Marek’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding just over half a goal per game, while Yantra 2019 has struggled away, allowing more than a goal on average. The model favours a home win, with a 45% chance, a draw at 35% and an away win at 20%. The expected total goals is 1.7, with a 28% probability that the match will finish 1-goal total. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, at 19.2%. For the match-level picks, the model’s selections are Under 3.5 at 90.4% and Under 2.5 at 75.2%. The home side’s average scoring and conceding figures against similar opposition are 1.54 and 0.54, while the away side averages 0.75 scored and 1.17 conceded. The recent form notes that both sides are coming off draws, which may keep the game tight.
Results analysis
The surprise came early as the pre-match favourite, a home win, fell short, ending in a 1-1 draw. Marek, who had just drawn 0-0 against Sportist Svoge, was expected to secure victory with a 45% probability, but the model’s call proved wrong. Yantra 2019, fresh from a 1-1 draw with Nesebar, held their own and forced the stalemate. The model’s other selections performed well: Under 3.5 goals hit with 90.4% confidence, and Under 2.5 goals also hit, supported by a 75.2% probability. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely 1-0 outcome, though the draw itself was the unexpected result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Marek win✗ Miss
44.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
35.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 win✗ Miss
20.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Marek
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.87
1.43
0.50
0.75
1.19
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
1.11
0.93
1.54
0.54
0.73
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yantra 2019
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.20
1.31
1.38
0.71
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.40
1.38
1.62
0.75
1.17
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
52.5%
Under 1.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
24.8%
Under 2.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
9.6%
Under 3.5
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
32.4%
No
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
19.2%
1-0
18.1%
1-1 ✓
13.6%
2-0
10.4%
0-1
10.2%
2-1
6.7%
1-2
4.0%
3-0
3.8%
Marek goals ↓
Yantra 2019 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
19%
10%
3.7%
0.8%
0.1%
1
18%
14%
4.0%
0.8%
0.1%
2
10%
6.7%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
3
3.8%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marek goals (down), columns = Yantra 2019 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dobrudzha
2.16
Montana
2.05
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.89
Marek
1.71
Dunav Ruse
1.68
Yantra 2019
1.68
Belasitsa
1.47
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.47
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.45
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.37
Spartak Pleven
1.34
Ludogorets II
1.34
CSKA Sofia II
1.29
Fratria
1.26
FK Minyor Pernik
1.08
Sportist Svoge
0.97
Litex
0.87
Botev Plovdiv II
0.76
Strumska Slava
0.74
Nesebar
0.74
Marek is 0.03 points better than Yantra 2019 in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dobrudzha
1.95
Yantra 2019
1.55
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.45
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.45
Montana
1.39
Ludogorets II
1.39
Dunav Ruse
1.37
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.34
CSKA Sofia II
1.24
Fratria
1.18
Marek
1.16
Belasitsa
1.11
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.08
FK Minyor Pernik
0.95
Spartak Pleven
0.92
Botev Plovdiv II
0.87
Nesebar
0.74
Strumska Slava
0.61
Sportist Svoge
0.58
Litex
0.50
Marek is 0.39 goals worse than Yantra 2019 in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Montana
0.39
Dobrudzha
0.68
Marek
0.82
Dunav Ruse
0.92
Yantra 2019
0.97
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.05
Sportist Svoge
1.05
CSKA Sofia II
1.08
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.08
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.08
Ludogorets II
1.11
Spartak Pleven
1.13
Belasitsa
1.18
Litex
1.18
Fratria
1.32
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.37
Strumska Slava
1.42
FK Minyor Pernik
1.47
Nesebar
1.66
Botev Plovdiv II
1.84
Marek is 0.16 goals better than Yantra 2019 in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Marek
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.23
0.43
0.07
0.50
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.50
0.25
0.46
0.08
0.53
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
87% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yantra 2019
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.43
0.75
0.50
0.29
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.48
0.77
0.54
0.25
0.42
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.20
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marek over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Marek
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
1.00
0.43
0.25
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.68
1.08
0.46
0.20
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yantra 2019
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.56
0.88
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.92
0.62
1.08
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marek over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (22)
€4m
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
EVT (23)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Marek's squad is €1m less valuable than Yantra 2019's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (6)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Marek and Yantra 2019 have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (5)
€1m
FRA (4)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Marek and Yantra 2019 have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (11)
€2m
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Marek and Yantra 2019 have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →