Manchester City are the clear favourites, the model giving them a 76% chance to win, 16% for a draw and 8% for Coventry to upset them. The prediction favours a 2-0 win for the hosts, the most likely scoreline at 12.2% probability, and the average goal total is 3.3, with a 22% chance that exactly three goals will be scored. City’s home form against weaker opposition shows they average 2.25 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded, while Coventry’s away form against stronger teams sees them not scoring at all and conceding three on average. The model’s selections include: Away under 2.5 HT goals99.4%, Away under 3.5 goals99.3% (edge 2%), Away under 2.5 2H goals98.8% (edge 6%), Under 7.598.0% (edge 4%), Home +2 handicap97.8%, Away under 2.5 goals96.2% (edge 4%), Away under 1.5 HT goals95.6% (edge 5%), and Under 6.594.9% (edge 6%). The home side’s recent win over Bournemouth and Coventry’s recent win over Plymouth give both teams a positive start, but City’s dominance at home and Coventry’s struggle away keep the match firmly in City’s favour.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Manchester City win
75.4%
Avg Implied 81.1% · @ 1.17
Edge
-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.21
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Dafabet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Draw
16.5%
Avg Implied 12.1% · @ 7.87
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
8.50
Betfair
8.50
Pinnacle
8.43
1xBet
8.30
Marathonbet
8.20
Coventry win
8.1%
Avg Implied 6.8% · @ 13.94
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
16.00
Betfair
16.00
1xBet
15.00
BetVictor
15.00
Marathonbet
14.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Manchester City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.97
2.27
0.73
1.67
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.88
0.88
2.33
1.00
1.60
0.80
vs Weaker (22)
2.00
1.00
2.25
0.67
1.70
1.40
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Coventry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Coventry
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.00
1.73
0.87
1.60
1.13
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.67
0.89
1.44
1.00
1.89
0.78
vs Weaker (11)
1.82
1.00
2.17
0.67
1.40
1.40
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.4%
@ 1.08-2.2%
Under 1.5
15.6%
@ 6.96+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Under
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.50
BetVictor
7.50
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.3%
@ 1.34-6.9%
Under 2.5
36.7%
@ 3.14+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.24
Betano
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.1%
@ 1.90-8.9%
Under 3.5
58.9%
@ 1.91+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Under
1xBet
1.97
SBO
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Unibet
1.93
Betano
1.91
Both teams to score
Yes
48.8%
@ 1.91-0.0%
No
51.2%
@ 1.82+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.95
Unibet
1.94
Betano
1.93
10Bet
1.91
1xBet
1.90
No
Betfair
1.87
William Hil
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.2%@ 7.21+5.8%
3-0
10.3%@ 7.32+4.0%
2-1
9.0%@ 9.57+4.2%
1-0
9.0%@ 10.01+4.4%
1-1
7.9%@ 13.87+4.6%
3-1
7.6%@ 9.76+2.9%
4-0
6.5%@ 9.60+1.7%
4-1
4.8%@ 12.93+1.2%
Manchester City goals ↓
Coventry goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
0.0%
1
9.0%
7.9%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
2
12%
9.0%
3.3%
0.8%
0.2%
3
10%
7.6%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
4
6.5%
4.8%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Manchester City goals (down), columns = Coventry goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Manchester City is 1.08 points better than Coventry in terms of average points per game (2.05 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Manchester City is 1.05 goals better than Coventry in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 0.98).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Manchester City is 1.01 goals better than Coventry in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.93).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Manchester City
For 8.2 · Against 3.7 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 10.9 · Total 20.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Coventry
For 4.5 · Against 2.7 · Total 7.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 13.4 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Manchester City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.3
10.2
3.7
3.5
3.8
21.0
20.5
21.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
10.4
11.6
9.3
4.8
5.2
4.5
24.4
22.0
26.3
vs Weaker (39)
10.2
10.0
10.4
3.4
3.1
3.6
20.0
20.2
19.8
% over line
58%
62%
54%
54%
50%
58%
48%
46%
50%
% under line
42%
38%
46%
46%
50%
42%
52%
54%
50%
This opponent (Coventry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Coventry
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.4
9.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
21.4
21.6
21.2
vs Stronger (1)
10.0
-
10.0
2.0
-
2.0
23.0
-
23.0
vs Similar (29)
9.5
9.9
9.2
4.0
4.5
3.6
22.0
22.7
21.3
vs Weaker (20)
9.6
8.8
10.3
3.3
2.6
3.9
20.4
19.8
20.9
% over line
42%
30%
52%
48%
52%
44%
46%
52%
41%
% under line
58%
70%
48%
52%
48%
56%
54%
48%
59%
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Brighton
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Everton
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Sunderland
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.3
Hull
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.9
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
Leeds
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Everton
21.6
Manchester United
21.5
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
20.0
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.9%
@ 1.55-5.5%
Under 9.5
46.1%
@ 2.27+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.60
Unibet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.51
Under
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.30
Unibet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.22
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
48.5%
@ 2.17+5.6%
Under 3.5
51.5%
@ 1.63-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.44
Unibet
2.15
1xBet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
Under
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Unibet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.53
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
41.5%
Under 21.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Manchester City or Draw
91.9%
Avg Implied 92.2% · @ 1.03
Edge
-0.3%
75%
17%
8%
covers Manchester City + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
William Hil
1.04
BetVictor
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Manchester City or Coventry
83.5%
Avg Implied 88.2% · @ 1.08
Edge
-4.7%
75%
17%
8%
covers Manchester City + Coventry
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Draw or Coventry
24.6%
Avg Implied 19.6% · @ 4.86
Edge
+5.0%
75%
17%
8%
covers Draw + Coventry
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.05
BetVictor
5.00
Betfair
5.00
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Manchester City over/under 0.5
Over
92.0%
@ 1.02-0.5%
Under
8.0%
@ 12.56+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
Under
Bet365
15.00
1xBet
14.50
Unibet
11.50
Betano
9.25
Manchester City over/under 1.5
Over
71.7%
@ 1.19-6.7%
Under
28.3%
@ 4.32+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Under
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Pinnacle
4.42
Unibet
4.40
BetVictor
4.33
Manchester City over/under 2.5
Over
46.2%
@ 1.65-10.6%
Under
53.8%
@ 2.17+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Under
Unibet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
Manchester City over/under 3.5
Over
24.7%
@ 2.67-10.3%
Under
75.3%
@ 1.44+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.82
1xBet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.70
BetVictor
2.70
Betfair
2.63
Under
Unibet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Coventry over/under 0.5
Over
52.3%
@ 1.83+1.5%
Under
47.7%
@ 1.89-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Unibet
1.86
BetVictor
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Betano
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Marathonbet
1.88
Coventry over/under 1.5
Over
17.0%
@ 5.16-1.1%
Under
83.0%
@ 1.14+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Unibet
5.20
Under
1xBet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Coventry over/under 2.5
Over
3.9%
@ 13.50-3.2%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.03+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Marathonbet
14.50
1xBet
13.50
Betano
10.50
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Coventry over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
@ 33.00-2.3%
Under
99.3%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Manchester City, so a minus line means Manchester City give that many goals of a start and Coventry receive them. At -1, Manchester City must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Manchester City win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Manchester City)
Manchester City -2
32.4%
@ 2.13-9.7%
Draw -2
21.8%
@ 4.05-0.4%
Coventry +2
45.8%
@ 2.51+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
10Bet
2.15
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.04
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.85
Away
Unibet
2.63
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Marathonbet
2.44
Handicap -1 (Manchester City)
Manchester City -1
54.2%
@ 1.46-7.6%
Draw -1
21.2%
@ 4.46+1.0%
Coventry +1
24.6%
@ 5.02+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.41
Draw
Unibet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
10Bet
4.33
Away
Unibet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.15
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Handicap +1 (Manchester City)
Manchester City +1
91.9%
@ 1.03+0.4%
Draw +1
5.7%
@ 16.00-0.2%
Coventry -1
2.4%
@ 37.50-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
34.00
Handicap +2 (Manchester City)
Manchester City +2
97.6%
Draw +2
1.9%
Coventry -2
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Manchester City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
1.40
0.27
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.62
1.33
0.67
0.00
0.60
vs Weaker (22)
1.14
0.32
1.42
0.17
0.80
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Coventry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Coventry
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.33
0.60
0.33
1.00
0.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.28
0.44
0.33
1.33
0.22
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.27
0.83
0.33
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.7%
@ 1.18+1.3%
Under 0.5
19.3%
@ 4.55-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Under
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
Unibet
4.60
William Hil
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.9%
@ 1.92-5.0%
Under 1.5
56.1%
@ 1.84+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.02
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Pinnacle
1.94
Under
Unibet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Betfair
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.4%
@ 3.90-4.6%
Under 2.5
80.6%
@ 1.23+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Betano
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
William Hil
4.00
Under
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betano
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Manchester City over/under 0.5 HT
Over
71.0%
@ 1.29-1.1%
Under
29.0%
@ 3.34+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.23
Under
Unibet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.10
Manchester City over/under 1.5 HT
Over
38.4%
@ 2.39-0.5%
Under
61.6%
@ 1.52+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.43
Pinnacle
2.42
10Bet
2.30
Under
10Bet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Unibet
1.55
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Manchester City over/under 2.5 HT
Over
19.5%
@ 5.30+2.0%
Under
80.5%
@ 1.12-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.80
Betano
5.40
Unibet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
1xBet
1.10
Coventry over/under 0.5 HT
Over
26.3%
@ 3.29-2.0%
Under
73.7%
@ 1.29+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.63
Unibet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
Betano
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Under
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Coventry over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.1%
@ 10.25-4.1%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.03+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Coventry over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Manchester City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.57
0.87
0.47
1.13
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.60
0.20
vs Weaker (22)
0.86
0.68
0.83
0.50
0.90
0.90
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Coventry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Coventry
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
1.13
0.53
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.61
1.00
0.67
0.56
0.56
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.73
1.33
0.33
0.80
1.20
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
85.6%
@ 1.10+0.3%
Under 0.5
14.4%
@ 6.40-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Under
1xBet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
Betano
6.10
10Bet
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.8%
@ 1.57-8.1%
Under 1.5
48.2%
@ 2.34+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.62
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
Under
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.39
1xBet
2.39
Unibet
2.35
10Bet
2.30
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
33.7%
@ 2.71-0.7%
Under 2.5
66.3%
@ 1.43+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.90
Marathonbet
2.74
1xBet
2.74
10Bet
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Under
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.41
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Manchester City over/under 0.5 2H
Over
79.1%
@ 1.18+0.3%
Under
20.9%
@ 4.40-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Under
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.30
Manchester City over/under 1.5 2H
Over
54.8%
@ 1.88+5.3%
Under
45.2%
@ 1.84-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
Betano
1.87
Under
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Manchester City over/under 2.5 2H
Over
25.9%
@ 3.67+0.6%
Under
74.1%
@ 1.24-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.80
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.50
Under
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Coventry over/under 0.5 2H
Over
30.9%
@ 2.67-4.0%
Under
69.1%
@ 1.43+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.72
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.65
Under
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.40
Coventry over/under 1.5 2H
Over
6.0%
@ 9.80-3.5%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.02+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
9.90
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Coventry over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.2%
@ 13.50-5.8%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.8%
Under 7.5
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+3.8%
Home +2 handicap
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.1%
1.03
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+3.2%
Under 6.5
95.2%
1.06
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+5.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.9%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
94.0%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.5%
Home over 0.5 goals
92.0%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
-
-0.5%
Home or Draw
91.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
William Hil
1.04
BetVictor
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-0.3%
Home +1 handicap
91.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+0.4%
Under 5.5
88.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
+6.8%
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.10
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
+0.3%
Under 25.5 fouls
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.4%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
-2.2%
Under 5.5 cards
84.4%
1.16
Betano
1.16
-
-
-
-
+3.5%
Home or Away
83.5%
1.08
William Hil
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
-4.7%
Away under 1.5 goals
83.0%
1.14
1xBet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
+1.1%
Over 0.5 HT goals
80.7%
1.18
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
+1.3%
Under 2.5 HT goals
80.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betano
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
+4.6%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
80.5%
1.12
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
1xBet
1.10
-
-2.0%
Home over 0.5 2H goals
79.1%
1.18
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
+0.3%
Under 4.5
76.9%
1.37
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
BetVictor
1.37
+8.7%
Home win
75.4%
1.17
1xBet
1.21
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Dafabet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
-5.7%
Home under 3.5 goals
75.3%
1.44
Unibet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
+10.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
74.1%
1.24
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
-
-
-0.6%
Under 23.5 fouls
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
73.7%
1.29
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
+2.0%
Home over 1.5 goals
71.7%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
-6.7%
Home over 0.5 HT goals
71.0%
1.29
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.23
-
-1.1%
Under 4.5 cards
70.6%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.28
-
-
-
-0.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Manchester City · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Erling Haaland55%
Antoine Semenyo42%
Rayan Cherki20%
Max Alleyne17%
Jérémy Doku15%
Phil Foden14%
Omar Marmoush14%
Nico O'Reilly13%
Tijjani Reijnders13%
Savinho11%
Marc Guéhi10%
Joško Gvardiol8%
Rodri6%
Rúben Dias6%
Bernardo Silva6%
Nico González5%
Rico Lewis5%
Matheus Nunes2%
John Stones0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
Nathan Aké0%
Rayan Aït-Nouri0%
James Trafford0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Divine Mukasa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bernardo Silva28%
Gianluigi Donnarumma23%
Nico González20%
Rodri19%
Abdukodir Khusanov17%
Nico O'Reilly15%
Rayan Aït-Nouri15%
Matheus Nunes15%
Rico Lewis14%
Rúben Dias12%
Savinho11%
Phil Foden10%
Marc Guéhi10%
Omar Marmoush9%
Joško Gvardiol8%
Oscar Bobb7%
Tijjani Reijnders4%
Erling Haaland4%
Rayan Cherki4%
Antoine Semenyo4%
Nathan Aké3%
John Stones0%
Jérémy Doku0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
James Trafford0%
Max Alleyne0%
Divine Mukasa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Divine Mukasa33%
Rayan Cherki24%
Jérémy Doku19%
Joško Gvardiol16%
Erling Haaland16%
Rayan Aït-Nouri15%
Matheus Nunes15%
Rico Lewis14%
Tijjani Reijnders13%
Phil Foden12%
Antoine Semenyo12%
Nico O'Reilly12%
Mateo Kovačić11%
Bernardo Silva9%
Omar Marmoush9%
Oscar Bobb7%
Savinho6%
Marc Guéhi5%
Rodri0%
Rúben Dias0%
John Stones0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Nathan Aké0%
Nico González0%
James Trafford0%
Max Alleyne0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Erling Haaland53%
Antoine Semenyo19%
Omar Marmoush17%
Tijjani Reijnders15%
Rayan Cherki12%
Phil Foden10%
Savinho8%
Rodri6%
Marc Guéhi5%
Rico Lewis5%
Jérémy Doku4%
Joško Gvardiol4%
Nico O'Reilly4%
Rúben Dias0%
John Stones0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
Nathan Aké0%
Rayan Aït-Nouri0%
Matheus Nunes0%
Nico González0%
James Trafford0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Max Alleyne0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Divine Mukasa0%
Coventry
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Taiwo Awoniyi33%
Victor Torp33%
Jack Rudoni33%
Gustavo Hamer0%
Brandon Thomas-Asante0%
Aurèle Amenda0%
Bobby Thomas0%
Caleb Yirenkyi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aurèle Amenda33%
Caleb Yirenkyi33%
Taiwo Awoniyi0%
Victor Torp0%
Jack Rudoni0%
Gustavo Hamer0%
Brandon Thomas-Asante0%
Bobby Thomas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Taiwo Awoniyi33%
Victor Torp33%
Caleb Yirenkyi33%
Jack Rudoni0%
Gustavo Hamer0%
Brandon Thomas-Asante0%
Aurèle Amenda0%
Bobby Thomas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Taiwo Awoniyi33%
Victor Torp0%
Jack Rudoni0%
Gustavo Hamer0%
Brandon Thomas-Asante0%
Aurèle Amenda0%
Bobby Thomas0%
Caleb Yirenkyi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Manchester City's squad is €1089m more valuable than Coventry's (€1326m vs €237m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Manchester City's attack is €550m more valuable than Coventry's (€635m vs €85m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Manchester City's midfield is €108m more valuable than Coventry's (€160m vs €52m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Manchester City's defence is €432m more valuable than Coventry's (€531m vs €99m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham