Malaga’s recent five matches, ending with a loss to Atletico Madrid, leave the team struggling to find rhythm at home, while Deportivo La Coruna, after a draw against Elche, shows steadier form on the road. The model’s most probable outcome is an away win, with a 40 % chance of Deportivo triumphing, a 30 % chance of a draw, and a 30 % chance of a home win. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly scored game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 14.1 % probability. Malaga averages 1.85 goals scored and 1.08 conceded against similar opponents, whereas Deportivo averages 1.33 scored and 0.83 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.6 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1 % with a 2 % edge), Under 5.5 (95.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.3 %), Under 4.5 (89.4 %), Home under 2.5 goals (89.3 % with a 3 % edge), and Away +2 handicap (87.3 % with an 8 % edge).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, the model’s pick for an away win, failed to materialise as the match finished 1-1, a draw that extends both sides’ recent run of draws. The model’s call was wrong, with a 40 % probability for the away victory. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely score of 1-1, which carried a 14.1 % chance. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit with a 99.6 % probability, Under 6.5 hit at 98.6 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 97.1 %, Under 5.5 hit at 95.9 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 95.3 %, Under 4.5 hit at 89.4 %, Home under 2.5 goals hit at 89.3 %, and Away +2 handicap hit at 87.3 %. The match confirmed the model’s heavy lean toward a low-scoring draw.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Malaga win✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied 40.2% · @ 2.38
Edge
-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.60
1xBet
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Marathonbet
2.41
SBO
2.41
Draw✓ Hit
29.5%
Avg Implied 31.1% · @ 3.07
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.25
Bet365
3.20
1xBet
3.15
Superbet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Deportivo La Coruna win✗ Miss
40.1%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.32
Edge
+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.51
1xBet
3.46
888Sport
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Betano
3.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Malaga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.13
1.86
1.07
2.00
1.19
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (29)
2.00
1.10
1.86
1.07
2.13
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Deportivo La Coruna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Deportivo La Coruna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.07
1.24
1.24
1.31
0.85
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.28
1.04
1.40
1.13
1.10
0.90
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.25
0.00
3.00
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.1%
@ 1.42+5.4%
Under 1.5
27.9%
@ 2.85-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.49
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Unibet
1.43
Under
Pinnacle
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
888Sport
2.90
1xBet
2.88
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.1%
@ 2.28+3.4%
Under 2.5
54.9%
@ 1.63-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Unibet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
SBO
2.33
Bet365
2.30
Under
1xBet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.67
Superbet
1.64
SBO
1.63
Betfair
1.62
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.8%
@ 4.12+1.1%
Under 3.5
76.2%
@ 1.21-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Under
Superbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.23
Betano
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.5%
@ 1.91+2.6%
No
48.5%
@ 1.82-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Unibet
1.93
Betano
1.93
10Bet
1.93
No
Betfair
1.91
888Sport
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.1%@ 5.65+6.1%
0-1
10.0%@ 7.96+4.3%
0-0
9.7%@ 7.54+3.7%
1-2
8.6%@ 10.93+4.5%
1-0
8.2%@ 6.41+1.2%
0-2
7.5%@ 14.96+4.5%
2-1
7.3%@ 8.90+2.2%
2-0
5.4%@ 10.33+1.1%
Malaga goals ↓
Deportivo La Coruna goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
10.0%
7.5%
3.4%
1.1%
1
8.2%
14%
8.6%
3.8%
1.3%
2
5.4%
7.3%
4.9%
2.2%
0.7%
3
2.1%
2.8%
1.9%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Malaga goals (down), columns = Deportivo La Coruna goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Malaga is 0.02 points better than Deportivo La Coruna in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Malaga is 0.02 goals better than Deportivo La Coruna in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Malaga is 0.03 goals better than Deportivo La Coruna in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.72).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Malaga
For 4.8 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 11.9 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Deportivo La Coruna
For 5.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 12.6 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Malaga
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.2
9.7
5.1
5.0
5.1
24.8
25.1
24.4
vs Stronger (1)
7.0
-
7.0
5.0
-
5.0
28.0
-
28.0
vs Similar (48)
9.0
8.2
9.8
5.2
5.0
5.3
24.7
25.1
24.3
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
46%
42%
50%
68%
67%
69%
69%
71%
67%
% under line
54%
58%
50%
32%
33%
31%
31%
29%
33%
This opponent (Deportivo La Coruna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Deportivo La Coruna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.5
9.7
4.8
4.4
5.2
23.6
24.9
22.2
vs Stronger (1)
10.0
10.0
-
0.0
0.0
-
18.0
18.0
-
vs Similar (43)
9.2
8.7
9.8
5.1
4.8
5.5
24.4
25.4
23.2
vs Weaker (6)
7.2
5.5
9.0
3.2
2.5
3.5
18.2
23.0
15.0
% over line
42%
31%
55%
72%
65%
79%
69%
77%
61%
% under line
58%
69%
45%
28%
35%
21%
31%
23%
39%
This opponent (Malaga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Barcelona
10.7
Racing Santander
10.6
Alaves
10.5
Real Madrid
10.5
Real Sociedad
10.2
Levante
10.0
Espanyol
9.7
Valencia
9.7
Athletic Club
9.7
Sevilla
9.3
Osasuna
9.1
Villarreal
9.1
Deportivo La Coruna
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Malaga
9.0
Getafe
8.9
Elche
8.2
Celta Vigo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.4
Rayo Vallecano
5.7
Getafe
5.4
Sevilla
5.3
Malaga
5.2
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Real Sociedad
5.0
Alaves
4.9
Osasuna
4.9
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Real Betis
4.8
Levante
4.8
Athletic Club
4.7
Elche
4.7
Celta Vigo
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.2
Alaves
28.9
Elche
27.9
Sevilla
27.6
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
25.9
Rayo Vallecano
25.8
Athletic Club
25.5
Osasuna
25.3
Celta Vigo
24.9
Levante
24.8
Villarreal
24.6
Malaga
24.6
Valencia
24.4
Real Madrid
24.1
Real Betis
23.7
Deportivo La Coruna
23.6
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
47.5%
@ 2.20+5.2%
Under 9.5
52.5%
@ 1.61-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.16
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.62
1xBet
1.59
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
70.8%
@ 1.46+7.0%
Under 3.5
29.2%
@ 2.57-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.53
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.75
Superbet
2.65
Betano
2.57
Unibet
2.30
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
65.8%
@ 1.27-5.8%
Under 21.5
34.2%
@ 3.20+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.27
Under
1xBet
3.20
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Malaga or Draw✓ Hit
59.9%
Avg Implied 70.8% · @ 1.33
Edge
-11.0%
30%
30%
40%
covers Malaga + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
SBO
1.34
Malaga or Deportivo La Coruna✗ Miss
70.5%
Avg Implied 69.5% · @ 1.36
Edge
+1.0%
30%
30%
40%
covers Malaga + Deportivo La Coruna
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Superbet
1.39
Unibet
1.37
888Sport
1.36
Draw or Deportivo La Coruna✓ Hit
69.7%
Avg Implied 59.7% · @ 1.58
Edge
+9.9%
30%
30%
40%
covers Draw + Deportivo La Coruna
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Malaga over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.9%
@ 1.30-3.7%
Under
32.1%
@ 3.28+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.64
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Malaga over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.5%
@ 2.50-6.0%
Under
68.5%
@ 1.50+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.56
Betfair
2.55
Marathonbet
2.54
Bet365
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
Superbet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Malaga over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 5.95-5.0%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.11+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.00
1xBet
6.00
888Sport
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Under
Betano
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Malaga over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 17.05-2.8%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
26.00
888Sport
17.00
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.9%
@ 1.44+9.2%
Under
26.1%
@ 2.63-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.84
888Sport
2.63
BetVictor
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.8%
@ 3.18+9.4%
Under
61.2%
@ 1.32-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.37
Marathonbet
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Under
1xBet
1.36
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.3%
@ 8.55+4.3%
Under
84.7%
@ 1.05-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.20
Betfair
9.00
888Sport
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 21.50+0.3%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.01-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
26.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Malaga, so a minus line means Malaga give that many goals of a start and Deportivo La Coruna receive them. At -1, Malaga must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Malaga win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Malaga)Actual: Deportivo La Coruna
Malaga -2
4.0%
@ 11.22-4.1%
Draw -2
8.8%
@ 6.81-4.5%
Deportivo La Coruna +2
87.3%
@ 1.15+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Superbet
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Superbet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.65
Away
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Handicap -1 (Malaga)Actual: Deportivo La Coruna
Malaga -1
12.7%
@ 4.71-6.3%
Draw -1
17.6%
@ 3.74-6.4%
Deportivo La Coruna +1
69.7%
@ 1.57+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.80
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.55
Draw
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.82
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Away
Marathonbet
1.61
Superbet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Unibet
1.53
Handicap +1 (Malaga)Actual: Malaga
Malaga +1
59.9%
@ 1.32-8.6%
Draw +1
21.0%
@ 4.64+1.6%
Deportivo La Coruna -1
19.1%
@ 7.50+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.70
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Away
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
7.00
Handicap +2 (Malaga)Actual: Malaga
Malaga +2
80.9%
@ 1.06-5.1%
Draw +2
12.2%
@ 9.75+2.8%
Deportivo La Coruna -2
6.9%
@ 19.75+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Away
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
21.00
10Bet
19.00
Unibet
16.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Malaga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
0.79
0.50
0.75
0.31
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.79
0.41
0.79
0.50
0.80
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Deportivo La Coruna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Deportivo La Coruna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.65
0.47
0.46
0.54
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.52
0.73
0.47
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.57
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Under
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.70
Pinnacle
2.62
Superbet
2.60
10Bet
2.45
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Betano
3.45
1xBet
3.36
Marathonbet
3.36
Under
Superbet
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
BetVictor
10.50
Betfair
9.00
William Hil
9.00
Superbet
8.90
Under
William Hil
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Malaga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.22
Unibet
2.18
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Betano
2.15
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.62
Malaga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
Betano
6.50
Superbet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Malaga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.62
Betano
2.55
Marathonbet
2.49
1xBet
2.49
Unibet
2.48
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.20
Marathonbet
9.20
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
8.30
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Unibet
1.02
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
34.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Malaga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.73
1.07
0.57
1.25
0.88
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (29)
1.21
0.69
1.07
0.57
1.33
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Deportivo La Coruna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Deportivo La Coruna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.59
0.76
0.85
0.31
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.52
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.30
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
0.00
2.00
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.33
888Sport
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Under
Marathonbet
3.36
1xBet
3.36
Superbet
3.35
888Sport
3.30
William Hil
3.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.50
1xBet
2.42
Marathonbet
2.42
888Sport
2.40
Under
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Betano
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
5.85
888Sport
5.75
William Hil
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
888Sport
1.14
William Hil
1.14
10Bet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Malaga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.79
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Under
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.88
Malaga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.90
1xBet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.65
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Malaga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.07
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Under
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.4%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
888Sport
1.06
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.3%
1.11
Betano
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.3%
1.15
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.14
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.9%
1.21
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.15
-
-
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
84.7%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
-4.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
80.9%
1.06
Unibet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
-5.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.2%
1.21
Superbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.23
Betano
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.5%
1.20
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.22
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.9%
1.44
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.1%
1.42
SBO
1.49
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Unibet
1.43
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.8%
1.46
Unibet
1.53
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.41
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.5%
1.36
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Superbet
1.39
Unibet
1.37
888Sport
1.36
+1.0%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Malaga
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chupete33%
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Ramón Enríquez0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Carlos Puga0%
Juan Cruz0%
David Larrubia0%
Ángel Recio0%
Rafa Rodriguez0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ramón Enríquez67%
Carlos Puga33%
Juan Cruz33%
David Larrubia33%
Chupete33%
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Ángel Recio0%
Rafa Rodriguez0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Ramón Enríquez0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Carlos Puga0%
Juan Cruz0%
David Larrubia0%
Ángel Recio0%
Rafa Rodriguez0%
Chupete0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafa Rodriguez33%
Chupete33%
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Ramón Enríquez0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Carlos Puga0%
Juan Cruz0%
David Larrubia0%
Ángel Recio0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
Deportivo La Coruna
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang100%
Ximo Navarro0%
Giacomo Quagliata0%
Mario Soriano0%
Adrià Altimira0%
Leo Román0%
Luismi Cruz0%
Lucas Noubi0%
Lorenzo Amatucci0%
Jonathan Asp Jensen0%
Bright Ede0%
Bil Nsongo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ximo Navarro67%
Giacomo Quagliata33%
Mario Soriano33%
Adrià Altimira33%
Lorenzo Amatucci33%
Bil Nsongo33%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang0%
Leo Román0%
Luismi Cruz0%
Lucas Noubi0%
Jonathan Asp Jensen0%
Bright Ede0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mario Soriano33%
Luismi Cruz33%
Lorenzo Amatucci33%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang0%
Ximo Navarro0%
Giacomo Quagliata0%
Adrià Altimira0%
Leo Román0%
Lucas Noubi0%
Jonathan Asp Jensen0%
Bright Ede0%
Bil Nsongo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang67%
Ximo Navarro0%
Giacomo Quagliata0%
Mario Soriano0%
Adrià Altimira0%
Leo Román0%
Luismi Cruz0%
Lucas Noubi0%
Lorenzo Amatucci0%
Jonathan Asp Jensen0%
Bright Ede0%
Bil Nsongo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Malaga's squad is €43m less valuable than Deportivo La Coruna's (€41m vs €84m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Malaga's attack is €24m less valuable than Deportivo La Coruna's (€26m vs €49m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Malaga's midfield is €6m less valuable than Deportivo La Coruna's (€6m vs €13m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Malaga's defence is €13m less valuable than Deportivo La Coruna's (€9m vs €22m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche