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Manchester City vs Aston Villa Result & Analysis

Date: 24/05/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 1-2
Manchester City
Manchester City
Vs
66%
21%
14%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
England: Premier League
Referee: A Madley
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Manchester City a 66% win probability against Aston Villa in the England: Premier League on 2026-05-24, with 21% for the draw and 14% for Aston Villa. The model estimates around 3.1 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (22%) and 2-0 the most likely scoreline (10.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 25.5 fouls (90%), Under 5.5 cards (83%), Over 1.5 (83%), Under 23.5 fouls (80%).

Results analysis

Manchester City finished 1-2 against Aston Villa (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 66% home win, 21% draw and 14% away win. Picks that landed: Under 25.5 fouls (90%), Under 5.5 cards (83%), Over 1.5 (83%), Under 23.5 fouls (80%), Over 8.5 corners (71%). Missed: Over 2.5 cards (72%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Manchester City win✗ Miss
65.5%
Avg Implied 67.7% · @ 1.39
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.9%
Avg Implied 18.3% · @ 5.15
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa win✓ Hit
13.6%
Avg Implied 14.0% · @ 6.71
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Manchester CityManchester City

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L11D12L30W21W10W33D30W30W11DA·REA11/03A·WES14/03H·REA17/03A·CHE12/04H·ARS19/04A·BUR22/04A·EVE04/05H·BRE09/05H·CRY13/05A·BOU19/05
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.072.210.711.691.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)1.401.601.501.501.331.67
vs Weaker (25)2.040.962.330.581.771.31
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aston VillaAston Villa

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D40W43W01L01L12L40W22D42W30WA·NOT12/04H·BOL16/04H·SUN19/04A·FUL25/04A·NOT30/04H·TOT03/05H·NOT07/05A·BUR10/05H·LIV15/05A·SC 20/05
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.172.131.201.201.13
vs Stronger (2)2.503.004.002.001.004.00
vs Similar (15)1.531.271.671.561.330.83
vs Weaker (13)1.690.772.600.401.121.00
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%317%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.6%
Under 1.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.1%
@ 1.38-8.2%
Under 2.5
39.9%
@ 2.97+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.8%
Under 3.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.3%
No
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.7%
1-1
9.9%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
8.9%
3-0
7.8%
3-1
7.2%
0-0
5.4%
2-2
4.5%
Manchester City goals ↓
Aston Villa goals →
01234
05.4%3.2%1.9%0.6%0.1%
18.9%9.9%4.1%1.3%0.3%
211%9.8%4.5%1.4%0.3%
37.8%7.2%3.3%1.0%0.2%
44.3%3.9%1.8%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Manchester City goals (down), columns = Aston Villa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Newcastle
1.29
Everton
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
West Ham
1.03
Burnley
0.58
Wolves
0.53
Manchester City is 0.34 points better than Aston Villa in terms of average points per game (2.05 vs 1.71).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Tottenham
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
West Ham
1.21
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Burnley
1.00
Wolves
0.71
Manchester City is 0.55 goals better than Aston Villa in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 1.47).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Manchester United
1.32
Everton
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
West Ham
1.71
Wolves
1.79
Burnley
1.97
Manchester City is 0.37 goals better than Aston Villa in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.29).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
West Ham
42%
Burnley
42%
Manchester City is 7.1 percentage points better than Aston Villa in terms of average possession (60% vs 53%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Manchester CityManchester City

For 9.9 · Against 3.8 · Total 13.7

🚩 Corners

160679410295113851249615110113131214141316151611A·BOUH·CRYH·BREA·EVEA·BURH·ARSA·CHEH·REAA·WESA·REA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.7

🟨 Cards

6024242142213222226265044442A·BOUH·CRYH·BREA·EVEA·BURH·ARSA·CHEH·REAA·WESA·REA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 11.6 · Total 20.1

⚠️ Fouls

2407161078145151210512141067514131123172220221724131924A·BOUH·CRYH·BREA·EVEA·BURH·ARSA·CHEH·REAA·WESA·REA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Aston VillaAston Villa

For 5.4 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.5

🚩 Corners

13081498263557552454237913109101279610A·SC H·LIVA·BURH·NOTH·TOTA·NOTA·FULH·SUNH·BOLA·NOT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.3

🟨 Cards

70313111225122131224422714414A·SC H·LIVA·BURH·NOTH·TOTA·NOTA·FULH·SUNH·BOLA·NOT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.7

⚠️ Fouls

300151512981813121212117121411111317101530212625241826223025A·SC H·LIVA·BURH·NOTH·TOTA·NOTA·FULH·SUNH·BOLA·NOT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Manchester CityManchester City

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.010.29.93.83.83.820.720.021.4
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (7)11.614.09.84.64.74.523.419.726.2
vs Weaker (43)9.89.610.03.73.73.620.320.120.5
% over line56%58%54%60%62%58%42%42%42%
% under line44%42%46%40%38%42%58%58%58%
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aston VillaAston Villa

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.59.79.33.83.54.224.023.824.3
vs Stronger (5)8.210.05.54.23.75.022.821.025.5
vs Similar (22)10.29.910.54.23.74.622.623.022.2
vs Weaker (23)9.19.58.83.43.23.625.725.326.1
% over line58%64%52%56%52%60%70%68%72%
% under line42%36%48%44%48%40%30%32%28%
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.2
Bournemouth
10.6
Fulham
10.4
Liverpool
10.4
West Ham
10.3
Brentford
10.1
Manchester City
10.0
Nottingham Forest
9.9
Chelsea
9.9
Tottenham
9.9
Manchester United
9.8
Everton
9.7
Brighton
9.6
Aston Villa
9.5
Burnley
9.4
Leeds
9.3
Wolves
9.3
Crystal Palace
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Sunderland
8.9

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Chelsea
4.6
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Manchester United
4.3
Brighton
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Newcastle
4.0
Brentford
3.9
Crystal Palace
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Manchester City
3.8
Wolves
3.8
West Ham
3.7
Fulham
3.6
Everton
3.6
Liverpool
3.4
Nottingham Forest
3.4
Leeds
3.3
Arsenal
3.2
Burnley
3.2

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Aston Villa
24.0
Wolves
24.0
Nottingham Forest
23.5
Bournemouth
23.4
Chelsea
23.2
Tottenham
22.6
Sunderland
22.3
West Ham
22.0
Manchester United
21.9
Brighton
21.9
Arsenal
21.8
Newcastle
21.7
Everton
21.4
Leeds
21.3
Crystal Palace
20.9
Manchester City
20.7
Liverpool
20.7
Burnley
20.6
Fulham
20.6
Brentford
19.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.8%
Under 9.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.1%
Under 3.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
34.0%
Under 21.5
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

No half-time data for this fixture yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Manchester City over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 25.5 fouls89.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards82.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.582.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls80.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards71.8%-------✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners70.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (26)
€1280m
MC (27)
€1243m
CHE (29)
€1114m
LIV (28)
€940m
MU (29)
€764m
TOT (32)
€713m
NEW (29)
€696m
BOU (31)
€658m
NFO (32)
€621m
BHA (32)
€592m
AVL (28)
€583m
CRY (30)
€553m
BRE (29)
€482m
WHU (34)
€449m
EVE (26)
€443m
SUN (31)
€415m
LEE (28)
€373m
FUL (25)
€356m
WOL (29)
€311m
BUR (33)
€233m
Manchester City's squad is €660m more valuable than Aston Villa's (€1243m vs €583m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (11)
€555m
MC (7)
€542m
LIV (8)
€490m
CHE (8)
€418m
MU (10)
€362m
BOU (12)
€353m
NFO (12)
€301m
AVL (11)
€270m
CRY (12)
€255m
TOT (11)
€250m
NEW (8)
€249m
BRE (9)
€208m
EVE (8)
€194m
BHA (11)
€191m
FUL (11)
€188m
WHU (12)
€174m
SUN (13)
€168m
LEE (10)
€142m
BUR (14)
€100m
WOL (10)
€86m
Manchester City's attack is €272m more valuable than Aston Villa's (€542m vs €270m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (5)
€267m
NEW (6)
€249m
ARS (4)
€225m
LIV (6)
€201m
TOT (7)
€177m
BHA (8)
€176m
AVL (7)
€168m
MC (6)
€166m
EVE (7)
€126m
NFO (4)
€117m
WHU (8)
€112m
WOL (5)
€111m
SUN (5)
€108m
BOU (5)
€106m
MU (4)
€102m
LEE (6)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
BRE (7)
€89m
BUR (5)
€48m
FUL (4)
€38m
Manchester City's midfield is €2m less valuable than Aston Villa's (€166m vs €168m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (14)
€535m
ARS (11)
€500m
CHE (16)
€430m
MU (15)
€300m
TOT (14)
€286m
LIV (14)
€248m
BHA (13)
€225m
CRY (13)
€205m
NFO (16)
€203m
BOU (14)
€199m
NEW (15)
€198m
BRE (13)
€186m
WHU (14)
€164m
AVL (10)
€146m
SUN (13)
€140m
LEE (12)
€134m
FUL (10)
€131m
EVE (11)
€123m
WOL (14)
€115m
BUR (14)
€85m
Manchester City's defence is €390m more valuable than Aston Villa's (€535m vs €146m).

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Manchester City vs Aston Villa · H/A from MC
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/25AAston Villa Vs MC1-0
22/04/25HMC Vs Aston Villa2-1
21/12/24AAston Villa Vs MC2-1
03/04/24HMC Vs Aston Villa4-1
06/12/23AAston Villa Vs MC1-0
12/02/23HMC Vs Aston Villa3-1
03/09/22AAston Villa Vs MC1-1
22/05/22HMC Vs Aston Villa3-2

Manchester CityManchester City

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/05/26ABournemouth Vs MC1-1
13/05/26HMC Vs Crystal Palace3-0
09/05/26HMC Vs Brentford3-0
04/05/26AEverton Vs MC3-3
22/04/26ABurnley Vs MC0-1
19/04/26HMC Vs Arsenal2-1
12/04/26AChelsea Vs MC0-3
17/03/26HMC Vs Real Madrid1-2
14/03/26AWest Ham Vs MC1-1
11/03/26AReal Madrid Vs MC3-0

Aston VillaAston Villa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/05/26ASC Freiburg Vs AVL0-3
15/05/26HAVL Vs Liverpool4-2
10/05/26ABurnley Vs AVL2-2
07/05/26HAVL Vs Nottingham Forest4-0
03/05/26HAVL Vs Tottenham1-2
30/04/26ANottingham Forest Vs AVL1-0
25/04/26AFulham Vs AVL1-0
19/04/26HAVL Vs Sunderland4-3
16/04/26HAVL Vs Bologna4-0
12/04/26ANottingham Forest Vs AVL1-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Manchester City
Manchester City
England: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWD2.02
HomeDLWWW2.38
AwayDWWDD1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%75%46%
AVG goals2.903.082.73
Over 1.5 %88%100%77%
Over 2.5 %60%67%54%
Over 3.5 %24%25%23%
Scored1.942.331.58
Conceded0.960.751.15
BTTS48%46%50%
Clean Sheet42%46%38%
Corners10.0410.179.92
Cards3.803.833.77
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
England: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWW2.00
HomeWWLWW2.32
AwayDLLDW1.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%76%48%
AVG goals2.803.002.60
Over 1.5 %76%76%76%
Over 2.5 %54%60%48%
Over 3.5 %30%36%24%
Scored1.702.001.40
Conceded1.101.001.20
BTTS52%48%56%
Clean Sheet34%40%28%
Corners9.509.729.28
Cards3.823.484.16

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ArsenalArsenal3885
68%
2.2
7127+44
2.6
71%
53%
24%
9.1
42%
3.2
47%
21.3
47%
1280
5552255001.90.7
56%
2Manchester CityManchester City3878
61%
2.1
7735+42
2.9
87%
63%
21%
10.3
58%
3.9
63%
20.9
42%
1243
5421665352.00.9
60%
3Manchester UnitedManchester United3871
53%
1.9
6950+19
3.1
84%
63%
37%
9.7
53%
3.8
58%
21.2
47%
764
3621023001.81.3
52%
4Aston VillaAston Villa3865
50%
1.7
5649+7
2.8
74%
53%
29%
10.2
68%
3.9
61%
23.0
63%
583
2701681461.51.3
53%
5LiverpoolLiverpool3860
45%
1.6
6353+10
3.1
84%
61%
29%
10.5
55%
3.6
50%
20.7
37%
940
4902012481.71.4
59%
6BournemouthBournemouth3857
34%
1.5
5854+4
2.9
76%
55%
42%
10.9
63%
4.3
63%
22.5
53%
658
3531061991.51.4
50%
7SunderlandSunderland3854
37%
1.4
4248-6
2.4
71%
45%
18%
9.0
45%
4.1
55%
22.1
58%
415
1681081401.11.3
45%
8BrightonBrighton3853
37%
1.4
5246+6
2.6
82%
50%
18%
9.7
58%
4.3
63%
22.0
55%
592
1911762251.41.2
53%
9BrentfordBrentford3853
37%
1.4
5552+3
2.8
82%
53%
37%
10.2
63%
3.7
53%
19.6
34%
482
208891861.41.4
47%
10ChelseaChelsea3852
37%
1.4
5852+6
2.9
87%
66%
32%
10.4
68%
4.7
71%
23.4
68%
1114
4182674301.51.4
57%
11FulhamFulham3852
39%
1.4
4751-4
2.6
71%
50%
24%
10.5
66%
3.8
58%
20.8
39%
356
188381311.21.3
51%
12NewcastleNewcastle3849
37%
1.3
5355-2
2.8
76%
63%
34%
11.0
61%
4.2
61%
22.1
53%
696
2492491981.41.4
52%
13EvertonEverton3849
34%
1.3
4750-3
2.6
76%
45%
21%
9.4
42%
3.7
47%
21.7
58%
443
1941261231.21.3
44%
14LeedsLeeds3847
29%
1.2
4956-7
2.8
74%
55%
37%
9.5
53%
3.4
42%
21.7
47%
373
142981341.31.5
46%
15Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace3845
29%
1.2
4151-10
2.4
71%
55%
21%
9.4
47%
3.7
63%
20.2
37%
553
255932051.11.3
45%
16Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest3844
29%
1.2
4851-3
2.6
82%
53%
26%
10.1
58%
3.3
42%
22.2
53%
621
3011172031.31.3
46%
17TottenhamTottenham3841
26%
1.1
4857-9
2.8
82%
63%
26%
10.2
50%
4.7
71%
22.3
58%
713
2501772861.31.5
50%
18West HamWest Ham3839
26%
1.0
4665-19
2.9
87%
61%
29%
11.0
66%
3.8
55%
21.7
47%
449
1741121641.21.7
42%
19BurnleyBurnley3822
11%
0.6
3875-37
3.0
84%
50%
39%
9.6
53%
2.9
39%
19.5
37%
233
10048851.02.0
42%
20WolvesWolves3820
8%
0.5
2768-41
2.5
79%
45%
24%
9.4
58%
3.8
58%
23.8
66%
311
861111150.71.8
-
England: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →

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