Malisheva vs Drenica Skënderaj Result & Analysis

Malisheva are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 62 % chance to a home win, 22 % to a draw and 16 % to an away victory. The 62 % probability reflects the team’s strong home form - averaging 2.33 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded against weaker opposition - while Drenica Skënderaj struggle on the road, conceding 1.62 goals on average and scoring just 0.77. The expected total is 3.1 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 23 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.5 % chance.

The suggested picks are: Away under 2.5 HT goals 99.0 %, Under 7.5 98.7 %, Away under 3.5 goals 98.2 %, Under 6.5 96.3 %, Home +2 handicap 94.3 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals 93.4 % (edge 3 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals 93.3 %, and Away under 2.5 goals 92.4 % (edge 2 %). The model’s selections cover all the probabilities requested, with the home win as the most likely outcome.

The match finished 1-1, a draw that stunned the pre-match favourite, the home win, which the model had given a 62 % probability. The prediction was wrong. The final score of 1-1 matched the actual result, confirming the upset. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit, Under 7.5 hit, Away under 3.5 goals hit, Under 6.5 hit, Home +2 handicap hit, Away under 1.5 HT goals hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit, and Away under 2.5 goals hit. Each hit was recorded once, with probabilities expressed as percentages: 99.0 %, 98.7 %, 98.2 %, 96.3 %, 94.3 %, 93.4 %, 93.3 %, and 92.4 %. Both teams entered the game after draws, with Malisheva’s recent form noted as coming off a draw and Drenica Skënderaj likewise.