This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.30
1.67
1.33
1.40
1.27
vs Stronger (6)
1.67
1.50
1.67
1.33
1.67
1.67
vs Similar (23)
1.39
1.26
1.67
1.33
1.09
1.18
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Mafra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.0%
Under 1.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
32.5%
Under 2.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
14.4%
Under 3.5
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.5%
No
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.9%
0-0
14.8%
1-0
12.4%
0-1
11.9%
2-0
7.0%
2-1
6.9%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
6.5%
Mafra goals ↓
Penafiel goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
12%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.7%
2.2%
0.5%
2
7.0%
6.9%
3.4%
1.1%
0.3%
3
2.4%
2.4%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mafra goals (down), columns = Penafiel goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tondela
1.88
Alverca
1.85
Vizela
1.82
Benfica B
1.62
Torreense
1.59
União de Leiria
1.53
Chaves
1.50
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Feirense
1.44
Felgueiras 1932
1.35
Academico Viseu
1.32
Penafiel
1.32
Maritimo
1.26
Leixoes
1.21
FC Porto B
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Oliveirense
0.85
Mafra
0.79
Mafra is 0.53 points worse than Penafiel in terms of average points per game (0.79 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alverca
1.71
Tondela
1.71
Benfica B
1.56
Vizela
1.47
Torreense
1.44
União de Leiria
1.44
Penafiel
1.32
Academico Viseu
1.26
Felgueiras 1932
1.26
Maritimo
1.24
Chaves
1.18
Portimonense
1.12
Leixoes
1.09
FC Porto B
1.06
Feirense
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Oliveirense
0.88
Mafra
0.85
Mafra is 0.47 goals worse than Penafiel in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vizela
0.88
Chaves
1.00
Alverca
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
União de Leiria
1.09
Benfica B
1.12
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.21
Torreense
1.24
Leixoes
1.24
Penafiel
1.38
FC Porto B
1.38
Maritimo
1.41
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Portimonense
1.59
Mafra
1.59
Oliveirense
1.88
Mafra is 0.21 goals worse than Penafiel in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
62%
Felgueiras 1932
57%
Chaves
56%
União de Leiria
55%
Benfica B
53%
Oliveirense
51%
Maritimo
51%
FC Porto B
51%
Leixoes
51%
Mafra
50%
Torreense
50%
Feirense
50%
Academico Viseu
48%
Alverca
48%
Penafiel
47%
Tondela
47%
Portimonense
40%
Pacos Ferreira
39%
Mafra is 3.3 percentage points better than Penafiel in terms of average possession (50% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Mafra
For 2.5 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 4.8 · Total 7.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Penafiel
For 5.4 · Against 8.2 · Total 13.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 5.1 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mafra
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.0
9.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
18.0
21.0
15.1
vs Stronger (15)
9.5
12.0
7.0
2.5
2.4
2.6
19.8
22.2
17.8
vs Similar (34)
9.6
9.3
10.2
3.2
3.1
3.4
17.1
20.5
13.8
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
52%
48%
56%
52%
57%
47%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
48%
52%
44%
48%
43%
53%
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.9
10.4
3.5
3.4
3.6
18.2
18.1
18.3
vs Stronger (11)
7.5
8.0
7.0
3.0
3.3
2.6
16.1
15.5
16.8
vs Similar (38)
10.8
10.3
11.2
3.7
3.4
4.1
18.8
18.8
18.8
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
48%
45%
50%
54%
48%
60%
49%
44%
53%
% under line
52%
55%
50%
46%
52%
40%
51%
56%
47%
This opponent (Mafra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torreense
11.2
Oliveirense
11.0
Portimonense
11.0
Tondela
10.7
Chaves
10.5
FC Porto B
10.5
Academico Viseu
10.5
Penafiel
10.4
Pacos Ferreira
10.4
Vizela
10.2
Benfica B
10.2
União de Leiria
10.2
Feirense
9.7
Leixoes
9.5
Mafra
9.4
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Maritimo
9.3
Felgueiras 1932
9.0
Alverca
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Felgueiras 1932
5.7
Oliveirense
5.6
Leixoes
5.4
Maritimo
5.4
Benfica B
5.3
Chaves
5.3
Torreense
5.2
Penafiel
5.2
Tondela
5.1
União de Leiria
5.0
Pacos Ferreira
5.0
Portimonense
4.9
Vizela
4.8
FC Porto B
4.6
Feirense
4.6
Academico Viseu
4.5
Alverca
4.3
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Mafra
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Leixoes
24.9
Tondela
23.3
Feirense
21.6
Pacos Ferreira
21.0
Vizela
20.9
Chaves
20.7
União de Leiria
20.2
Oliveirense
19.8
Portimonense
19.8
Maritimo
19.4
Academico Viseu
19.3
Penafiel
19.2
Torreense
19.0
FC Porto B
18.9
Mafra
18.3
Benfica B
17.6
Felgueiras 1932
7.2
Alverca
7.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.1%
Under 9.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
65.1%
Under 3.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
1.4%
Under 21.5
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mafra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.47
0.29
0.50
0.38
0.44
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.33
0.50
0.25
0.40
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.30
0.55
0.20
0.60
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
1.13
1.07
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
1.00
1.33
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.78
1.17
1.00
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Mafra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mafra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mafra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.97
0.50
0.79
0.38
1.12
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.95
0.60
0.90
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.53
0.27
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.48
0.50
0.33
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Mafra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mafra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 19.5 fouls
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Mafra
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rodrigo Matos33%
Pontus Texel25%
Stanley Iheanacho25%
Rodrigo Freitas0%
Bryan Passi0%
Vítor Gonçalves0%
Guilherme0%
Martin Fraisl0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Diogo Capitão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Friday Etim0%
Beni Junior0%
Yacouba Maiga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Guilherme40%
Rodrigo Freitas33%
Martin Fraisl25%
Stanley Iheanacho25%
Yacouba Maiga25%
Bryan Passi0%
Vítor Gonçalves0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Diogo Capitão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Rodrigo Matos0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Pontus Texel0%
Friday Etim0%
Beni Junior0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Friday Etim33%
Bryan Passi25%
Vítor Gonçalves25%
Rodrigo Freitas0%
Guilherme0%
Martin Fraisl0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Diogo Capitão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Rodrigo Matos0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Pontus Texel0%
Beni Junior0%
Stanley Iheanacho0%
Yacouba Maiga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rodrigo Matos33%
Friday Etim33%
Stanley Iheanacho25%
Guilherme20%
Rodrigo Freitas0%
Bryan Passi0%
Vítor Gonçalves0%
Martin Fraisl0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Diogo Capitão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Pontus Texel0%
Beni Junior0%
Yacouba Maiga0%
Penafiel
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zé Leite40%
Gabriel Barbosa33%
Robinho25%
Maga17%
Diogo Batista17%
Tiago Rodrigues0%
Ewerton0%
Sodiq Fatai0%
Reko0%
Edu Pinheiro0%
João Miguel0%
Rúben Pereira0%
João Silva0%
Manuel Baldé0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Andre Silva0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Helder Suker0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rúben Pereira60%
Tiago Rodrigues57%
Maga33%
Gabriel Barbosa33%
Edu Pinheiro33%
Reko29%
Robinho25%
Sodiq Fatai25%
Manuel Baldé25%
João Silva17%
Andre Silva17%
Ewerton0%
João Miguel0%
Zé Leite0%
Diogo Batista0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Helder Suker0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sodiq Fatai25%
Zé Leite20%
João Silva17%
Helder Suker14%
Tiago Rodrigues0%
Ewerton0%
Robinho0%
Reko0%
Maga0%
Gabriel Barbosa0%
Edu Pinheiro0%
João Miguel0%
Rúben Pereira0%
Diogo Batista0%
Manuel Baldé0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Andre Silva0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Zé Leite20%
Tiago Rodrigues0%
Ewerton0%
Robinho0%
Sodiq Fatai0%
Reko0%
Maga0%
Gabriel Barbosa0%
Edu Pinheiro0%
João Miguel0%
Rúben Pereira0%
João Silva0%
Diogo Batista0%
Manuel Baldé0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Andre Silva0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Helder Suker0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tondela
Alverca
Vizela
Benfica B
Torreense
União de Leiria
Chaves
Feirense
Felgueiras 1932
Academico Viseu
Maritimo
Leixoes
Pacos Ferreira
FC Porto B
Portimonense
Oliveirense
CF Os Belenenses