Defensive solidity will shape this low-scoring encounter, as both sides have conceded more than one goal per game on average. The model favours a home win, with a 45% chance, a draw at 39%, and an away victory at 16%. The average goal tally is 1.4, pointing to a single-goal match, and the most likely exact score is 0-0 with a 26.4% probability. Marek, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.33 conceded, while Yantra 2019, on the road, averages 0.67 goals scored and 0.92 conceded. Suggested selections include Under 3.5 goals at 94.9%, Under 2.5 at 84.0%, and BTTS No at 77.3%. The model’s pick remains a home win, and the match is expected to stay tight and low-scoring.
Results analysis
The match ended in a 1-1 draw, a shock that left the pre-match favourite Marek, who had been tipped to win with a 45% probability, on the wrong side of the scoreline. The model’s call was therefore incorrect. The game saw the Under 3.5 and Under 2.5 selections hit, with 94.9% and 84.0% probabilities respectively, while the BTTS No pick missed at 77.3%. Marek’s home form had recently dipped to a draw, and Yantra 2019, coming off a draw themselves, managed to hold their opponent to a single goal. The final result matched the most likely score of 1-0 in the model’s distribution, but the draw was the true outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Marek win✗ Miss
45.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
39.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 win✗ Miss
16.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Marek
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.80
1.29
0.29
0.75
1.25
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.86
1.50
0.33
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yantra 2019
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.03
1.86
1.43
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.32
1.24
1.92
1.54
0.67
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (33%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.9%
Under 1.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.0%
Under 2.5
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
5.1%
Under 3.5
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
22.7%
No
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
26.4%
1-0
22.5%
1-1 ✓
11.5%
2-0
10.9%
0-1
10.2%
2-1
4.8%
3-0
3.4%
0-2
2.5%
Marek goals ↓
Yantra 2019 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
26%
10%
2.5%
0.4%
0.0%
1
23%
11%
2.3%
0.3%
0.0%
2
11%
4.8%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
3
3.4%
1.5%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
4
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marek goals (down), columns = Yantra 2019 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Spartak Varna
2.12
Septemvri Sofia
1.91
Marek
1.79
Montana
1.68
Strumska Slava
1.50
Dobrudzha
1.47
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.47
Yantra 2019
1.38
Dunav Ruse
1.35
Spartak Pleven
1.32
Litex
1.32
Ludogorets II
1.29
Belasitsa
1.26
Sportist Svoge
1.18
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.12
Chernomorets Balchik
1.06
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.88
Bdin
0.65
Marek is 0.41 points better than Yantra 2019 in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Spartak Varna
1.76
Septemvri Sofia
1.35
Montana
1.35
Dobrudzha
1.26
Yantra 2019
1.15
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.15
Ludogorets II
1.15
Belasitsa
1.09
Marek
1.06
Chernomorets Balchik
1.06
Sportist Svoge
1.06
Strumska Slava
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.97
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.91
Dunav Ruse
0.88
Litex
0.88
Spartak Pleven
0.85
Bdin
0.56
Marek is 0.09 goals worse than Yantra 2019 in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Marek
0.76
Septemvri Sofia
0.76
Spartak Varna
0.82
Strumska Slava
0.82
Montana
0.91
Spartak Pleven
0.94
Belasitsa
0.97
Dobrudzha
1.00
Dunav Ruse
1.06
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.06
Litex
1.06
Yantra 2019
1.09
Ludogorets II
1.15
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.21
Sportist Svoge
1.32
Chernomorets Balchik
1.44
Bdin
1.47
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.65
Marek is 0.32 goals better than Yantra 2019 in terms of goals conceded per game (0.76 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Marek
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.33
0.14
0.00
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.36
0.17
0.00
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
87% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yantra 2019
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.43
0.93
0.71
0.19
0.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.52
0.92
0.77
0.17
0.25
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marek over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Marek
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
1.14
0.29
0.25
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.50
1.33
0.33
0.25
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yantra 2019
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.93
0.71
0.44
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.72
1.00
0.77
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marek over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS No
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SV (22)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
C1B (19)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Marek's squad is €1m less valuable than Yantra 2019's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
Marek and Yantra 2019 have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
DOB (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Marek and Yantra 2019 have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SV (11)
€3m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Y2 (10)
€2m
MAR (9)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Marek and Yantra 2019 have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →