Manchester United’s home form shows a modest 1.88 goals per game but a 1.62 average conceded, while Liverpool’s away average of 1.75 scored and 2.0 conceded suggests a more open match. The model projects a 50% chance of an away win, 26% for a home win and 25% for a draw, making the Liverpool victory the favoured result. With an expected total of 3.2 goals, the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.2% probability. The match is expected to be high-scoring, as the combined attacking output and defensive leaky nature point to a lively contest.
The suggested picks include an 83.6% chance of over 1.5 goals, an 83.5% chance of under 25.5 fouls, an 82.4% chance of over 2.5 cards, a 71.2% chance of under 23.5 fouls and a 70.6% chance of under 5.5 cards. The corner picks are 90% for over 8.5 corners, 83.5% for over 9.5 corners and 74.9% for over 10.5 corners, all of which the model expects to miss. The probabilities for the match outcomes remain 26% home win, 25% draw and 50% away win.
Results analysis
Manchester United finished 0-3 against Liverpool (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 26% home win, 25% draw and 50% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (84%), Under 25.5 fouls (84%), Over 2.5 cards (82%), Under 23.5 fouls (71%), Under 5.5 cards (71%). Missed: Over 8.5 corners (90%), Over 9.5 corners (84%), Over 10.5 corners (75%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Manchester United winâś— Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.56
Edge
-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied 23.8% · @ 4.04
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Liverpool winâś“ Hit
49.7%
Avg Implied 49.3% · @ 1.95
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Manchester United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.60
1.71
1.36
1.56
1.81
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.50
1.75
1.88
1.62
1.25
1.83
vs Weaker (8)
2.25
1.12
1.80
1.00
3.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Liverpool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liverpool
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.13
2.40
1.07
2.20
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.70
1.60
1.67
1.33
1.75
2.00
vs Weaker (20)
2.60
0.90
2.89
0.89
2.36
0.91
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.6%
@ 1.45-3.9%
Under 2.5
38.4%
@ 2.75+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.3%
Under 3.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.7%
No
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.3%
0-1
6.8%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
6.2%
1-3
6.0%
0-0
5.2%
Manchester United goals ↓
Liverpool goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
6.8%
7.3%
4.6%
2.1%
1
4.4%
11%
9.5%
6.0%
2.8%
2
3.6%
6.7%
6.2%
3.9%
1.8%
3
1.5%
2.9%
2.7%
1.7%
0.8%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Manchester United goals (down), columns = Liverpool goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Liverpool
2.21
Arsenal
1.95
Manchester City
1.87
Chelsea
1.82
Newcastle
1.74
Aston Villa
1.74
Nottingham Forest
1.71
Brighton
1.61
Brentford
1.47
Bournemouth
1.47
Fulham
1.42
Crystal Palace
1.39
Everton
1.26
West Ham
1.13
Wolves
1.11
Manchester United
1.11
Tottenham
1.00
Leicester
0.66
Ipswich
0.58
Southampton
0.32
Manchester United is 1.11 points worse than Liverpool in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 2.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Liverpool
2.26
Manchester City
1.89
Arsenal
1.82
Newcastle
1.79
Brighton
1.74
Brentford
1.74
Chelsea
1.68
Tottenham
1.68
Nottingham Forest
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.53
Fulham
1.42
Wolves
1.42
Crystal Palace
1.34
West Ham
1.21
Manchester United
1.16
Everton
1.11
Ipswich
0.95
Leicester
0.87
Southampton
0.68
Manchester United is 1.11 goals worse than Liverpool in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 2.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.89
Liverpool
1.08
Chelsea
1.13
Manchester City
1.16
Everton
1.16
Nottingham Forest
1.21
Bournemouth
1.21
Newcastle
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.34
Aston Villa
1.34
Fulham
1.42
Manchester United
1.42
Brentford
1.50
Brighton
1.55
West Ham
1.63
Tottenham
1.71
Wolves
1.82
Leicester
2.11
Ipswich
2.16
Southampton
2.26
Manchester United is 0.34 goals worse than Liverpool in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
61%
Liverpool
58%
Arsenal
57%
Chelsea
57%
Tottenham
55%
Manchester United
54%
Fulham
53%
Brighton
53%
Newcastle
51%
Aston Villa
50%
Bournemouth
49%
West Ham
48%
Brentford
48%
Southampton
48%
Leicester
45%
Crystal Palace
43%
Everton
41%
Nottingham Forest
41%
Ipswich
40%
Manchester United is 4.3 percentage points worse than Liverpool in terms of average possession (54% vs 58%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Manchester United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.75
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.75
0.62
0.88
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.25
0.60
0.20
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Liverpool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liverpool
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
1.00
0.53
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.50
0.83
0.50
1.25
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.85
0.50
1.11
0.56
0.64
0.45
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Manchester United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liverpool over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liverpool over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liverpool over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Manchester United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.03
1.14
0.79
0.81
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (20)
0.95
1.00
1.25
0.75
0.75
1.17
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.88
1.20
0.80
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Liverpool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liverpool
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.63
1.40
0.53
1.40
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
1.10
0.83
0.83
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.75
0.40
1.78
0.33
1.73
0.45
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Manchester United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liverpool over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liverpool over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liverpool over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 8.5 corners
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Over 1.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Over 2.5 cards
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 10.5 corners
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
LEI (22)
€69m
Manchester United's squad is €50m less valuable than Liverpool's (€929m vs €980m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
IPS (11)
€130m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
SOU (10)
€72m
LEI (7)
€20m
Manchester United's attack is €86m less valuable than Liverpool's (€432m vs €518m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
BOU (6)
€106m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
FUL (3)
€28m
LEI (4)
€13m
Manchester United's midfield is €36m more valuable than Liverpool's (€236m vs €201m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
LEI (11)
€36m
Manchester United and Liverpool have a similar defence value (both €261m).
England: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arsenal
Manchester City
Chelsea
Newcastle
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Brighton
Bournemouth
Brentford
Fulham
Crystal Palace
Everton
West Ham
Wolves
Tottenham
Leicester
Ipswich
Southampton