PythiaFootballBETA
This match is expected to be a closely contested affair with Cardiff emerging as the favourite to win. The model predicts an away win, which is the most likely result, given the probabilities: Cardiff has a 44% chance of winning, Mansfield a 28% chance, and a draw is also 28% likely.
The expected total number of goals is 2.7, suggesting a relatively low-scoring match. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.4%.
Mansfield has struggled to score at home, averaging 1.3 goals per match, while conceding 1.1 goals. Cardiff, on the other hand, has scored an average of 1.4 goals while away, and conceded 1.4 goals against opponents of similar strength.
The model suggests Over 1.5 goals with a 75.7% probability, which would be a hit. Under 3.5 goals is also a model selection, with a 72.2% probability, but it would be a miss. The home win percentage is 28%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 44%.
In a stunning upset, Mansfield secured a home win against the odds, defeating Cardiff 5-4. This result extends Mansfield's unbeaten run to 5 matches, with their last 5 results reading WDWWD. The model's selection, an Away win, was incorrect, with Cardiff's pre-match probability of winning standing at 44%. Meanwhile, the model's call on Over 1.5 goals hitting, with a 75.7% probability, proved correct as the final score was 5-4. Under 3.5 goals, however, missed, with a 72.2% probability, as the total goals exceeded this mark.
Mansfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 0.93 | 1.43 | 1.07 | 1.31 | 0.81 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.29 | 0.83 | 1.50 | 0.92 | 1.08 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Cardiff| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.97 | 1.10 | 2.00 | 1.06 | 1.93 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.76 | 1.04 | 1.69 | 0.92 | 1.83 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 3.50 | 1.00 | 4.50 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Cardiff goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 6.9% | 13% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 4.7% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
MansfieldCardiffMansfield| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 22.2 | 21.8 | 22.6 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 10.5 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 18.4 | 21.7 | 16.4 |
| vs Similar (40) | 9.5 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 23.0 | 21.8 | 24.1 |
| vs Weaker (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 44% | 45% | 42% | 46% | 43% | 48% | 56% | 55% | 58% |
| % under line | 56% | 55% | 58% | 54% | 57% | 52% | 44% | 45% | 42% |
Cardiff| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 20.7 | 20.6 | 20.8 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 19.7 | 14.0 | 22.5 |
| vs Similar (37) | 11.0 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 20.0 | 19.4 | 20.6 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 9.0 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 23.3 | 25.0 | 20.8 |
| % over line | 63% | 68% | 58% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 31% | 32% | 29% |
| % under line | 37% | 32% | 42% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 69% | 68% | 71% |
Mansfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.43 | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.54 | 0.38 | 0.58 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Cardiff| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.47 | 0.88 | 0.31 | 0.86 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.84 | 0.48 | 0.77 | 0.31 | 0.92 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.25 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Mansfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.86 | 0.64 | 0.75 | 0.38 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.75 | 0.46 | 0.92 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
Cardiff| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 0.63 | 1.12 | 0.75 | 1.07 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.92 | 0.56 | 0.92 | 0.62 | 0.92 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 2.25 | 0.50 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 84.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 75.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 74.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 73.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 72.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 72.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 4.5 cards | 70.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 | A | 3-0 |
Mansfield| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 14/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 1-1 |
Cardiff| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 14/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 10/03/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Lincoln | 46 | 103 | 67% | 2.2 | 89 | 41 | +48 | 2.8 | 78% | 54% | 33% | 9.3 | 41% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.8 | 61% | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 42% |
| 2 | Cardiff | 46 | 91 | 59% | 2.0 | 90 | 50 | +40 | 3.0 | 78% | 54% | 37% | 10.5 | 61% | 3.5 | 52% | 20.6 | 30% | 31 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 63% |
| 3 |  Bolton | 49 | 84 | 45% | 1.7 | 76 | 53 | +23 | 2.6 | 76% | 47% | 27% | 10.4 | 57% | 3.7 | 49% | 22.4 | 57% | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 59% |
| 4 |  Stockport | 49 | 83 | 49% | 1.7 | 75 | 62 | +13 | 2.8 | 80% | 59% | 24% | 10.0 | 53% | 3.4 | 51% | 21.2 | 45% | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 55% |
| 5 |  Bradford | 48 | 77 | 46% | 1.6 | 58 | 53 | +5 | 2.3 | 69% | 50% | 17% | 9.9 | 52% | 4.4 | 67% | 25.2 | 77% | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 6 |  Stevenage | 48 | 75 | 44% | 1.6 | 49 | 49 | +0 | 2.0 | 52% | 35% | 19% | 8.7 | 46% | 3.8 | 54% | 24.5 | 75% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 45% |
| 7 |  Luton | 46 | 74 | 46% | 1.6 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 2.7 | 76% | 54% | 28% | 10.4 | 57% | 3.7 | 54% | 24.0 | 63% | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 8 |  Plymouth | 46 | 73 | 48% | 1.6 | 75 | 63 | +12 | 3.0 | 76% | 59% | 39% | 11.3 | 74% | 5.2 | 80% | 24.5 | 67% | 12 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 9 |  Huddersfield | 46 | 67 | 39% | 1.5 | 74 | 64 | +10 | 3.0 | 76% | 59% | 43% | 10.5 | 59% | 4.1 | 61% | 25.0 | 76% | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 10 | Mansfield | 46 | 65 | 35% | 1.4 | 62 | 50 | +12 | 2.4 | 74% | 46% | 20% | 9.5 | 39% | 3.6 | 46% | 22.4 | 57% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 11 |  Wycombe | 46 | 63 | 37% | 1.4 | 69 | 58 | +11 | 2.8 | 80% | 52% | 28% | 10.2 | 54% | 3.7 | 57% | 21.5 | 41% | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 12 |  Reading | 46 | 63 | 35% | 1.4 | 64 | 60 | +4 | 2.7 | 83% | 48% | 26% | 9.3 | 39% | 3.6 | 50% | 22.4 | 57% | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 13 |  Blackpool | 46 | 60 | 37% | 1.3 | 54 | 65 | -11 | 2.6 | 65% | 48% | 33% | 9.9 | 57% | 3.7 | 52% | 24.0 | 76% | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 46% |
| 14 |  Doncaster | 46 | 60 | 37% | 1.3 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 2.6 | 72% | 50% | 22% | 9.7 | 35% | 3.9 | 52% | 23.3 | 63% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 15 |  Barnsley | 46 | 59 | 33% | 1.3 | 68 | 73 | -5 | 3.1 | 83% | 63% | 46% | 10.9 | 57% | 3.5 | 50% | 21.0 | 43% | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 16 |  Wigan | 46 | 56 | 30% | 1.2 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 2.3 | 70% | 35% | 17% | 10.8 | 61% | 3.1 | 39% | 23.6 | 63% | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 45% |
| 17 |  Burton | 46 | 54 | 28% | 1.2 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 2.4 | 70% | 50% | 22% | 10.4 | 52% | 3.6 | 52% | 22.0 | 41% | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 18 |  Peterboro | 46 | 53 | 33% | 1.2 | 64 | 68 | -4 | 2.9 | 80% | 57% | 26% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 67% | 23.6 | 61% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 55% |
| 19 |  AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 53 | 33% | 1.2 | 51 | 72 | -21 | 2.7 | 67% | 50% | 30% | 9.7 | 50% | 3.2 | 46% | 23.2 | 65% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 20 |  Leyton Orient | 46 | 52 | 30% | 1.1 | 59 | 71 | -12 | 2.8 | 76% | 61% | 33% | 9.6 | 52% | 4.1 | 61% | 23.0 | 65% | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 21 |  Exeter | 46 | 49 | 26% | 1.1 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 2.5 | 65% | 46% | 24% | 10.1 | 54% | 3.3 | 50% | 22.0 | 57% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 22 |  Port Vale | 46 | 42 | 22% | 0.9 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 2.1 | 54% | 39% | 22% | 10.2 | 59% | 3.6 | 52% | 21.3 | 48% | 8 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 23 |  Rotherham | 46 | 41 | 22% | 0.9 | 41 | 71 | -30 | 2.4 | 67% | 52% | 24% | 9.8 | 52% | 4.2 | 65% | 23.9 | 65% | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 24 |  Northampton | 46 | 35 | 20% | 0.8 | 39 | 74 | -35 | 2.5 | 70% | 48% | 26% | 10.1 | 61% | 3.4 | 43% | 21.9 | 54% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 45% |