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Maribor vs Aluminij Result & Analysis

Date: 30/07/2023
Time: 15:30
Final 1-0
Maribor
Maribor
vs
Aluminij
Aluminij
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Maribor win
-
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
-
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aluminij win
-
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MariborMaribor

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L10W13L31W11D11D11D21W40W11DA·OLI16/04H·NK 22/04A·CEL29/04H·MUR02/05A·TAB14/05H·BRA20/05H·BIR13/07A·BIR20/07A·RAD23/07A·FC 27/07
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.002.210.791.881.19
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.531.131.710.571.381.62
vs Weaker (15)2.530.872.711.002.380.75
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AluminijAluminij

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D20W20W31W31W01L22D31W11D22DA·BIS10/04H·BEL16/04A·DEK21/04H·DOB29/04A·BIL03/05H·PRI12/05A·KRK19/05H·GOR25/05A·GOR28/05H·CEL23/07← 2. SNL1. SNL →
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.000.872.000.812.000.93
vs Stronger (1)2.002.002.002.00--
vs Similar (17)1.760.711.670.781.880.62
vs Weaker (12)2.331.002.500.672.171.33
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
0.0%
No
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Maribor is 1.08 points better than Aluminij in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 0.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Maribor is 0.89 goals better than Aluminij in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.03).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Maribor is 1.08 goals better than Aluminij in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.97).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Maribor is 13.4 percentage points better than Aluminij in terms of average possession (59% vs 46%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

MariborMaribor

For 5.2 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.5

🚩 Corners

16035361027274610335344448912911166888A·FC A·BIRH·BIRH·BRAA·TABH·MURA·CELH·NK A·OLIH·KOP
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.0

🟨 Cards

1101433472122212234321156113434752A·FC A·BIRH·BIRH·BRAA·TABH·MURA·CELH·NK A·OLIH·KOP
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 12.7 · Total 25.3

⚠️ Fouls

36015181191212910812221271012151818121133202419203417273623A·BIRH·BRAA·TABH·MURA·CELH·NK A·OLIH·KOPA·BRAH·TAB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

AluminijAluminij

For 4.7 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.0

🚩 Corners

1201584546129H·CELA·GORH·GOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.3

🟨 Cards

8013522184H·CELA·GORH·GOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 14.3 · Total 30.0

⚠️ Fouls

38014918201514233829H·CELA·GORH·GOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

MariborMaribor

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (48)8.910.17.83.02.93.125.324.226.5
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (27)8.49.27.63.43.53.425.525.525.5
vs Weaker (21)9.811.58.02.52.22.725.223.027.8
% over line34%44%25%38%26%48%74%67%82%
% under line66%56%75%62%74%52%26%33%18%
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AluminijAluminij

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (33)9.07.512.00.40.30.530.026.038.0
vs Stronger (1)6.06.0-1.01.0-23.023.0-
vs Similar (18)10.59.012.00.70.40.933.529.038.0
vs Weaker (14)---0.00.00.0---
% over line33%0%100%6%6%6%100%100%100%
% under line67%100%0%94%94%94%0%0%0%
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
10.7
Celje
9.6
Koper
9.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.2
Aluminij
9.0
Maribor
8.9
Bravo
8.7
NK Domzale
8.3

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
NK Domzale
5.4
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.6
Maribor
4.5
Aluminij
4.3
Koper
4.2
Celje
4.0
Bravo
3.9

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
30.0
NK Domzale
28.2
Bravo
27.5
Olimpija Ljubljana
27.0
Mura
26.5
Maribor
25.3
Celje
24.5
Koper
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.4%
Under 9.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.0%
Under 3.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
85.5%
Under 21.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MariborMaribor

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D01L21W00D00D01L01L20W01LA·OLI16/04H·NK 22/04A·CEL29/04H·MUR02/05A·TAB14/05H·BRA20/05H·BIR13/07A·BIR20/07A·RAD23/07A·FC 27/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.471.290.361.000.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.870.401.140.140.620.62
vs Weaker (15)1.400.531.430.571.380.50
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AluminijAluminij

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D10W30W21W00D12L11D11D10WA·BIS10/04H·BEL16/04A·DEK21/04H·DOB29/04A·BIL03/05H·PRI12/05A·KRK19/05H·GOR25/05A·GOR28/05H·CEL23/07← 2. SNL1. SNL →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.371.060.250.790.50
vs Stronger (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Similar (17)0.590.240.780.220.380.25
vs Weaker (12)1.420.581.500.331.330.83
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MariborMaribor

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W12L10W11D11D10W20W20W10WA·OLI16/04H·NK 22/04A·CEL29/04H·MUR02/05A·TAB14/05H·BRA20/05H·BIR13/07A·BIR20/07A·RAD23/07A·FC 27/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.530.930.430.880.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.670.730.570.430.751.00
vs Weaker (15)1.130.331.290.431.000.25
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AluminijAluminij

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W10W01L10W01L10W20W00D12LA·BIS10/04H·BEL16/04A·DEK21/04H·DOB29/04A·BIL03/05H·PRI12/05A·KRK19/05H·GOR25/05A·GOR28/05H·CEL23/07← 2. SNL1. SNL →
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.500.940.561.210.43
vs Stronger (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (17)1.180.470.890.561.500.38
vs Weaker (12)0.920.421.000.330.830.50
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls93.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards86.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls85.5%-------✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls74.2%-------✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards71.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
Maribor's squad is €6m more valuable than Aluminij's (€10m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Maribor's attack is €3m more valuable than Aluminij's (€5m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Maribor's midfield is €1m more valuable than Aluminij's (€2m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
Maribor's defence is €1m more valuable than Aluminij's (€3m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
MAR wins
0
Draws
0
ALU wins

Head-to-head

Maribor vs Aluminij · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

MariborMaribor

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/07/23AFC Differdange 03 Vs MAR1-1
23/07/23ARadomlje Vs MAR0-4
20/07/23ABirkirkara Vs MAR1-2
13/07/23HMAR Vs Birkirkara1-1
20/05/23HMAR Vs Bravo1-1
14/05/23ATabor Sežana Vs MAR1-1
02/05/23HMAR Vs Mura3-1
29/04/23ACelje Vs MAR3-1
22/04/23HMAR Vs NK Domzale1-0
16/04/23AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs MAR2-0

AluminijAluminij

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/07/23HALU Vs Celje2-2
28/05/23AGorica Vs ALU1-1
25/05/23HALU Vs Gorica3-1
19/05/23AKrka Vs ALU2-2
12/05/23HALU Vs Primorje0-1
03/05/23ABilje Vs ALU1-3
29/04/23HALU Vs Dob3-1
21/04/23ADekani Vs ALU0-2
16/04/23HALU Vs Beltinci2-0
10/04/23ABistrica Vs ALU1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Maribor
Maribor
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWD1.58
HomeWWWDD1.65
AwayLDWWD1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%43%44%
AVG goals2.732.702.76
Over 1.5 %75%78%72%
Over 2.5 %48%48%48%
Over 3.5 %31%30%32%
Scored1.671.651.68
Conceded1.061.041.08
BTTS46%43%48%
Clean Sheet33%35%32%
Corners8.9110.067.75
Cards4.534.194.88
Aluminij
Aluminij
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWDD2.09
HomeWWLWD1.88
AwayDWWDD2.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %61%53%69%
AVG goals2.762.652.88
Over 1.5 %73%71%75%
Over 2.5 %52%53%50%
Over 3.5 %48%47%50%
Scored1.941.882.00
Conceded0.820.760.88
BTTS52%47%56%
Clean Sheet42%41%44%
Corners9.007.5012.00
Cards4.332.508.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CeljeCelje3679
67%
2.2
7534+41
3.0
86%
61%
42%
9.8
55%
3.9
55%
21.8
60%
14
7162.10.9
41%
2MariborMaribor3670
56%
1.9
6932+37
2.8
81%
58%
31%
8.8
42%
4.4
68%
24.3
68%
10
5231.90.9
59%
3Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3664
50%
1.8
6944+25
3.1
81%
56%
42%
9.9
74%
4.1
53%
24.0
61%
12
6151.91.2
62%
4BravoBravo3650
33%
1.4
4242+0
2.3
83%
36%
14%
10.8
68%
3.6
53%
21.3
47%
4
1121.21.2
41%
5KoperKoper3648
33%
1.3
5149+2
2.8
78%
56%
31%
9.1
53%
3.9
59%
26.1
81%
8
3231.41.4
56%
6NK DomzaleNK Domzale3643
36%
1.2
5260-8
3.1
86%
64%
36%
11.3
74%
3.8
53%
24.3
58%
0
0001.41.7
44%
7MuraMura3640
28%
1.1
3957-18
2.7
78%
44%
33%
11.4
74%
3.7
53%
21.6
53%
5
2121.11.6
46%
8RogaškaRogaška3636
28%
1.0
3764-27
2.8
78%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
9RadomljeRadomlje3633
19%
0.9
3351-18
2.3
78%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.91.4
-
10AluminijAluminij3631
22%
0.9
3771-34
3.0
78%
53%
39%
10.1
65%
4.8
70%
26.4
75%
4
2121.02.0
46%
11NaftaNafta00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.00.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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