This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.40
1.67
1.73
1.40
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
2.00
2.00
1.50
2.50
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.30
1.39
1.58
1.67
1.00
1.09
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.7%
Under 1.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.6%
Under 2.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.4%
Under 3.5
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.2%
No
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
12.1%
2-0
10.3%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
0-1
6.5%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
5.4%
Maribor goals ↓
Aluminij goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
6.5%
3.5%
1.1%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.4%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.4%
4.2%
1.3%
0.3%
3
5.4%
4.9%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.1%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maribor goals (down), columns = Aluminij goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Maribor is 1.08 points better than Aluminij in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Maribor is 0.89 goals better than Aluminij in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Maribor is 1.08 goals better than Aluminij in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.97).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Maribor is 13.4 percentage points better than Aluminij in terms of average possession (59% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Maribor
For 3.9 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 13.5 · Total 26.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aluminij
For 4.6 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 12.7 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maribor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.7
8.7
3.8
4.2
3.4
25.4
25.4
25.4
vs Stronger (2)
11.5
9.0
14.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
19.5
23.0
16.0
vs Similar (28)
8.5
8.4
8.5
4.4
5.2
3.6
26.5
26.8
26.1
vs Weaker (20)
10.1
11.9
8.3
3.0
2.9
3.2
24.6
23.6
25.8
% over line
38%
40%
37%
54%
52%
56%
72%
68%
76%
% under line
62%
60%
63%
46%
48%
44%
28%
32%
24%
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.3
10.6
1.8
1.8
1.7
26.5
26.6
26.4
vs Stronger (3)
7.7
7.5
8.0
5.7
5.0
7.0
21.3
24.0
16.0
vs Similar (34)
10.4
9.9
11.0
2.1
2.2
2.0
27.6
27.3
27.9
vs Weaker (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
65%
56%
75%
26%
27%
25%
76%
89%
62%
% under line
35%
44%
25%
74%
73%
75%
24%
11%
38%
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.2
Aluminij
9.9
Celje
9.8
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.5
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.2
NK Domzale
4.8
Maribor
4.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.4
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Celje
4.0
Bravo
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
26.6
Aluminij
26.5
Maribor
25.5
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.1
Mura
24.8
Bravo
24.8
Koper
24.3
Celje
23.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
57.5%
Under 9.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
69.0%
Under 3.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
73.3%
Under 21.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maribor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.80
0.67
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.72
0.78
0.56
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.80
0.80
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.65
0.67
0.83
0.45
0.45
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.75
3.00
0.00
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maribor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.80
0.47
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.78
0.67
0.56
0.89
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.20
1.20
0.00
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.87
0.93
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.00
1.00
1.50
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.74
0.92
0.83
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
Maribor's squad is €6m more valuable than Aluminij's (€10m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Maribor's attack is €3m more valuable than Aluminij's (€5m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Maribor's midfield is €1m more valuable than Aluminij's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
Maribor's defence is €1m more valuable than Aluminij's (€3m vs €2m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celje
Olimpija Ljubljana
Bravo
Koper
NK Domzale
Mura
Rogaška
Radomlje
Nafta