Malmo FF enter the match after a win, while AIK Stockholm are riding a four-game winning streak, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The model favours an away win, with the probability of a Malmo victory at 36%, a draw at 24%, and an AIK win at 40%. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a lively affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 10.4% chance. Malmo’s home form shows an average of 1.43 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against similar opposition, whereas AIK’s away record boasts 1.77 goals scored and only 1.23 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 97.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.8%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.7%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.6%, Under 6.5 at 93.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 91.0%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 89.6%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Malmo FF win
37.4%
Avg Implied 54.6% · @ 1.71
Edge
-17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.74
Dafabet
1.74
William Hil
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Draw
24.3%
Avg Implied 22.9% · @ 4.06
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.23
Dafabet
4.20
Bet365
4.20
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
AIK Stockholm win
38.3%
Avg Implied 22.5% · @ 4.13
Edge
+15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.50
Dafabet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.20
Betano
4.20
10Bet
4.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Malmo FF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.53
1.79
1.64
1.50
1.44
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.87
1.43
2.00
0.88
1.75
vs Weaker (12)
2.50
1.08
2.50
1.33
2.50
0.83
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (AIK Stockholm) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AIK Stockholm
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.50
1.36
1.71
1.94
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.65
1.35
1.50
1.50
1.77
1.23
vs Weaker (7)
1.71
2.00
1.00
2.25
2.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Malmo FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.9%
@ 1.13+4.9%
Under 1.5
13.1%
@ 5.17-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.50
Pinnacle
5.38
BetVictor
5.25
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.20
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.1%
@ 1.48+4.5%
Under 2.5
32.9%
@ 2.48-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
BetVictor
1.49
Under
10Bet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.57
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.44
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
45.4%
@ 2.23+3.5%
Under 3.5
54.6%
@ 1.61-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.27
Betano
2.25
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Both teams to score
Yes
68.6%
@ 1.49+6.7%
No
31.4%
@ 2.42-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.53
William Hil
1.50
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
No
William Hil
2.45
BetVictor
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Betano
2.40
Marathonbet
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%@ 7.78+4.6%
1-2
8.2%@ 12.62+4.6%
2-1
8.1%@ 7.69+2.3%
2-2
7.0%@ 11.53+3.1%
0-2
4.8%@ 24.29+2.9%
1-3
4.7%@ 27.27+3.1%
2-0
4.7%@ 9.84+0.1%
3-1
4.6%@ 11.21+0.6%
Malmo FF goals ↓
AIK Stockholm goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
4.5%
4.8%
2.8%
1.2%
1
4.5%
10%
8.2%
4.7%
2.1%
2
4.7%
8.1%
7.0%
4.1%
1.8%
3
2.7%
4.6%
4.0%
2.3%
1.0%
4
1.1%
2.0%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Malmo FF goals (down), columns = AIK Stockholm goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sirius
2.21
Hammarby FF
1.89
Djurgardens IF
1.84
AIK Stockholm
1.72
BK Hacken
1.63
IF Elfsborg
1.63
Malmo FF
1.53
Vasteras SK FK
1.53
Gais
1.37
IF Brommapojkarna
1.26
IFK Goteborg
1.21
Mjallby AIF
1.11
Kalmar FF
1.00
Degerfors IF
0.84
Orgryte IS
0.74
Halmstad
0.58
Malmo FF is 0.20 points worse than AIK Stockholm in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.72).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sirius
2.47
Hammarby FF
2.32
Djurgardens IF
2.26
BK Hacken
1.74
Malmo FF
1.74
AIK Stockholm
1.56
Vasteras SK FK
1.47
IF Elfsborg
1.42
IF Brommapojkarna
1.42
Mjallby AIF
1.33
Gais
1.32
IFK Goteborg
1.26
Orgryte IS
1.16
Kalmar FF
1.11
Degerfors IF
0.89
Halmstad
0.68
Malmo FF is 0.18 goals better than AIK Stockholm in terms of goals scored per game (1.74 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gais
0.95
Hammarby FF
0.95
IF Elfsborg
1.00
Djurgardens IF
1.00
Sirius
1.42
AIK Stockholm
1.50
BK Hacken
1.53
Kalmar FF
1.53
Malmo FF
1.58
Mjallby AIF
1.61
IF Brommapojkarna
1.63
Degerfors IF
1.63
Vasteras SK FK
1.74
Halmstad
1.84
IFK Goteborg
2.05
Orgryte IS
2.21
Malmo FF is 0.08 goals worse than AIK Stockholm in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hammarby FF
61%
Djurgardens IF
56%
Malmo FF
56%
Mjallby AIF
53%
BK Hacken
52%
AIK Stockholm
52%
IFK Goteborg
51%
Gais
50%
Sirius
48%
IF Elfsborg
48%
Vasteras SK FK
48%
Kalmar FF
47%
IF Brommapojkarna
47%
Degerfors IF
46%
Orgryte IS
43%
Halmstad
41%
Malmo FF is 4.5 percentage points better than AIK Stockholm in terms of average possession (56% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Malmo FF
For 4.4 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.4 · Against 11.6 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AIK Stockholm
For 3.8 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 12.9 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Malmo FF
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.2
10.6
3.4
3.5
3.3
25.7
25.7
25.7
vs Stronger (4)
10.5
11.5
9.5
2.5
3.0
2.0
22.5
20.0
25.0
vs Similar (28)
9.7
8.9
10.5
4.0
4.1
3.9
26.5
25.7
27.2
vs Weaker (18)
10.0
9.1
11.0
2.6
2.6
2.7
25.2
27.3
22.7
% over line
49%
45%
52%
52%
60%
44%
77%
82%
71%
% under line
51%
55%
48%
48%
40%
56%
23%
18%
29%
This opponent (AIK Stockholm) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AIK Stockholm
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.2
10.3
3.4
3.3
3.5
24.0
23.6
24.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
10.7
11.1
10.4
3.6
3.2
3.9
24.3
23.9
24.7
vs Weaker (11)
8.7
7.6
10.0
3.0
3.8
2.3
22.7
22.6
22.8
% over line
52%
45%
59%
54%
57%
52%
71%
75%
68%
% under line
48%
55%
41%
46%
43%
48%
29%
25%
32%
This opponent (Malmo FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
IFK Goteborg
11.6
Sirius
11.1
Orgryte IS
10.7
BK Hacken
10.7
IF Brommapojkarna
10.7
Gais
10.4
AIK Stockholm
10.4
Degerfors IF
10.3
Djurgardens IF
10.2
Halmstad
10.2
Kalmar FF
10.2
IF Elfsborg
10.0
Vasteras SK FK
9.9
Hammarby FF
9.9
Mjallby AIF
9.8
Malmo FF
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Djurgardens IF
4.4
BK Hacken
4.3
IFK Goteborg
4.2
AIK Stockholm
4.2
Degerfors IF
3.9
Malmo FF
3.8
IF Brommapojkarna
3.7
Mjallby AIF
3.7
Gais
3.7
Vasteras SK FK
3.6
Hammarby FF
3.6
Halmstad
3.5
IF Elfsborg
3.5
Sirius
3.5
Kalmar FF
3.4
Orgryte IS
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Djurgardens IF
25.7
Malmo FF
25.7
IFK Goteborg
25.7
Sirius
25.4
Degerfors IF
25.4
Mjallby AIF
25.1
Vasteras SK FK
25.1
Gais
25.0
IF Brommapojkarna
24.6
BK Hacken
24.4
Hammarby FF
24.4
IF Elfsborg
24.3
AIK Stockholm
24.1
Kalmar FF
23.6
Halmstad
23.3
Orgryte IS
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.1%
@ 1.67-5.5%
Under 9.5
49.9%
@ 2.09+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.53
Under
Unibet
2.28
Betano
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
53.7%
Under 3.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
79.1%
Under 21.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Malmo FF or Draw
61.7%
Avg Implied 77.3% · @ 1.21
Edge
-15.6%
37%
24%
38%
covers Malmo FF + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Malmo FF or AIK Stockholm
75.7%
Avg Implied 77.6% · @ 1.20
Edge
-1.9%
37%
24%
38%
covers Malmo FF + AIK Stockholm
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Draw or AIK Stockholm
62.6%
Avg Implied 45.1% · @ 2.07
Edge
+17.5%
37%
24%
38%
covers Draw + AIK Stockholm
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.15
Betano
2.12
SBO
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Malmo FF over/under 0.5
Over
82.0%
@ 1.10-2.4%
Under
18.0%
@ 5.94+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Under
Bet365
6.50
BetVictor
6.00
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
6.00
1xBet
5.80
Malmo FF over/under 1.5
Over
51.2%
@ 1.56-8.6%
Under
48.8%
@ 2.32+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Under
Pinnacle
2.39
Betfair
2.38
1xBet
2.34
Marathonbet
2.34
Betano
2.32
Malmo FF over/under 2.5
Over
24.7%
@ 2.74-9.2%
Under
75.3%
@ 1.41+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
1xBet
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.75
Under
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Malmo FF over/under 3.5
Over
9.6%
@ 5.53-7.2%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.11+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.55
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Under
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
AIK Stockholm over/under 0.5
Over
82.4%
@ 1.32+12.3%
Under
17.6%
@ 3.10-12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
10Bet
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
AIK Stockholm over/under 1.5
Over
51.9%
@ 2.59+16.0%
Under
48.1%
@ 1.45-16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.71
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
1xBet
2.61
Under
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Unibet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
AIK Stockholm over/under 2.5
Over
25.3%
@ 6.18+10.3%
Under
74.7%
@ 1.10-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.45
10Bet
6.25
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.09
BetVictor
1.09
AIK Stockholm over/under 3.5
Over
9.9%
@ 14.75+3.4%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.02-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Malmo FF, so a minus line means Malmo FF give that many goals of a start and AIK Stockholm receive them. At -1, Malmo FF must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Malmo FF win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Malmo FF)
Malmo FF -2
8.2%
@ 5.21-9.0%
Draw -2
11.4%
@ 4.90-6.9%
AIK Stockholm +2
80.4%
@ 1.39+15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Draw
Marathonbet
5.05
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Away
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Unibet
1.36
Handicap -1 (Malmo FF)
Malmo FF -1
19.6%
@ 2.72-13.1%
Draw -1
17.8%
@ 3.75-6.0%
AIK Stockholm +1
62.6%
@ 2.05+19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Betfair
2.70
Marathonbet
2.67
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.55
Away
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Handicap +1 (Malmo FF)
Malmo FF +1
61.7%
@ 1.22-12.4%
Draw +1
18.0%
@ 5.90+2.7%
AIK Stockholm -1
20.3%
@ 8.47+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.30
Away
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
8.40
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Handicap +2 (Malmo FF)
Malmo FF +2
79.7%
@ 1.06-9.0%
Draw +2
11.7%
@ 13.00+4.5%
AIK Stockholm -2
8.6%
@ 23.00+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Away
Bet365
23.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Malmo FF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.93
0.93
0.93
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.60
1.07
0.57
0.86
0.62
1.25
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.67
1.50
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (AIK Stockholm) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AIK Stockholm
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.43
1.29
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.83
0.50
1.20
0.62
0.54
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
1.29
0.25
1.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Malmo FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.0%
@ 1.23+0.1%
Under 0.5
25.0%
@ 3.69-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.00
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
1xBet
3.64
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.5%
@ 2.18-3.1%
Under 1.5
60.5%
@ 1.62+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
Under
William Hil
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.0%
@ 4.80-5.3%
Under 2.5
86.0%
@ 1.15+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
1xBet
4.80
Betfair
4.80
Under
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Malmo FF over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.0%
@ 1.57-5.0%
Under
46.0%
@ 2.27+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.38
1xBet
2.28
10Bet
2.25
Unibet
2.23
Betano
2.20
Malmo FF over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.0%
@ 3.76-5.5%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.22+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
10Bet
3.75
1xBet
3.60
Under
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Malmo FF over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.1%
@ 9.47-5.7%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.03+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.90
10Bet
9.50
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
AIK Stockholm over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.4%
@ 2.17+2.7%
Under
54.6%
@ 1.61-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.16
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Under
1xBet
1.64
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
AIK Stockholm over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.8%
@ 7.08-0.3%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.06+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
AIK Stockholm over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.7%
@ 12.50-4.8%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Malmo FF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
0.86
0.71
0.88
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.80
0.86
1.14
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (12)
1.42
0.42
1.00
0.33
1.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (AIK Stockholm) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AIK Stockholm
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.57
0.93
0.43
1.25
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.09
0.52
1.00
0.30
1.15
0.69
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.71
0.75
0.75
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Malmo FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.3%
@ 1.14+0.3%
Under 0.5
17.7%
@ 5.18-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.20
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.20
William Hil
4.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.1%
@ 1.72-3.1%
Under 1.5
48.9%
@ 2.04+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Unibet
1.70
Under
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.7%
@ 3.19-4.4%
Under 2.5
75.3%
@ 1.31+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Marathonbet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Betano
3.05
Under
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Malmo FF over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.9%
@ 1.37-9.7%
Under
42.1%
@ 2.87+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Under
10Bet
2.88
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.85
Malmo FF over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.3%
@ 2.74-9.4%
Under
75.7%
@ 1.40+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.80
10Bet
2.75
Betano
2.72
1xBet
2.70
Under
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.37
Malmo FF over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.6%
@ 6.63-8.3%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.08+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
6.80
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
AIK Stockholm over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.3%
@ 1.82+1.4%
Under
47.7%
@ 1.89-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.84
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Under
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.84
AIK Stockholm over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.3%
@ 5.11-0.8%
Under
82.7%
@ 1.13+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.45
1xBet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.80
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
AIK Stockholm over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.7%
@ 12.75-2.7%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.02+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.5%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+0.9%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.8%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+5.7%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.4%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
-
+8.3%
Under 6.5
93.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+1.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
90.4%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
+7.2%
Away under 3.5 goals
90.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-3.4%
Over 19.5 fouls
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.2%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
-
+0.3%
Over 1.5
86.9%
1.13
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
+4.9%
Under 5.5
86.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.10
BetVictor
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
-0.4%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.0%
1.15
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
+5.3%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.7%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
-
+0.8%
Away over 0.5 goals
82.4%
1.32
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
+12.3%
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.3%
1.14
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
+0.3%
Home over 0.5 goals
82.0%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
-2.4%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.0%
1.22
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
-
+5.5%
Under 5.5 cards
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.4%
1.39
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Unibet
1.36
+15.8%
Home +2 handicap
79.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-9.0%
Over 21.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.7%
1.40
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.37
-
+9.4%
Home or Away
75.7%
1.20
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
-1.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.3%
1.31
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
+4.4%
Home under 2.5 goals
75.3%
1.41
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
+9.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.0%
1.23
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+0.1%
Away under 2.5 goals
74.7%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.09
BetVictor
1.09
-10.3%
Over 2.5 cards
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
73.4%
1.23
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
-1.9%
Under 11.5 corners
73.3%
1.45
Unibet
1.53
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+8.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Malmo FF
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Diego García38%
Erik Botheim37%
Pontus Jansson33%
Adrian Skogmar22%
Sead Hakšabanović21%
Taha Ali17%
Kenan Busuladžić13%
Anton Höög11%
Noah Åstrand John10%
Oscar Sjostrand8%
Busanello7%
Andrej Đurić7%
Otto Rosengren6%
Jens Stryger Larsen6%
Robin Olsen0%
Arnór Sigurðsson0%
Johan Dahlin0%
Anders Christiansen0%
Yanis Karabelyov0%
Johan Karlsson0%
Colin Rösler0%
Emmanuel Ekong0%
Daníel Tristan Guðjohnsen0%
Malte Palsson0%
Bleon Kurtulus0%
Jovan Milosavljević0%
Theodor Lundbergh0%
Isaac Assibu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kenan Busuladžić40%
Otto Rosengren35%
Pontus Jansson33%
Andrej Đurić33%
Busanello29%
Bleon Kurtulus25%
Yanis Karabelyov20%
Noah Åstrand John20%
Jens Stryger Larsen17%
Taha Ali17%
Theodor Lundbergh16%
Diego García12%
Malte Palsson12%
Adrian Skogmar11%
Sead Hakšabanović11%
Daníel Tristan Guðjohnsen9%
Robin Olsen8%
Oscar Sjostrand8%
Arnór Sigurðsson0%
Erik Botheim0%
Johan Dahlin0%
Anders Christiansen0%
Johan Karlsson0%
Colin Rösler0%
Emmanuel Ekong0%
Jovan Milosavljević0%
Anton Höög0%
Isaac Assibu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sead Hakšabanović32%
Otto Rosengren18%
Taha Ali17%
Erik Botheim16%
Kenan Busuladžić13%
Jens Stryger Larsen11%
Anton Höög11%
Theodor Lundbergh11%
Colin Rösler10%
Noah Åstrand John10%
Daníel Tristan Guðjohnsen9%
Oscar Sjostrand8%
Robin Olsen0%
Arnór Sigurðsson0%
Johan Dahlin0%
Anders Christiansen0%
Yanis Karabelyov0%
Pontus Jansson0%
Busanello0%
Johan Karlsson0%
Diego García0%
Emmanuel Ekong0%
Andrej Đurić0%
Malte Palsson0%
Adrian Skogmar0%
Bleon Kurtulus0%
Jovan Milosavljević0%
Isaac Assibu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anders Christiansen33%
Erik Botheim21%
Sead Hakšabanović21%
Diego García12%
Otto Rosengren12%
Anton Höög11%
Adrian Skogmar6%
Robin Olsen0%
Arnór Sigurðsson0%
Johan Dahlin0%
Jens Stryger Larsen0%
Yanis Karabelyov0%
Pontus Jansson0%
Busanello0%
Johan Karlsson0%
Colin Rösler0%
Taha Ali0%
Emmanuel Ekong0%
Andrej Đurić0%
Noah Åstrand John0%
Daníel Tristan Guðjohnsen0%
Malte Palsson0%
Kenan Busuladžić0%
Bleon Kurtulus0%
Oscar Sjostrand0%
Jovan Milosavljević0%
Theodor Lundbergh0%
Isaac Assibu0%
AIK Stockholm
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Linus Carlstrand75%
Johan Hove31%
Zadok Yohanna29%
Adrian Helm25%
Sixten Gustafsson25%
Bersant Celina22%
Axel Kouame18%
Victor Andersson14%
Ibrahim Cissé12%
Yannick Geiger12%
Kevin Filling12%
Taha Ayari9%
Áron Csongvai8%
Dino Beširović7%
Sotirios Papagiannopoulos0%
Kristoffer Nordfeldt0%
Mads Døhr Thychosen0%
Herve Matthys0%
Lukas Bergquist0%
Amel Mujanić0%
Erik Flataker0%
Fredrik Nissen0%
Ahmad Faqa0%
Abdihakin Ali0%
Wilmer Olofsson0%
Stanley Wilson0%
Linus Järeteg0%
Charlie Pavey0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Wilmer Olofsson50%
Charlie Pavey40%
Dino Beširović29%
Zadok Yohanna29%
Mads Døhr Thychosen27%
Kristoffer Nordfeldt25%
Johan Hove25%
Ibrahim Cissé25%
Linus Carlstrand25%
Yannick Geiger25%
Bersant Celina22%
Amel Mujanić20%
Stanley Wilson20%
Sotirios Papagiannopoulos18%
Taha Ayari18%
Herve Matthys17%
Áron Csongvai17%
Lukas Bergquist15%
Abdihakin Ali15%
Sixten Gustafsson12%
Kevin Filling12%
Victor Andersson7%
Erik Flataker0%
Fredrik Nissen0%
Ahmad Faqa0%
Adrian Helm0%
Axel Kouame0%
Linus Järeteg0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Zadok Yohanna29%
Adrian Helm25%
Linus Carlstrand25%
Stanley Wilson20%
Kevin Filling18%
Dino Beširović14%
Erik Flataker14%
Bersant Celina11%
Taha Ayari9%
Axel Kouame9%
Áron Csongvai8%
Lukas Bergquist8%
Victor Andersson7%
Johan Hove6%
Sotirios Papagiannopoulos0%
Kristoffer Nordfeldt0%
Mads Døhr Thychosen0%
Herve Matthys0%
Ibrahim Cissé0%
Amel Mujanić0%
Fredrik Nissen0%
Ahmad Faqa0%
Abdihakin Ali0%
Wilmer Olofsson0%
Linus Järeteg0%
Charlie Pavey0%
Yannick Geiger0%
Sixten Gustafsson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Linus Carlstrand75%
Zadok Yohanna57%
Bersant Celina33%
Johan Hove12%
Taha Ayari9%
Kevin Filling6%
Sotirios Papagiannopoulos0%
Kristoffer Nordfeldt0%
Dino Beširović0%
Mads Døhr Thychosen0%
Herve Matthys0%
Ibrahim Cissé0%
Lukas Bergquist0%
Amel Mujanić0%
Áron Csongvai0%
Erik Flataker0%
Fredrik Nissen0%
Ahmad Faqa0%
Abdihakin Ali0%
Adrian Helm0%
Victor Andersson0%
Wilmer Olofsson0%
Axel Kouame0%
Stanley Wilson0%
Linus Järeteg0%
Charlie Pavey0%
Yannick Geiger0%
Sixten Gustafsson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (28)
€35m
HF (22)
€35m
SIR (24)
€28m
DI (22)
€27m
MA (24)
€26m
AS (27)
€21m
IG (25)
€18m
IE (26)
€17m
BH (22)
€16m
GAI (29)
€13m
KF (21)
€10m
VSF (24)
€10m
IB (25)
€9m
HAL (20)
€8m
OI (26)
€8m
DI (23)
€6m
Malmo FF's squad is €14m more valuable than AIK Stockholm's (€35m vs €21m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (10)
€18m
HF (9)
€13m
MF (8)
€12m
IG (9)
€8m
AS (7)
€8m
DI (6)
€8m
MA (9)
€7m
BH (4)
€6m
IE (9)
€5m
GAI (10)
€5m
KF (8)
€4m
HAL (7)
€4m
IB (10)
€3m
VSF (8)
€3m
OI (7)
€2m
DI (5)
€1m
Malmo FF's attack is €4m more valuable than AIK Stockholm's (€12m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DI (6)
€14m
HF (4)
€11m
MF (7)
€11m
MA (6)
€11m
AS (9)
€7m
SIR (5)
€5m
IE (5)
€4m
IG (4)
€3m
GAI (8)
€3m
BH (6)
€3m
VSF (6)
€3m
DI (7)
€3m
KF (5)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
IB (4)
€2m
HAL (4)
€1m
Malmo FF's midfield is €4m more valuable than AIK Stockholm's (€11m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (13)
€12m
HF (9)
€10m
MA (9)
€8m
IE (12)
€7m
BH (12)
€7m
DI (10)
€6m
AS (11)
€6m
IG (12)
€6m
GAI (11)
€5m
OI (12)
€4m
SIR (9)
€4m
IB (11)
€4m
VSF (10)
€4m
KF (8)
€3m
HAL (9)
€3m
DI (11)
€3m
Malmo FF's defence is €6m more valuable than AIK Stockholm's (€12m vs €6m).
Sweden: Allsvenskan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Allsvenskan stats & trends →
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Sirius
Hammarby FF
Djurgardens IF
IF Elfsborg
BK Hacken
Vasteras SK FK
Gais
IF Brommapojkarna
IFK Goteborg
Mjallby AIF
Kalmar FF
Degerfors IF
Orgryte IS
Halmstad