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Maribor vs Koper Result & Analysis

Date: 24/09/2023
Time: 18:15
Final 0-1
Maribor
Maribor
Vs
45%
28%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Koper
Koper
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Maribor win✗ Miss
45.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Koper win✓ Hit
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MariborMaribor

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W33D13L21W03L22D11D02L12LA·FC 27/07H·ALU30/07H·FC 03/08A·FEN10/08H·BRA13/08H·FEN17/08A·ROG20/08H·NK 26/08A·CEL03/09A·OLI16/09
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.231.641.001.441.44
vs Stronger (2)0.503.000.003.001.003.00
vs Similar (17)1.531.291.880.881.221.67
vs Weaker (11)1.730.821.600.801.830.83
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KoperKoper

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L02L12L21W10W13L30W30W21W11DH·NK 04/05A·CEL13/05H·MUR20/05H·OLI22/07H·RAD29/07H·MUR14/08A·BRA18/08H·ROG26/08A·NK 02/09H·CEL17/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.171.251.061.361.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.191.121.000.621.381.62
vs Weaker (14)1.431.211.501.501.330.83
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%017%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.1%
Under 1.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.9%
Under 2.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.1%
Under 3.5
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.4%
2-0
8.2%
0-1 ✓
6.9%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
5.2%
Maribor goals ↓
Koper goals →
01234
08.4%6.9%4.5%1.7%0.5%
19.6%13%6.8%2.6%0.7%
28.2%9.2%5.2%1.9%0.5%
34.1%4.6%2.6%1.0%0.3%
41.6%1.7%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maribor goals (down), columns = Koper goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Maribor is 0.61 points better than Koper in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Maribor is 0.50 goals better than Koper in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.42).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Maribor is 0.47 goals better than Koper in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.36).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Maribor is 2.9 percentage points better than Koper in terms of average possession (59% vs 56%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

MariborMaribor

For 4.5 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.8

🚩 Corners

1508529654563116164353687159111471089A·OLIA·CELH·NK H·FENH·BRAA·FENH·FC H·ALUA·FC A·BIR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.4

🟨 Cards

1203211323142225741143352546412556A·OLIA·CELH·NK H·FENH·BRAA·FENH·FC H·ALUA·FC A·BIR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 13.5 · Total 26.0

⚠️ Fouls

4801814111412121310811792127911151811932252423191648203320A·OLIA·CELH·NK H·FENH·BRAA·FENH·FC H·ALUA·BIRH·BRA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

KoperKoper

For 5.8 · Against 5.3 · Total 11.1

🚩 Corners

2106886485435129733234741414129821105711H·CELA·NK A·BRAH·MURH·OLIH·MURA·CELH·NK A·OLIH·GOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.3

🟨 Cards

70111323114323311425112452754572H·CELA·NK A·BRAH·MURH·OLIH·MURA·CELH·NK A·OLIH·GOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 12.3 · Total 25.8

⚠️ Fouls

320716181491113121414141113121810131816523322025282525283121H·CELA·NK A·BRAH·MURH·OLIH·MURA·CELH·NK A·OLIH·GOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

MariborMaribor

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.210.18.23.33.82.925.925.626.2
vs Stronger (2)11.59.014.04.04.04.019.523.016.0
vs Similar (28)8.49.17.73.74.42.926.626.726.6
vs Weaker (20)10.012.08.02.82.92.725.924.327.8
% over line35%44%25%46%46%46%72%69%77%
% under line65%56%75%54%54%54%28%31%23%
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KoperKoper

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (45)9.68.411.02.72.53.024.323.425.4
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (26)9.88.011.53.32.73.924.123.424.7
vs Weaker (19)9.28.99.81.92.21.724.723.427.0
% over line53%38%71%38%29%48%79%73%85%
% under line47%62%29%62%71%52%21%27%15%
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
10.7
Aluminij
10.4
Celje
9.9
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.6
Koper
9.6
Maribor
9.2
NK Domzale
9.0
Bravo
9.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.2
NK Domzale
5.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.8
Maribor
4.7
Mura
4.4
Koper
4.1
Celje
4.0
Bravo
3.9

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
27.8
Aluminij
27.2
Bravo
26.4
Olimpija Ljubljana
26.4
Mura
26.0
Maribor
25.5
Koper
24.3
Celje
24.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
64.0%
Under 9.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
66.4%
Under 3.5
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
79.8%
Under 21.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MariborMaribor

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D12L00D20W01L10W11D01L01LA·FC 27/07H·ALU30/07H·FC 03/08A·FEN10/08H·BRA13/08H·FEN17/08A·ROG20/08H·NK 26/08A·CEL03/09A·OLI16/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.570.860.500.620.62
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (17)0.760.531.000.380.560.67
vs Weaker (11)0.820.640.800.600.830.67
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KoperKoper

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L12L01L10W00D10W01L10W11D01LA·OLI30/04H·NK 04/05A·CEL13/05H·MUR20/05H·OLI22/07H·RAD29/07H·MUR14/08A·BRA18/08A·NK 02/09H·CEL17/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.600.440.500.790.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.500.620.120.380.880.88
vs Weaker (14)0.710.570.750.620.670.50
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MariborMaribor

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W21W13L01L02L12L00D01L11DA·FC 27/07H·ALU30/07H·FC 03/08A·FEN10/08H·BRA13/08H·FEN17/08A·ROG20/08H·NK 26/08A·CEL03/09A·OLI16/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.670.790.500.810.81
vs Stronger (2)0.502.500.002.001.003.00
vs Similar (17)0.760.760.880.500.671.00
vs Weaker (11)0.910.180.800.201.000.17
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KoperKoper

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D01L02L21W00D12L20W10W10WA·OLI30/04H·NK 04/05A·CEL13/05H·MUR20/05H·OLI22/07H·RAD29/07H·MUR14/08A·BRA18/08A·NK 02/09H·CEL17/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.600.690.620.570.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.560.560.620.380.500.75
vs Weaker (14)0.710.640.750.880.670.33
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls89.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards83.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls79.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners75.2%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.575.1%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
Maribor's squad is €2m more valuable than Koper's (€10m vs €8m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Maribor's attack is €2m more valuable than Koper's (€5m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Maribor and Koper have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
Maribor and Koper have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
MAR wins
0
Draws
2
KOP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Maribor vs Koper · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
08/04/23HMAR Vs Koper3-1
12/02/23AKoper Vs MAR0-1
08/10/22HMAR Vs Koper0-1
31/07/22AKoper Vs MAR2-1

MariborMaribor

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/09/23AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs MAR2-1
03/09/23ACelje Vs MAR2-0
26/08/23HMAR Vs NK Domzale1-1
20/08/23ARogaška Vs MAR2-2
17/08/23HMAR Vs Fenerbahçe0-3
13/08/23HMAR Vs Bravo2-1
10/08/23AFenerbahçe Vs MAR3-1
03/08/23HMAR Vs FC Differdange 033-3
30/07/23HMAR Vs Aluminij1-0
27/07/23AFC Differdange 03 Vs MAR1-1

KoperKoper

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/23HKOP Vs Celje1-1
02/09/23ANK Domzale Vs KOP1-2
26/08/23HKOP Vs Rogaška3-0
18/08/23ABravo Vs KOP0-3
14/08/23HKOP Vs Mura1-3
29/07/23HKOP Vs Radomlje1-0
22/07/23HKOP Vs Olimpija Ljubljana2-1
20/05/23HKOP Vs Mura1-2
13/05/23ACelje Vs KOP2-0
04/05/23HKOP Vs NK Domzale2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Maribor
Maribor
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLL1.54
HomeWDWLD1.71
AwayDLDLL1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%46%38%
AVG goals2.902.882.92
Over 1.5 %80%83%77%
Over 2.5 %52%50%54%
Over 3.5 %34%29%38%
Scored1.701.751.65
Conceded1.201.121.27
BTTS52%50%54%
Clean Sheet28%29%27%
Corners9.1810.068.19
Cards4.915.114.69
Koper
Koper
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWD1.53
HomeWWLWD1.42
AwayDLLWW1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%42%48%
AVG goals2.382.382.38
Over 1.5 %69%67%71%
Over 2.5 %44%42%48%
Over 3.5 %18%17%19%
Scored1.331.331.33
Conceded1.041.041.05
BTTS49%46%52%
Clean Sheet33%29%38%
Corners9.608.3811.00
Cards4.073.754.43

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CeljeCelje3679
67%
2.2
7534+41
3.0
86%
61%
42%
9.8
55%
3.9
55%
21.8
60%
14
7162.10.9
41%
2MariborMaribor3670
56%
1.9
6932+37
2.8
81%
58%
31%
8.8
42%
4.4
68%
24.3
68%
10
5231.90.9
59%
3Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3664
50%
1.8
6944+25
3.1
81%
56%
42%
9.9
74%
4.1
53%
24.0
61%
12
6151.91.2
62%
4BravoBravo3650
33%
1.4
4242+0
2.3
83%
36%
14%
10.8
68%
3.6
53%
21.3
47%
4
1121.21.2
41%
5KoperKoper3648
33%
1.3
5149+2
2.8
78%
56%
31%
9.1
53%
3.9
59%
26.1
81%
8
3231.41.4
56%
6NK DomzaleNK Domzale3643
36%
1.2
5260-8
3.1
86%
64%
36%
11.3
74%
3.8
53%
24.3
58%
0
0001.41.7
44%
7MuraMura3640
28%
1.1
3957-18
2.7
78%
44%
33%
11.4
74%
3.7
53%
21.6
53%
5
2121.11.6
46%
8RogaškaRogaška3636
28%
1.0
3764-27
2.8
78%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
9RadomljeRadomlje3633
19%
0.9
3351-18
2.3
78%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.91.4
-
10AluminijAluminij3631
22%
0.9
3771-34
3.0
78%
53%
39%
10.1
65%
4.8
70%
26.4
75%
4
2121.02.0
46%
11NaftaNafta00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.00.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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