Manchester City are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 73 % chance to a home win. Their strong home form - scoring an average of 2.25 goals and conceding only 0.67 - against a weaker opponent, combined with Sunderland’s poorer away record of 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded, explains the high probability. The expected total is 2.9 goals, but the most likely total is 2, with a 24 % chance. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, carrying a 13.7 % probability. Home win, draw and away win probabilities are 73 %, 19 % and 9 % respectively. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.5 %), Under 7.5 (99.0 %), Home +2 handicap (97.7 %), Away under 2.5 goals (97.0 %), Under 6.5 (97.0 %), Under 5.5 (92.3 %), Home or Draw (91.5 %) and Home +1 handicap (91.5 %). The model’s recent form notes that City are coming off a win, while Sunderland are coming off a defeat.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Manchester City win
73.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sunderland win
8.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Manchester City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.97
2.27
0.73
1.67
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.88
0.88
2.33
1.00
1.60
0.80
vs Weaker (22)
2.00
1.00
2.25
0.67
1.70
1.40
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sunderland) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sunderland
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.30
0.92
1.00
1.00
1.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
0.67
0.67
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (22)
1.14
1.32
1.00
1.10
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.5%
Under 2.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.3%
Under 3.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.1%
3-0
9.9%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
9.0%
1-1
8.2%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
6.1%
0-0
4.7%
Manchester City goals ↓
Sunderland goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
2.3%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
1
9.0%
8.2%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
2
12%
9.2%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
9.9%
7.6%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
4
6.1%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Manchester City goals (down), columns = Sunderland goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brentford
1.39
Brighton
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Manchester City is 0.63 points better than Sunderland in terms of average points per game (2.05 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Manchester City is 0.92 goals better than Sunderland in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Manchester City is 0.34 goals better than Sunderland in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Manchester City is 15.4 percentage points better than Sunderland in terms of average possession (60% vs 45%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Manchester City or Draw
91.5%
Avg Implied -
74%
17%
9%
covers Manchester City + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Manchester City or Sunderland
81.4%
Avg Implied -
74%
17%
9%
covers Manchester City + Sunderland
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sunderland
27.1%
Avg Implied -
74%
17%
9%
covers Draw + Sunderland
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Manchester City over/under 0.5
Over
89.6%
Under
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 1.5
Over
66.1%
Under
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 2.5
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 3.5
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 0.5
Over
48.5%
Under
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 1.5
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 2.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Manchester City, so a minus line means Manchester City give that many goals of a start and Sunderland receive them. At -1, Manchester City must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Manchester City win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Manchester City)
Manchester City -2
27.9%
Draw -2
22.0%
Sunderland +2
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Manchester City)
Manchester City -1
49.9%
Draw -1
23.0%
Sunderland +1
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Manchester City)
Manchester City +1
91.5%
Draw +1
6.2%
Sunderland -1
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Manchester City)
Manchester City +2
97.7%
Draw +2
1.9%
Sunderland -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Manchester City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
1.40
0.27
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.62
1.33
0.67
0.00
0.60
vs Weaker (22)
1.14
0.32
1.42
0.17
0.80
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Sunderland) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sunderland
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.38
0.38
0.35
0.82
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.68
0.40
0.50
0.42
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Manchester City over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Manchester City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.57
0.87
0.47
1.13
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.60
0.20
vs Weaker (22)
0.86
0.68
0.83
0.50
0.90
0.90
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Sunderland) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sunderland
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.54
0.62
0.65
0.71
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.64
0.60
0.60
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Manchester City over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Manchester City's squad is €934m more valuable than Sunderland's (€1326m vs €392m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Manchester City's attack is €478m more valuable than Sunderland's (€635m vs €157m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Manchester City's midfield is €50m more valuable than Sunderland's (€160m vs €110m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Manchester City's defence is €405m more valuable than Sunderland's (€531m vs €125m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →