Defensive solidity will shape the forecast, as both sides have conceded an average of one goal per match against comparable opposition. The model favours a home win, with a 48 % probability, followed by a 31 % chance of a draw and a 21 % chance of an away victory. The expected total of 2.1 goals points to a tight affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Marek, carrying a 14.7 % probability. Marek’s home form shows 1.58 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Rilski Sportist’s away record is 0.67 scored and 1.0 conceded. The suggested picks are: Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1 %), Under 5.5 (97.8 %), Away under 2.5 goals (95.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.3 %), Under 4.5 (93.5 %), and Home +2 handicap (93.2 %). With both teams recently coming off wins, the low-scoring, home-side advantage narrative remains the strongest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Marek win
46.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist win
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Marek
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.03
1.58
0.67
0.56
1.28
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
1.03
1.58
0.67
0.56
1.28
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilski Sportist) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rilski Sportist
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.25
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
14% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.1%
Under 1.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
28.0%
Under 2.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
11.5%
Under 3.5
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
34.8%
No
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
17.4%
0-0
17.2%
1-1
13.7%
2-0
10.9%
0-1
9.3%
2-1
7.3%
3-0
4.3%
1-2
4.1%
Marek goals ↓
Rilski Sportist goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
9.3%
3.5%
0.8%
0.1%
1
17%
14%
4.1%
0.9%
0.2%
2
11%
7.3%
2.4%
0.5%
0.1%
3
4.3%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marek goals (down), columns = Rilski Sportist goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Marek is 0.14 points better than Rilski Sportist in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Marek and Rilski Sportist are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Marek is 0.14 goals better than Rilski Sportist in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Marek or Draw
80.3%
Avg Implied -
47%
33%
20%
covers Marek + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marek or Rilski Sportist
66.5%
Avg Implied -
47%
33%
20%
covers Marek + Rilski Sportist
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rilski Sportist
53.2%
Avg Implied -
47%
33%
20%
covers Draw + Rilski Sportist
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Marek over/under 0.5
Over
69.0%
Under
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 0.5
Over
48.6%
Under
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 1.5
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 2.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Marek, so a minus line means Marek give that many goals of a start and Rilski Sportist receive them. At -1, Marek must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Marek win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Marek)
Marek -2
7.0%
Draw -2
14.1%
Rilski Sportist +2
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Marek)
Marek -1
21.1%
Draw -1
25.7%
Rilski Sportist +1
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Marek)
Marek +1
80.3%
Draw +1
14.1%
Rilski Sportist -1
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Marek)
Marek +2
94.3%
Draw +2
4.5%
Rilski Sportist -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Marek
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.83
0.42
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.53
0.57
0.83
0.42
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilski Sportist) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rilski Sportist
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marek over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Marek
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.47
0.75
0.25
0.22
0.61
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.43
0.47
0.75
0.25
0.22
0.61
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilski Sportist) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rilski Sportist
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.75
0.75
0.33
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.20
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marek over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →