Malaga are tipped to edge Levante in a tight La Liga clash, with the model favouring a home win at 44%. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.8% probability that reflects both sides’ balanced attack and defence. Malaga’s home form shows an average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.07 conceded against similar opposition, while Levante’s away numbers are 1.11 for and 1.56 against, indicating a slightly stronger defensive stance at home. The probabilities for the match outcome are 44% for a home win, 29% for a draw, and 27% for an away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Under 6.5 (98.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.6%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.5%), Under 5.5 (95.8%), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.5%). The match should stay low-key, with Malaga’s recent draw and Levante’s recent win setting the stage for a cautious, evenly matched contest.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Malaga win
43.5%
Avg Implied 39.0% · @ 2.42
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.52
10Bet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.48
Dafabet
2.47
Unibet
2.45
Draw
29.1%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.26
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.37
Dafabet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.33
Marathonbet
3.32
Betfair
3.30
Levante win
27.4%
Avg Implied 32.0% · @ 2.96
Edge
-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.12
Betfair
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.06
Betano
3.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Malaga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.23
1.79
1.07
1.81
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (28)
1.93
1.11
1.79
1.07
2.07
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Levante) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Levante
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.43
1.67
1.07
0.80
1.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
2.00
0.33
0.67
0.25
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.62
1.33
2.00
1.17
1.11
1.56
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.5%
@ 1.29-0.0%
Under 1.5
27.5%
@ 3.42+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.67
Betano
3.45
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.6%
@ 1.94-3.5%
Under 2.5
54.4%
@ 1.87+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
SBO
1.97
Betano
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.94
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.89
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.2%
@ 3.27-4.5%
Under 3.5
75.8%
@ 1.32+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.50
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.35
10Bet
3.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.32
Both teams to score
Yes
51.3%
@ 1.70-3.6%
No
48.7%
@ 2.07+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.75
Unibet
1.73
Bet365
1.70
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.69
No
Betfair
2.15
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.07
BetVictor
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%@ 5.92+6.2%
1-0
10.4%@ 7.90+4.7%
0-0
9.5%@ 9.31+4.6%
2-1
8.9%@ 8.77+3.8%
2-0
8.3%@ 11.61+4.4%
0-1
7.6%@ 8.88+2.5%
1-2
6.8%@ 9.84+2.2%
2-2
4.8%@ 12.27+1.1%
Malaga goals ↓
Levante goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
7.6%
4.8%
1.7%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
6.8%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.3%
8.9%
4.8%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.9%
4.2%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Malaga goals (down), columns = Levante goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Malaga is 0.00 points worse than Levante in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Malaga is 0.16 goals worse than Levante in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Malaga is 0.08 goals worse than Levante in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Malaga
For 4.6 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 11.8 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Levante
For 5.1 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 12.1 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Malaga
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.0
9.9
5.1
5.3
5.0
24.9
25.8
24.0
vs Stronger (2)
11.0
-
11.0
3.5
-
3.5
21.5
-
21.5
vs Similar (47)
8.9
8.0
9.8
5.3
5.3
5.3
25.0
25.8
24.3
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
46%
39%
52%
68%
70%
67%
71%
78%
64%
% under line
54%
61%
48%
32%
30%
33%
29%
22%
36%
This opponent (Levante) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Levante
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.0
10.2
4.6
5.0
4.3
24.4
25.3
23.5
vs Stronger (10)
13.0
10.4
15.6
4.3
4.8
3.8
23.5
25.8
21.2
vs Similar (35)
9.3
10.1
8.7
4.7
4.8
4.7
24.7
25.6
23.9
vs Weaker (5)
9.5
8.5
10.5
4.4
7.0
2.7
23.5
22.0
25.0
% over line
51%
57%
46%
62%
70%
56%
67%
74%
62%
% under line
49%
43%
54%
38%
30%
44%
33%
26%
38%
This opponent (Malaga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.3
Levante
10.1
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Osasuna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Getafe
8.7
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Getafe
5.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.6
Sevilla
5.2
Malaga
5.2
Real Sociedad
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Osasuna
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.4
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.7
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
26.1
Rayo Vallecano
25.6
Athletic Club
25.1
Osasuna
25.0
Celta Vigo
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.7
Levante
24.4
Valencia
24.3
Real Madrid
23.6
Deportivo La Coruna
23.4
Real Betis
23.3
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.4%
@ 2.03+2.5%
Under 9.5
51.6%
@ 1.72-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.02
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.3%
Under 3.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
69.7%
Under 21.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Malaga or Draw
72.6%
Avg Implied 67.8% · @ 1.39
Edge
+4.8%
44%
29%
27%
covers Malaga + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
Malaga or Levante
70.9%
Avg Implied 71.2% · @ 1.32
Edge
-0.2%
44%
29%
27%
covers Malaga + Levante
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Draw or Levante
56.5%
Avg Implied 61.1% · @ 1.54
Edge
-4.6%
44%
29%
27%
covers Draw + Levante
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
BetVictor
1.53
Bet365
1.53
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Malaga over/under 0.5
Over
75.8%
@ 1.26+1.7%
Under
24.2%
@ 3.60-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.93
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Betano
3.55
Malaga over/under 1.5
Over
41.5%
@ 2.28+0.3%
Under
58.5%
@ 1.59-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.32
1xBet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.32
10Bet
2.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Malaga over/under 2.5
Over
17.1%
@ 5.12-1.1%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.14+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.20
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Malaga over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
@ 12.11-2.3%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.03+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
12.25
1xBet
12.20
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Levante over/under 0.5
Over
66.0%
@ 1.32-4.5%
Under
34.0%
@ 3.17+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.26
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Levante over/under 1.5
Over
29.4%
@ 2.63-6.2%
Under
70.6%
@ 1.45+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.78
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.63
Marathonbet
2.63
Unibet
2.63
Under
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Levante over/under 2.5
Over
9.6%
@ 6.37-5.1%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.09+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.45
Unibet
6.10
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
BetVictor
1.09
Levante over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
@ 14.88-4.0%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Malaga, so a minus line means Malaga give that many goals of a start and Levante receive them. At -1, Malaga must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Malaga win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Malaga)
Malaga -2
8.2%
@ 10.32-0.4%
Draw -2
13.4%
@ 6.31-0.7%
Levante +2
78.4%
@ 1.15+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
11.00
10Bet
11.00
Unibet
10.50
Marathonbet
6.10
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.55
Away
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Handicap -1 (Malaga)
Malaga -1
21.6%
@ 4.76+2.6%
Draw -1
21.9%
@ 4.02-0.5%
Levante +1
56.5%
@ 1.54-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.85
Betfair
3.75
Away
Marathonbet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.53
Unibet
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Handicap +1 (Malaga)
Malaga +1
72.6%
@ 1.38+7.3%
Draw +1
16.4%
@ 4.46-3.8%
Levante -1
11.0%
@ 6.20-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Unibet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.33
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Away
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
5.95
Unibet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Handicap +2 (Malaga)
Malaga +2
89.0%
@ 1.09+7.2%
Draw +2
7.8%
@ 7.67-3.9%
Levante -2
3.3%
@ 13.53-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Betfair
18.00
Bet365
17.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
13.00
Marathonbet
6.65
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Malaga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.79
0.57
0.75
0.44
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
-
-
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (28)
0.82
0.43
0.79
0.57
0.86
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Levante) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Levante
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.77
0.53
0.67
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.00
0.71
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.81
0.67
0.75
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
-
-
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.8%
@ 1.41+2.3%
Under 0.5
31.2%
@ 2.79-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.90
William Hil
2.88
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
Unibet
2.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
29.5%
@ 2.85-3.4%
Under 1.5
70.5%
@ 1.39+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.04
William Hil
2.90
Betano
2.90
1xBet
2.89
Marathonbet
2.89
Under
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.8%
@ 7.36-1.9%
Under 2.5
89.2%
@ 1.07+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.50
Bet365
8.00
William Hil
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.30
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Malaga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.8%
@ 2.02-5.4%
Under
59.2%
@ 1.73+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Unibet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.76
1xBet
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
Malaga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.0%
@ 6.29-7.7%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.08+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.55
Unibet
6.10
10Bet
6.00
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Malaga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
@ 11.75-6.7%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.02+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Levante over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.3%
@ 2.22+3.4%
Under
54.7%
@ 1.60-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.38
1xBet
2.25
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
Unibet
2.18
Under
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.58
Levante over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.4%
@ 7.32+0.7%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.06-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Levante over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
@ 12.50-4.8%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Malaga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.73
1.00
0.50
1.06
0.94
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
-
-
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (28)
1.11
0.68
1.00
0.50
1.21
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Levante) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Levante
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
1.13
0.40
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.29
0.33
0.33
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.52
1.33
0.42
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.4%
@ 1.23+3.6%
Under 0.5
20.6%
@ 3.85-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.94
1xBet
3.94
Betano
3.90
William Hil
3.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.7%
@ 2.11+3.3%
Under 1.5
52.3%
@ 1.69-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.15
Unibet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Bet365
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Under
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
10Bet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.2%
@ 4.51-2.5%
Under 2.5
81.8%
@ 1.18+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Malaga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.0%
@ 1.70-8.6%
Under
54.0%
@ 2.05+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Under
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.03
Malaga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.1%
@ 4.49-8.6%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.17+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.21
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Malaga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
@ 9.50-7.4%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.04+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Levante over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.4%
@ 1.83+6.5%
Under
42.6%
@ 1.90-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Levante over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.4%
@ 5.10+5.2%
Under
76.6%
@ 1.13-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.30
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Levante over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.6%
@ 10.50-4.4%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.03+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.7%
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.9%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+4.0%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.4%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.8%
Under 5.5
95.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.01
Unibet
1.01
+3.1%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.4%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.4%
Home under 3.5 goals
94.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
+2.3%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
+7.7%
Away under 2.5 goals
90.4%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
BetVictor
1.09
+5.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.07
+1.9%
Under 4.5
89.1%
1.09
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.08
+3.7%
Home +2 handicap
89.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.06
+7.2%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.9%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
-
+8.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.6%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-0.7%
Over 2.5 cards
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.9%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
+1.1%
Over 19.5 fouls
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.8%
1.18
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+2.5%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.4%
1.23
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
+3.6%
Away +2 handicap
78.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+1.1%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.6%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
-
-5.2%
Home over 0.5 goals
75.8%
1.26
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
+1.7%
Under 3.5
75.8%
1.32
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.32
+4.5%
Under 11.5 corners
74.7%
1.23
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
-
-0.0%
Home or Draw
72.6%
1.39
1xBet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
+4.8%
Home +1 handicap
72.6%
1.38
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Unibet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.33
+7.3%
Over 1.5
72.5%
1.29
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
-0.0%
Home or Away
70.9%
1.32
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-0.2%
Away under 1.5 goals
70.6%
1.45
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
+6.2%
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.5%
1.39
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
+3.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Malaga
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chupete33%
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Ramón Enríquez0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Carlos Puga0%
Juan Cruz0%
David Larrubia0%
Ángel Recio0%
Rafa Rodriguez0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ramón Enríquez67%
Carlos Puga33%
Juan Cruz33%
David Larrubia33%
Chupete33%
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Ángel Recio0%
Rafa Rodriguez0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Ramón Enríquez0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Carlos Puga0%
Juan Cruz0%
David Larrubia0%
Ángel Recio0%
Rafa Rodriguez0%
Chupete0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafa Rodriguez33%
Chupete33%
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Ramón Enríquez0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Carlos Puga0%
Juan Cruz0%
David Larrubia0%
Ángel Recio0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
Levante
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adrián de la Fuente33%
Enzo Bardeli33%
Jon Ander Olasagasti33%
Jeremy Toljan0%
Aïssa Mandi0%
Mathew Ryan0%
Víctor García0%
Manuel Sánchez0%
Oriol Rey0%
Iván Romero0%
Etta Eyong0%
Nacho Pérez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jeremy Toljan33%
Iván Romero33%
Adrián de la Fuente0%
Aïssa Mandi0%
Mathew Ryan0%
Víctor García0%
Manuel Sánchez0%
Oriol Rey0%
Enzo Bardeli0%
Jon Ander Olasagasti0%
Etta Eyong0%
Nacho Pérez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Enzo Bardeli33%
Jon Ander Olasagasti33%
Etta Eyong33%
Adrián de la Fuente0%
Jeremy Toljan0%
Aïssa Mandi0%
Mathew Ryan0%
Víctor García0%
Manuel Sánchez0%
Oriol Rey0%
Iván Romero0%
Nacho Pérez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Adrián de la Fuente33%
Iván Romero33%
Jeremy Toljan0%
Aïssa Mandi0%
Mathew Ryan0%
Víctor García0%
Manuel Sánchez0%
Oriol Rey0%
Enzo Bardeli0%
Jon Ander Olasagasti0%
Etta Eyong0%
Nacho Pérez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Malaga's squad is €48m less valuable than Levante's (€41m vs €89m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Malaga's attack is €25m less valuable than Levante's (€26m vs €51m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Malaga's midfield is €10m less valuable than Levante's (€6m vs €16m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Malaga's defence is €12m less valuable than Levante's (€9m vs €22m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche