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Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest Result & Analysis

Date: 17/05/2026
Time: 12:30
Final 3-2
Manchester United
Manchester United
Vs
49%
26%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
England: Premier League
Referee: M Salisbury
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Odd / Even7 Home & Away Over/Under8 Handicap9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Manchester United a 49% win probability against Nottingham Forest in the England: Premier League on 2026-05-17, with 26% for the draw and 25% for Nottingham Forest. The model estimates around 2.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (79%).

Results analysis

Manchester United finished 3-2 against Nottingham Forest (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 49% home win, 26% draw and 25% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (79%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Manchester United win✓ Hit
48.6%
Avg Implied 60.3% · @ 1.56
Edge
-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied 21.3% · @ 4.42
Edge
+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nottingham Forest win✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied 18.4% · @ 5.12
Edge
+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Manchester UnitedManchester United

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W12L31W22D12L10W21W32W00DA·EVE23/02H·CRY01/03A·NEW04/03H·AST15/03A·BOU20/03H·LEE13/04A·CHE18/04H·BRE27/04H·LIV03/05A·SUN09/05
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.871.232.071.201.671.27
vs Stronger (4)2.501.252.501.002.501.50
vs Similar (11)1.731.182.401.001.171.33
vs Weaker (15)1.801.271.751.381.861.14
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W11D11D10W41W50W10W31W04L11DA·TOT22/03A·FC 09/04H·AST12/04H·FC 16/04H·BUR19/04A·SUN24/04H·AST30/04A·CHE04/05A·AST07/05H·NEW10/05
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.071.000.801.731.33
vs Stronger (15)1.201.200.710.861.621.50
vs Similar (14)1.641.001.430.861.861.14
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.4%
@ 1.50-8.2%
Under 2.5
45.6%
@ 2.51+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.0%
Under 3.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.2%
No
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
8.6%
2-0
8.2%
0-0
6.9%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
5.6%
0-1
5.6%
Manchester United goals ↓
Nottingham Forest goals →
01234
06.9%5.6%3.9%1.5%0.4%
18.6%12%6.6%2.6%0.7%
28.2%9.6%5.6%2.2%0.6%
34.6%5.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
42.0%2.3%1.3%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Manchester United goals (down), columns = Nottingham Forest goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Newcastle
1.29
Everton
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
West Ham
1.03
Burnley
0.58
Wolves
0.53
Manchester United is 0.71 points better than Nottingham Forest in terms of average points per game (1.87 vs 1.16).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Tottenham
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
West Ham
1.21
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Burnley
1.00
Wolves
0.71
Manchester United is 0.55 goals better than Nottingham Forest in terms of goals scored per game (1.82 vs 1.26).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Manchester United
1.32
Everton
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
West Ham
1.71
Wolves
1.79
Burnley
1.97
Manchester United is 0.03 goals better than Nottingham Forest in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.34).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
West Ham
42%
Burnley
42%
Manchester United is 5.8 percentage points better than Nottingham Forest in terms of average possession (52% vs 46%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Manchester UnitedManchester United

For 5.6 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.9

🚩 Corners

15087327817114866642711101551581514126811A·SUNH·LIVH·BREA·CHEH·LEEA·BOUH·ASTA·NEWH·CRYA·EVE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.9

🟨 Cards

6032224314232323323323464655655A·SUNH·LIVH·BREA·CHEH·LEEA·BOUH·ASTA·NEWH·CRYA·EVE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 11.3 · Total 22.3

⚠️ Fouls

3101212121169131212159101051615131271224231525271915312519A·SUNH·LIVH·BREA·CHEH·LEEA·BOUH·ASTA·NEWH·CRYA·EVE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest

For 4.1 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.4

🚩 Corners

160213611057634481732531339111298910716H·NEWA·ASTA·CHEH·ASTA·SUNH·BURH·FC H·ASTA·FC A·TOT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.1

🟨 Cards

702213152214221212241725413H·NEWA·ASTA·CHEH·ASTA·SUNH·BURH·FC H·ASTA·FC A·TOT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 11.0 · Total 23.3

⚠️ Fouls

280161112131012711151381216111510114131327252218282027251526H·NEWA·ASTA·CHEH·ASTA·SUNH·BURH·FC H·ASTA·FC A·TOT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Manchester UnitedManchester United

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.89.310.34.34.83.821.922.021.8
vs Stronger (7)8.16.810.03.34.81.321.923.819.3
vs Similar (19)9.99.110.55.25.45.023.222.423.7
vs Weaker (24)10.210.210.23.94.33.420.921.120.8
% over line52%50%54%66%79%54%54%54%54%
% under line48%50%46%34%21%46%46%46%46%
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.010.19.93.42.93.923.522.125.0
vs Stronger (21)10.09.810.13.13.03.322.522.522.4
vs Similar (27)10.010.49.63.62.84.324.121.526.5
vs Weaker (2)11.010.012.03.02.04.027.525.030.0
% over line54%60%48%48%40%56%62%52%72%
% under line46%40%52%52%60%44%38%48%28%
This opponent (Manchester United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.4
Bournemouth
10.6
Fulham
10.5
Liverpool
10.4
West Ham
10.3
Brentford
10.0
Tottenham
10.0
Nottingham Forest
10.0
Chelsea
10.0
Manchester City
10.0
Manchester United
9.8
Everton
9.8
Aston Villa
9.5
Brighton
9.5
Burnley
9.4
Leeds
9.2
Wolves
9.2
Arsenal
9.0
Sunderland
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.9

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Chelsea
4.6
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.4
Manchester United
4.3
Brighton
4.3
Sunderland
4.2
Newcastle
4.1
Crystal Palace
3.9
Brentford
3.8
Wolves
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Manchester City
3.7
West Ham
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Everton
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Liverpool
3.4
Nottingham Forest
3.4
Arsenal
3.2
Burnley
3.2

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Wolves
24.0
Aston Villa
23.8
Nottingham Forest
23.5
Bournemouth
23.5
Chelsea
23.1
Tottenham
22.5
Sunderland
22.3
West Ham
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Manchester United
21.9
Arsenal
21.9
Newcastle
21.6
Leeds
21.5
Everton
21.3
Crystal Palace
21.1
Burnley
20.8
Liverpool
20.7
Manchester City
20.6
Fulham
20.5
Brentford
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.8%
Under 9.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.6%
Under 3.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
43.8%
Under 21.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (26)
€1280m
MC (27)
€1243m
CHE (29)
€1114m
LIV (28)
€940m
MU (29)
€764m
TOT (32)
€713m
NEW (29)
€696m
BOU (31)
€658m
NFO (32)
€621m
BHA (32)
€592m
AVL (28)
€583m
CRY (30)
€553m
BRE (29)
€482m
WHU (34)
€449m
EVE (26)
€443m
SUN (31)
€415m
LEE (28)
€373m
FUL (25)
€356m
WOL (29)
€311m
BUR (33)
€233m
Manchester United's squad is €144m more valuable than Nottingham Forest's (€764m vs €621m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (11)
€555m
MC (7)
€542m
LIV (8)
€490m
CHE (8)
€418m
MU (10)
€362m
BOU (12)
€353m
NFO (12)
€301m
AVL (11)
€270m
CRY (12)
€255m
TOT (11)
€250m
NEW (8)
€249m
BRE (9)
€208m
EVE (8)
€194m
BHA (11)
€191m
FUL (11)
€188m
WHU (12)
€174m
SUN (13)
€168m
LEE (10)
€142m
BUR (14)
€100m
WOL (10)
€86m
Manchester United's attack is €60m more valuable than Nottingham Forest's (€362m vs €301m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (5)
€267m
NEW (6)
€249m
ARS (4)
€225m
LIV (6)
€201m
TOT (7)
€177m
BHA (8)
€176m
AVL (7)
€168m
MC (6)
€166m
EVE (7)
€126m
NFO (4)
€117m
WHU (8)
€112m
WOL (5)
€111m
SUN (5)
€108m
BOU (5)
€106m
MU (4)
€102m
LEE (6)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
BRE (7)
€89m
BUR (5)
€48m
FUL (4)
€38m
Manchester United's midfield is €14m less valuable than Nottingham Forest's (€102m vs €117m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (14)
€535m
ARS (11)
€500m
CHE (16)
€430m
MU (15)
€300m
TOT (14)
€286m
LIV (14)
€248m
BHA (13)
€225m
CRY (13)
€205m
NFO (16)
€203m
BOU (14)
€199m
NEW (15)
€198m
BRE (13)
€186m
WHU (14)
€164m
AVL (10)
€146m
SUN (13)
€140m
LEE (12)
€134m
FUL (10)
€131m
EVE (11)
€123m
WOL (14)
€115m
BUR (14)
€85m
Manchester United's defence is €98m more valuable than Nottingham Forest's (€300m vs €203m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest · H/A from MU
DateH/AGameScore
01/11/25ANottingham Forest Vs MU2-2
01/04/25ANottingham Forest Vs MU1-0
07/12/24HMU Vs Nottingham Forest2-3
30/12/23ANottingham Forest Vs MU2-1
26/08/23HMU Vs Nottingham Forest3-2
16/04/23ANottingham Forest Vs MU0-2
27/12/22HMU Vs Nottingham Forest3-0

Manchester UnitedManchester United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26ASunderland Vs MU0-0
03/05/26HMU Vs Liverpool3-2
27/04/26HMU Vs Brentford2-1
18/04/26AChelsea Vs MU0-1
13/04/26HMU Vs Leeds1-2
20/03/26ABournemouth Vs MU2-2
15/03/26HMU Vs Aston Villa3-1
04/03/26ANewcastle Vs MU2-1
01/03/26HMU Vs Crystal Palace2-1
23/02/26AEverton Vs MU0-1

Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26HNFO Vs Newcastle1-1
07/05/26AAston Villa Vs NFO4-0
04/05/26AChelsea Vs NFO1-3
30/04/26HNFO Vs Aston Villa1-0
24/04/26ASunderland Vs NFO0-5
19/04/26HNFO Vs Burnley4-1
16/04/26HNFO Vs FC Porto1-0
12/04/26HNFO Vs Aston Villa1-1
09/04/26AFC Porto Vs NFO1-1
22/03/26ATottenham Vs NFO0-3

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Manchester United
Manchester United
England: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWD1.60
HomeWWLWW2.04
AwayWLDWD1.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%62%27%
AVG goals3.083.212.96
Over 1.5 %78%79%77%
Over 2.5 %56%50%62%
Over 3.5 %36%33%38%
Scored1.681.961.42
Conceded1.401.251.54
BTTS64%58%69%
Clean Sheet20%25%15%
Corners9.829.2910.31
Cards4.284.753.85
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
England: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLD1.32
HomeDWWWD1.24
AwayWDWWL1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%32%40%
AVG goals2.522.282.76
Over 1.5 %76%68%84%
Over 2.5 %54%44%64%
Over 3.5 %24%20%28%
Scored1.301.201.40
Conceded1.221.081.36
BTTS40%36%44%
Clean Sheet32%36%28%
Corners10.0010.129.88
Cards3.382.883.88

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ArsenalArsenal3885
68%
2.2
7127+44
2.6
71%
53%
24%
9.1
42%
3.2
47%
21.3
47%
1280
5552255001.90.7
56%
2Manchester CityManchester City3878
61%
2.1
7735+42
2.9
87%
63%
21%
10.3
58%
3.9
63%
20.9
42%
1243
5421665352.00.9
60%
3Manchester UnitedManchester United3871
53%
1.9
6950+19
3.1
84%
63%
37%
9.7
53%
3.8
58%
21.2
47%
764
3621023001.81.3
52%
4Aston VillaAston Villa3865
50%
1.7
5649+7
2.8
74%
53%
29%
10.2
68%
3.9
61%
23.0
63%
583
2701681461.51.3
53%
5LiverpoolLiverpool3860
45%
1.6
6353+10
3.1
84%
61%
29%
10.5
55%
3.6
50%
20.7
37%
940
4902012481.71.4
59%
6BournemouthBournemouth3857
34%
1.5
5854+4
2.9
76%
55%
42%
10.9
63%
4.3
63%
22.5
53%
658
3531061991.51.4
50%
7SunderlandSunderland3854
37%
1.4
4248-6
2.4
71%
45%
18%
9.0
45%
4.1
55%
22.1
58%
415
1681081401.11.3
45%
8BrightonBrighton3853
37%
1.4
5246+6
2.6
82%
50%
18%
9.7
58%
4.3
63%
22.0
55%
592
1911762251.41.2
53%
9BrentfordBrentford3853
37%
1.4
5552+3
2.8
82%
53%
37%
10.2
63%
3.7
53%
19.6
34%
482
208891861.41.4
47%
10ChelseaChelsea3852
37%
1.4
5852+6
2.9
87%
66%
32%
10.4
68%
4.7
71%
23.4
68%
1114
4182674301.51.4
57%
11FulhamFulham3852
39%
1.4
4751-4
2.6
71%
50%
24%
10.5
66%
3.8
58%
20.8
39%
356
188381311.21.3
51%
12NewcastleNewcastle3849
37%
1.3
5355-2
2.8
76%
63%
34%
11.0
61%
4.2
61%
22.1
53%
696
2492491981.41.4
52%
13EvertonEverton3849
34%
1.3
4750-3
2.6
76%
45%
21%
9.4
42%
3.7
47%
21.7
58%
443
1941261231.21.3
44%
14LeedsLeeds3847
29%
1.2
4956-7
2.8
74%
55%
37%
9.5
53%
3.4
42%
21.7
47%
373
142981341.31.5
46%
15Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace3845
29%
1.2
4151-10
2.4
71%
55%
21%
9.4
47%
3.7
63%
20.2
37%
553
255932051.11.3
45%
16Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest3844
29%
1.2
4851-3
2.6
82%
53%
26%
10.1
58%
3.3
42%
22.2
53%
621
3011172031.31.3
46%
17TottenhamTottenham3841
26%
1.1
4857-9
2.8
82%
63%
26%
10.2
50%
4.7
71%
22.3
58%
713
2501772861.31.5
50%
18West HamWest Ham3839
26%
1.0
4665-19
2.9
87%
61%
29%
11.0
66%
3.8
55%
21.7
47%
449
1741121641.21.7
42%
19BurnleyBurnley3822
11%
0.6
3875-37
3.0
84%
50%
39%
9.6
53%
2.9
39%
19.5
37%
233
10048851.02.0
42%
20WolvesWolves3820
8%
0.5
2768-41
2.5
79%
45%
24%
9.4
58%
3.8
58%
23.8
66%
311
861111150.71.8
-
England: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →

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