Malmo FF’s recent home form shows a high-scoring side that averages 1.71 goals per match while conceding 2.14, a pattern that suggests a lively encounter. IF Elfsborg, on the road, has struggled offensively, scoring only 0.5 goals on average against similar opposition and conceding 2.1. The model projects a 59 % chance of a home win, 22 % draw and 19 % away win, with the most likely result being a 1-1 draw at 10.1 %. The expected total goals is 3.3, pointing to a match that could see more than three goals, and the most probable total is three at 22 %. The model’s selection list includes Under 5.5 cards at 85.5 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 85.3 %, Over 1.5 goals at 85.0 %, Over 21.5 fouls at 73.2 %, Under 11.5 corners at 72.1 % and Under 4.5 cards at 72.1 %. The home side’s attacking edge is tempered by a defensive frailty, while the away side’s offense remains weak, making a home win the favourite outcome.
Results analysis
Malmo FF finished 1-2 against IF Elfsborg (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 59% home win, 22% draw and 19% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (85%), Over 1.5 (85%), Over 21.5 fouls (73%), Under 11.5 corners (72%). Missed: Under 5.5 cards (86%), Under 4.5 cards (72%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Malmo FF win✗ Miss
58.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
IF Elfsborg win✓ Hit
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Malmo FF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.73
2.00
1.57
1.19
1.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.80
0.50
1.00
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (15)
1.27
2.33
1.71
2.14
0.88
2.50
vs Weaker (10)
2.50
0.80
3.00
1.00
2.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IF Elfsborg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.57
1.69
1.44
0.71
1.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.09
1.73
1.58
1.42
0.50
2.10
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
1.12
2.00
1.50
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Malmo FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.0%
Under 2.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.9%
Under 3.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.4%
No
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.5%
1-0
7.0%
3-1
7.0%
3-0
6.0%
2-2
5.7%
1-2 ✓
5.3%
Malmo FF goals ↓
IF Elfsborg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
3.4%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
1
7.0%
10%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
2
8.5%
9.8%
5.7%
2.2%
0.6%
3
6.0%
7.0%
4.0%
1.6%
0.5%
4
3.2%
3.7%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Malmo FF goals (down), columns = IF Elfsborg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sirius
2.33
Hammarby FF
2.00
BK Hacken
1.72
Djurgardens IF
1.71
AIK Stockholm
1.65
IF Elfsborg
1.56
Malmo FF
1.44
Vasteras SK FK
1.44
IF Brommapojkarna
1.33
Gais
1.28
Mjallby AIF
1.25
IFK Goteborg
1.11
Kalmar FF
1.06
Degerfors IF
0.89
Orgryte IS
0.78
Halmstad
0.44
Malmo FF is 0.11 points worse than IF Elfsborg in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.56).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sirius
2.61
Hammarby FF
2.33
Djurgardens IF
2.18
BK Hacken
1.78
Malmo FF
1.78
Mjallby AIF
1.50
IF Brommapojkarna
1.50
AIK Stockholm
1.47
IF Elfsborg
1.39
Vasteras SK FK
1.39
IFK Goteborg
1.28
Orgryte IS
1.22
Kalmar FF
1.17
Gais
1.17
Degerfors IF
0.94
Halmstad
0.67
Malmo FF is 0.39 goals better than IF Elfsborg in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hammarby FF
0.83
Gais
1.00
IF Elfsborg
1.06
Djurgardens IF
1.12
Mjallby AIF
1.44
BK Hacken
1.44
Sirius
1.44
AIK Stockholm
1.47
IF Brommapojkarna
1.50
Kalmar FF
1.56
Degerfors IF
1.61
Malmo FF
1.67
Vasteras SK FK
1.78
Halmstad
1.94
IFK Goteborg
2.17
Orgryte IS
2.28
Malmo FF is 0.61 goals worse than IF Elfsborg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hammarby FF
61%
Malmo FF
57%
Djurgardens IF
56%
Mjallby AIF
54%
AIK Stockholm
52%
BK Hacken
52%
IFK Goteborg
51%
Gais
50%
Sirius
48%
Vasteras SK FK
47%
IF Elfsborg
47%
IF Brommapojkarna
47%
Kalmar FF
47%
Degerfors IF
46%
Orgryte IS
43%
Halmstad
41%
Malmo FF is 9.6 percentage points better than IF Elfsborg in terms of average possession (57% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Malmo FF
For 4.5 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 12.0 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
IF Elfsborg
For 4.2 · Against 4.7 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 10.2 · Total 19.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Malmo FF
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.2
10.3
3.0
3.2
2.8
24.7
25.5
23.9
vs Stronger (7)
8.4
10.0
7.2
2.9
3.0
2.8
22.6
21.0
23.8
vs Similar (25)
10.1
8.8
11.5
3.5
4.0
3.0
26.2
26.2
26.3
vs Weaker (18)
9.9
9.3
10.4
2.3
2.1
2.4
23.3
26.5
20.6
% over line
46%
50%
43%
44%
54%
35%
68%
80%
57%
% under line
54%
50%
57%
56%
46%
65%
32%
20%
43%
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IF Elfsborg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.8
10.4
3.1
3.0
3.2
24.3
22.7
26.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
10.2
9.8
10.7
3.2
3.1
3.3
24.1
22.5
26.3
vs Weaker (11)
9.4
9.3
9.5
2.9
2.5
3.1
24.9
24.3
25.2
% over line
57%
57%
57%
40%
42%
38%
77%
65%
90%
% under line
43%
43%
43%
60%
58%
62%
23%
35%
10%
This opponent (Malmo FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
IFK Goteborg
11.4
Sirius
11.1
Orgryte IS
10.9
AIK Stockholm
10.8
IF Brommapojkarna
10.7
Djurgardens IF
10.6
BK Hacken
10.6
Vasteras SK FK
10.5
Mjallby AIF
10.2
Gais
10.2
Malmo FF
10.2
Degerfors IF
10.2
Kalmar FF
10.0
Hammarby FF
10.0
IF Elfsborg
10.0
Halmstad
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Djurgardens IF
4.6
BK Hacken
4.4
IFK Goteborg
4.4
AIK Stockholm
4.2
Degerfors IF
3.8
Mjallby AIF
3.8
Gais
3.8
Hammarby FF
3.6
IF Brommapojkarna
3.6
Malmo FF
3.6
IF Elfsborg
3.5
Vasteras SK FK
3.5
Halmstad
3.4
Kalmar FF
3.4
Sirius
3.3
Orgryte IS
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
IFK Goteborg
26.6
Djurgardens IF
25.9
Mjallby AIF
25.5
Sirius
25.3
Hammarby FF
25.0
Gais
24.8
Malmo FF
24.8
Degerfors IF
24.7
Vasteras SK FK
24.5
BK Hacken
24.2
AIK Stockholm
24.1
IF Brommapojkarna
24.1
Halmstad
23.9
IF Elfsborg
23.8
Kalmar FF
23.4
Orgryte IS
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
51.4%
Under 9.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.8%
Under 3.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
73.2%
Under 21.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Malmo FF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.07
1.00
0.93
0.69
1.19
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (15)
0.67
1.33
0.57
1.14
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.60
1.80
0.80
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IF Elfsborg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.63
0.44
0.69
0.21
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.32
0.68
0.42
0.67
0.20
0.70
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Malmo FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Malmo FF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malmo FF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malmo FF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IF Elfsborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IF Elfsborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IF Elfsborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Malmo FF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
1.00
0.64
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.60
0.00
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (15)
0.60
1.00
1.14
1.00
0.12
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.20
1.20
0.20
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IF Elfsborg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.93
1.25
0.75
0.50
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.77
1.05
1.17
0.75
0.30
1.40
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.62
1.50
0.75
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Malmo FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Malmo FF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malmo FF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malmo FF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IF Elfsborg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IF Elfsborg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IF Elfsborg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (24)
€30m
DI (22)
€27m
SIR (23)
€27m
MA (24)
€26m
AS (25)
€20m
IE (26)
€17m
IG (22)
€16m
BH (22)
€16m
GAI (29)
€13m
KF (20)
€10m
VSF (24)
€10m
OI (26)
€8m
IB (24)
€8m
HAL (19)
€8m
DI (23)
€6m
Malmo FF's squad is €13m more valuable than IF Elfsborg's (€30m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (10)
€18m
MF (6)
€9m
AS (7)
€8m
IG (8)
€8m
DI (6)
€8m
MA (9)
€7m
BH (4)
€6m
IE (9)
€5m
GAI (10)
€5m
KF (8)
€4m
HAL (7)
€4m
IB (10)
€3m
VSF (8)
€3m
OI (7)
€2m
DI (5)
€1m
Malmo FF's attack is €4m more valuable than IF Elfsborg's (€9m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DI (6)
€14m
MA (6)
€11m
MF (5)
€8m
AS (9)
€7m
SIR (5)
€5m
IE (5)
€4m
IG (4)
€3m
GAI (8)
€3m
BH (6)
€3m
VSF (6)
€3m
DI (7)
€3m
KF (4)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
HAL (3)
€1m
IB (3)
€1m
Malmo FF's midfield is €4m more valuable than IF Elfsborg's (€8m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (13)
€12m
MA (9)
€8m
IE (12)
€7m
BH (12)
€7m
DI (10)
€6m
GAI (11)
€5m
IG (10)
€5m
AS (9)
€5m
OI (12)
€4m
IB (11)
€4m
SIR (8)
€4m
VSF (10)
€4m
KF (8)
€3m
HAL (9)
€3m
DI (11)
€3m
Malmo FF's defence is €5m more valuable than IF Elfsborg's (€12m vs €7m).
Sweden: Allsvenskan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Allsvenskan stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sirius
Hammarby FF
BK Hacken
Djurgardens IF
AIK Stockholm
Vasteras SK FK
IF Brommapojkarna
Gais
Mjallby AIF
IFK Goteborg
Kalmar FF
Degerfors IF
Orgryte IS
Halmstad