčić20%
Jovan Živković20%
Ilija Babić17%
Slobodan Simović0%
Mićo Kuzmanović0%
Miloš Ristić0%
Aleksa Marušić0%
Asmir Suljić0%
Issa Bah0%
Mohamed Cissé0%
Jovan Ilić0%
Semir Alić0%
Luka Lijeskić0%
Uroš Sremčević0%
Nikola Marjanović0%
Vanja Tomić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aleksa Marušić33%
Uroš Sremčević20%
Slobodan Simović17%
Mohamed Cissé17%
Mićo Kuzmanović0%
Miloš Ristić0%
Nemanja Glavčić0%
Asmir Suljić0%
Issa Bah0%
Bojica Nikčević0%
Ilija Babić0%
Jovan Ilić0%
Semir Alić0%
Luka Lijeskić0%
Nikola Marjanović0%
Jovan Živković0%
Vanja Tomić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (32)
€115m
FP (30)
€48m
VOJ (29)
€30m
OB (28)
€18m
ŽP (24)
€13m
INB (23)
€12m
RN (26)
€11m
NP (21)
€10m
CUK (23)
€10m
R1 (26)
€9m
RS (26)
€9m
ML (28)
€8m
ZEM (22)
€5m
MAC (19)
€4m
Macva's squad is €5m less valuable than Radnicki 1923's (€4m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€62m
FP (15)
€24m
VOJ (15)
€13m
ŽP (9)
€7m
OB (10)
€6m
RN (11)
€4m
ML (10)
€4m
R1 (10)
€4m
CUK (8)
€4m
INB (8)
€4m
NP (9)
€3m
RS (10)
€3m
ZEM (9)
€2m
MAC (7)
€2m
Macva's attack is €2m less valuable than Radnicki 1923's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (6)
€21m
FP (2)
€11m
VOJ (4)
€7m
OB (8)
€4m
INB (3)
€4m
R1 (6)
€3m
NP (3)
€2m
CUK (5)
€2m
RS (5)
€2m
ZEM (5)
€1m
ML (6)
€1m
ŽP (4)
€1m
RN (3)
€1m
MAC (3)
€1m
Macva's midfield is €2m less valuable than Radnicki 1923's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€33m
FP (13)
€14m
VOJ (10)
€9m
OB (10)
€8m
ŽP (11)
€6m
RN (12)
€5m
NP (9)
€5m
RS (11)
€4m
INB (12)
€4m
CUK (10)
€3m
R1 (10)
€3m
ML (12)
€2m
MAC (9)
€2m
ZEM (8)
€1m
Macva's defence is €1m less valuable than Radnicki 1923's (€2m vs €3m).
Serbia: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FK Crvena Zvezda
Vojvodina
IMT Novi Beograd
Mladost Lucani
Cukaricki
Železničar Pančevo
Radnik Surdulica
Novi Pazar
OFK Beograd
FK Partizan
Radnicki NIS
Zemun