Manchester City’s recent two-game winning run and their strong away form against weaker opponents set the stage for a likely victory, with the model picking an away win. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 10.6% chance. United’s home record shows 2.0 goals scored and none conceded against stronger sides, while City averages 1.7 scored and 1.4 conceded on the road. The home win probability sits at 34%, a draw at 24%, and the away win at 41%. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.3% with a 6% edge), Under 7.5 (98.2% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.3% with a 7% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.2% with a 5% edge), Under 6.5 (95.2% with a 2% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (94.0% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (92.7% with a 4% edge) and Home under 1.5 HT goals (89.5% with a 6% edge).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Manchester United win
34.4%
Avg Implied 30.9% · @ 3.05
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.18
Marathonbet
3.12
Dafabet
3.10
Bet365
3.10
Betano
3.10
Draw
24.5%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.78
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.01
Pinnacle
3.97
Marathonbet
3.95
Betfair
3.80
Dafabet
3.80
Manchester City win
41.1%
Avg Implied 44.2% · @ 2.13
Edge
-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.18
Dafabet
2.16
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.15
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Manchester United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.27
2.12
1.38
1.57
1.14
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.95
1.32
2.33
1.50
1.50
1.10
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
1.29
1.33
1.33
1.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.97
2.27
0.73
1.67
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.88
0.88
2.33
1.00
1.60
0.80
vs Weaker (22)
2.00
1.00
2.25
0.67
1.70
1.40
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.4%
@ 1.15+4.8%
Under 1.5
13.6%
@ 5.06-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
Under
BetVictor
5.40
Unibet
5.25
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Betano
5.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.2%
@ 1.50+3.6%
Under 2.5
33.8%
@ 2.50-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.59
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.50
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.3%
@ 2.26+2.2%
Under 3.5
55.7%
@ 1.64-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.32
Betano
2.32
Bet365
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Marathonbet
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Both teams to score
Yes
67.8%
@ 1.44+3.2%
No
32.2%
@ 2.62-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.44
No
BetVictor
2.70
1xBet
2.66
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%@ 7.25+4.3%
1-2
8.6%@ 8.43+3.2%
2-1
7.8%@ 10.16+3.3%
2-2
6.9%@ 10.46+2.6%
0-2
5.3%@ 12.47+1.6%
1-3
5.1%@ 13.64+1.8%
0-1
4.9%@ 10.51+0.6%
1-0
4.4%@ 12.97+0.9%
Manchester United goals ↓
Manchester City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
4.9%
5.3%
3.1%
1.4%
1
4.4%
11%
8.6%
5.1%
2.3%
2
4.4%
7.8%
6.9%
4.1%
1.8%
3
2.4%
4.2%
3.8%
2.2%
1.0%
4
1.0%
1.7%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Manchester United goals (down), columns = Manchester City goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brentford
1.39
Brighton
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Manchester United is 0.18 points worse than Manchester City in terms of average points per game (1.87 vs 2.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Manchester United is 0.21 goals worse than Manchester City in terms of goals scored per game (1.82 vs 2.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Manchester United is 0.39 goals worse than Manchester City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Manchester United is 8.6 percentage points worse than Manchester City in terms of average possession (52% vs 60%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Manchester United
For 6.2 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 10.7 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Manchester City
For 8.2 · Against 3.7 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 10.9 · Total 20.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Manchester United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.4
9.5
3.8
4.3
3.3
21.3
21.1
21.6
vs Stronger (2)
6.5
7.0
6.0
2.5
5.0
0.0
18.5
21.0
16.0
vs Similar (36)
9.5
9.4
9.5
4.2
4.7
3.6
21.9
21.6
22.2
vs Weaker (12)
10.1
10.0
10.2
2.9
2.8
3.0
19.9
18.8
20.7
% over line
50%
50%
50%
58%
72%
44%
46%
46%
46%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
42%
28%
56%
54%
54%
54%
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.2
10.1
3.5
3.4
3.5
21.1
20.6
21.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
10.4
11.6
9.3
4.1
5.2
3.4
24.4
22.0
26.3
vs Weaker (37)
10.1
9.8
10.4
3.2
3.0
3.6
20.1
20.2
19.9
% over line
55%
60%
50%
50%
46%
54%
49%
48%
50%
% under line
45%
40%
50%
50%
54%
46%
51%
52%
50%
This opponent (Manchester United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Brighton
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Everton
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Sunderland
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.3
Hull
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.9
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
Leeds
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Everton
21.6
Manchester United
21.5
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
20.0
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.1%
@ 1.74+1.4%
Under 9.5
45.9%
@ 1.94-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.74
Under
Unibet
1.94
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
57.6%
Under 3.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
43.5%
Under 21.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Manchester United or Draw
54.9%
Avg Implied 55.7% · @ 1.69
Edge
-0.8%
34%
24%
41%
covers Manchester United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Betano
1.72
William Hil
1.70
Bet365
1.70
Manchester United or Manchester City
75.2%
Avg Implied 75.1% · @ 1.25
Edge
+0.0%
34%
24%
41%
covers Manchester United + Manchester City
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
Draw or Manchester City
69.9%
Avg Implied 69.2% · @ 1.36
Edge
+0.8%
34%
24%
41%
covers Draw + Manchester City
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Manchester United over/under 0.5
Over
76.6%
@ 1.23+1.2%
Under
23.4%
@ 3.75-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
3.96
BetVictor
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Manchester United over/under 1.5
Over
42.5%
@ 2.15-1.1%
Under
57.5%
@ 1.66+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Under
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
BetVictor
1.65
Manchester United over/under 2.5
Over
17.9%
@ 4.65-2.2%
Under
82.1%
@ 1.17+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.65
BetVictor
4.60
Under
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Manchester United over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
@ 10.44-3.0%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.03+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Betfair
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Manchester City over/under 0.5
Over
83.6%
@ 1.14+2.0%
Under
16.4%
@ 5.05-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
1xBet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Manchester City over/under 1.5
Over
53.9%
@ 1.75+0.4%
Under
46.1%
@ 2.01-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Under
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
2.06
Pinnacle
2.05
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Manchester City over/under 2.5
Over
27.1%
@ 3.30-1.1%
Under
72.9%
@ 1.30+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.36
10Bet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Under
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Manchester City over/under 3.5
Over
11.0%
@ 7.18-2.0%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.07+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
6.95
1xBet
6.95
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Manchester United, so a minus line means Manchester United give that many goals of a start and Manchester City receive them. At -1, Manchester United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Manchester United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Manchester United)
Manchester United -2
5.2%
@ 13.12-1.7%
Draw -2
9.0%
@ 8.25-2.0%
Manchester City +2
85.8%
@ 1.10+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
10Bet
12.00
Unibet
11.50
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Away
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Handicap -1 (Manchester United)
Manchester United -1
14.2%
@ 5.77-1.4%
Draw -1
15.9%
@ 4.94-2.3%
Manchester City +1
69.9%
@ 1.36+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.50
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Away
Marathonbet
1.40
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
Handicap +1 (Manchester United)
Manchester United +1
54.9%
@ 1.69+1.8%
Draw +1
20.0%
@ 4.03-2.2%
Manchester City -1
25.1%
@ 3.64+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.74
Unibet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Unibet
3.80
Away
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Handicap +2 (Manchester United)
Manchester United +2
74.9%
@ 1.23+2.2%
Draw +2
13.9%
@ 5.85-1.3%
Manchester City -2
11.1%
@ 7.45-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.50
Away
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Manchester United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.45
0.83
0.50
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.86
0.67
0.67
0.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
1.40
0.27
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.62
1.33
0.67
0.00
0.60
vs Weaker (22)
1.14
0.32
1.42
0.17
0.80
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.0%
@ 1.25+0.4%
Under 0.5
25.0%
@ 3.68-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Under
William Hil
3.90
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.66
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.2%
@ 2.19-4.4%
Under 1.5
61.8%
@ 1.64+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Marathonbet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
William Hil
1.65
BetVictor
1.63
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.4%
@ 4.95-4.5%
Under 2.5
85.6%
@ 1.16+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
Under
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Manchester United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.3%
@ 1.93-4.9%
Under
56.7%
@ 1.79+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Unibet
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Unibet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Manchester United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.5%
@ 5.76-5.6%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.10+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.85
Marathonbet
5.85
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Manchester United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
@ 11.50-6.5%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.02+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Manchester City over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.8%
@ 1.71+2.5%
Under
43.2%
@ 2.03-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.70
10Bet
1.67
Under
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
2.03
Betano
2.00
Manchester City over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.2%
@ 4.46-1.6%
Under
80.8%
@ 1.17+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.50
Betano
4.45
10Bet
4.33
Under
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Manchester City over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.8%
@ 10.00-5.5%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Manchester United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.73
1.38
0.88
1.07
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.23
0.86
1.50
1.00
0.90
0.70
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.43
0.67
0.67
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.57
0.87
0.47
1.13
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.60
0.20
vs Weaker (22)
0.86
0.68
0.83
0.50
0.90
0.90
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.6%
@ 1.15-1.4%
Under 0.5
19.4%
@ 5.23+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.35
10Bet
5.10
Betano
5.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.5%
@ 1.72-3.1%
Under 1.5
48.5%
@ 2.07+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.70
Under
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.13
Betano
2.12
William Hil
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.5%
@ 3.18-6.9%
Under 2.5
77.5%
@ 1.33+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
1xBet
3.12
Marathonbet
3.12
10Bet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.30
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Manchester United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.1%
@ 1.64-2.7%
Under
45.9%
@ 2.15+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Under
1xBet
2.16
Betano
2.15
Manchester United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.1%
@ 4.03-5.9%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.20+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Betano
3.95
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Manchester United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.7%
@ 9.00-6.7%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.04+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Manchester City over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.9%
@ 1.47-3.6%
Under
40.1%
@ 2.55+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Under
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Manchester City over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.7%
@ 3.19-6.3%
Under
77.3%
@ 1.30+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.20
Betano
3.15
1xBet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Manchester City over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.3%
@ 7.95-4.3%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.04+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.60
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.5%
Under 7.5
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.4%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.7%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
Under 6.5
95.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
+2.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
94.0%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+3.0%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.7%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.3%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.10
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+5.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
89.0%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+2.0%
Under 5.5
88.8%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
+2.2%
Over 1.5
86.4%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
+4.8%
Away +2 handicap
85.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
-
+3.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.6%
1.16
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+4.5%
Under 25.5 fouls
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.6%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
+2.0%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.20
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
-
+5.9%
Home under 2.5 goals
82.1%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+2.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
80.8%
1.17
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
-
+1.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.6%
1.15
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-1.4%
Under 5.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.5%
1.33
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.30
+6.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.3%
1.30
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
-
+6.3%
Under 4.5
77.0%
1.25
Betano
1.27
BetVictor
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+2.1%
Over 2.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.6%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+1.2%
Home or Away
75.2%
1.25
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
+0.0%
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.0%
1.25
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
+0.4%
Home +2 handicap
74.9%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
+2.2%
Away under 2.5 goals
72.9%
1.30
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
+1.1%
Under 23.5 fouls
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Manchester United · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Benjamin Šeško34%
Bryan Mbeumo32%
Matheus Cunha29%
Casemiro26%
Bruno Fernandes22%
Patrick Dorgu14%
Mason Mount12%
Harry Maguire8%
Joshua Zirkzee8%
Matthijs de Ligt7%
Amad Diallo6%
Kobbie Mainoo3%
Diogo Dalot3%
Luke Shaw3%
Noussair Mazraoui0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Manuel Ugarte0%
Senne Lammens0%
Leny Yoro0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Ayden Heaven0%
Shea Lacey0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Casemiro29%
Shea Lacey25%
Luke Shaw24%
Patrick Dorgu18%
Harry Maguire16%
Joshua Zirkzee15%
Noussair Mazraoui15%
Diogo Dalot14%
Bruno Fernandes14%
Bryan Mbeumo12%
Matheus Cunha11%
Ayden Heaven11%
Kobbie Mainoo10%
Mason Mount8%
Benjamin Šeško6%
Amad Diallo6%
Manuel Ugarte4%
Leny Yoro3%
Matthijs de Ligt0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Senne Lammens0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bruno Fernandes51%
Patrick Dorgu14%
Kobbie Mainoo10%
Amad Diallo9%
Bryan Mbeumo9%
Diogo Dalot8%
Harry Maguire8%
Casemiro6%
Matheus Cunha6%
Ayden Heaven6%
Mason Mount4%
Joshua Zirkzee4%
Benjamin Šeško3%
Luke Shaw3%
Matthijs de Ligt0%
Noussair Mazraoui0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Manuel Ugarte0%
Senne Lammens0%
Leny Yoro0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Shea Lacey0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bryan Mbeumo32%
Matheus Cunha31%
Benjamin Šeško25%
Bruno Fernandes22%
Amad Diallo15%
Casemiro14%
Joshua Zirkzee8%
Patrick Dorgu7%
Matthijs de Ligt0%
Noussair Mazraoui0%
Diogo Dalot0%
Luke Shaw0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Harry Maguire0%
Mason Mount0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Manuel Ugarte0%
Senne Lammens0%
Kobbie Mainoo0%
Leny Yoro0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Ayden Heaven0%
Shea Lacey0%
Manchester City · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Erling Haaland55%
Antoine Semenyo42%
Rayan Cherki20%
Max Alleyne17%
Jérémy Doku15%
Phil Foden14%
Omar Marmoush14%
Nico O'Reilly13%
Tijjani Reijnders13%
Savinho11%
Marc Guéhi10%
Joško Gvardiol8%
Rodri6%
Rúben Dias6%
Bernardo Silva6%
Nico González5%
Rico Lewis5%
Matheus Nunes2%
John Stones0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
Nathan Aké0%
Rayan Aït-Nouri0%
James Trafford0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Divine Mukasa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bernardo Silva28%
Gianluigi Donnarumma23%
Nico González20%
Rodri19%
Abdukodir Khusanov17%
Nico O'Reilly15%
Rayan Aït-Nouri15%
Matheus Nunes15%
Rico Lewis14%
Rúben Dias12%
Savinho11%
Phil Foden10%
Marc Guéhi10%
Omar Marmoush9%
Joško Gvardiol8%
Oscar Bobb7%
Tijjani Reijnders4%
Erling Haaland4%
Rayan Cherki4%
Antoine Semenyo4%
Nathan Aké3%
John Stones0%
Jérémy Doku0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
James Trafford0%
Max Alleyne0%
Divine Mukasa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Divine Mukasa33%
Rayan Cherki24%
Jérémy Doku19%
Joško Gvardiol16%
Erling Haaland16%
Rayan Aït-Nouri15%
Matheus Nunes15%
Rico Lewis14%
Tijjani Reijnders13%
Phil Foden12%
Antoine Semenyo12%
Nico O'Reilly12%
Mateo Kovačić11%
Bernardo Silva9%
Omar Marmoush9%
Oscar Bobb7%
Savinho6%
Marc Guéhi5%
Rodri0%
Rúben Dias0%
John Stones0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Nathan Aké0%
Nico González0%
James Trafford0%
Max Alleyne0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Erling Haaland53%
Antoine Semenyo19%
Omar Marmoush17%
Tijjani Reijnders15%
Rayan Cherki12%
Phil Foden10%
Savinho8%
Rodri6%
Marc Guéhi5%
Rico Lewis5%
Jérémy Doku4%
Joško Gvardiol4%
Nico O'Reilly4%
Rúben Dias0%
John Stones0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
Nathan Aké0%
Rayan Aït-Nouri0%
Matheus Nunes0%
Nico González0%
James Trafford0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Max Alleyne0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Divine Mukasa0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Manchester United's squad is €396m less valuable than Manchester City's (€929m vs €1326m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Manchester United's attack is €204m less valuable than Manchester City's (€432m vs €635m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Manchester United's midfield is €76m more valuable than Manchester City's (€236m vs €160m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Manchester United's defence is €270m less valuable than Manchester City's (€261m vs €531m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham