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Maribor vs Koper Result & Analysis

Date: 17/03/2024
Time: 16:30
Final 3-1
Maribor
Maribor
Vs
56%
25%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Koper
Koper
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Maribor win✓ Hit
56.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Koper win✗ Miss
18.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MariborMaribor

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-700D31W33D22D70W20W21W00D30W11DA·MUR26/11H·OLI03/12A·KOP06/12A·RAD11/12H·ALU11/02A·MUR18/02H·BRA22/02A·ROG25/02H·NK 02/03A·CEL09/03
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.202.141.071.381.31
vs Stronger (2)0.503.000.003.001.003.00
vs Similar (19)1.631.262.221.001.101.50
vs Weaker (9)2.220.672.500.752.000.60
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KoperKoper

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L23L33D24L02L01L21W00D12L13LH·NK 11/11A·ALU26/11H·MAR06/12H·OLI10/12A·CEL16/12H·RAD10/02A·ALU16/02A·BRA26/02H·ROG03/03H·CEL14/03
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.431.501.621.291.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.551.401.901.601.201.20
vs Weaker (10)1.101.500.831.671.501.25
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%016%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.4%
Under 2.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.3%
Under 3.5
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.9%
No
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-0
10.6%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.6%
3-0
6.3%
3-1 ✓
5.9%
1-2
5.1%
Maribor goals ↓
Koper goals →
01234
07.6%5.0%2.9%0.9%0.2%
111%12%5.1%1.6%0.4%
210%9.8%4.6%1.4%0.3%
36.3%5.9%2.8%0.9%0.2%
42.8%2.6%1.2%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maribor goals (down), columns = Koper goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Maribor is 0.61 points better than Koper in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Maribor is 0.50 goals better than Koper in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.42).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Maribor is 0.47 goals better than Koper in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.36).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Maribor is 2.9 percentage points better than Koper in terms of average possession (59% vs 56%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

MariborMaribor

For 3.9 · Against 3.8 · Total 7.7

🚩 Corners

10045532224731723825435984610851098A·CELH·NK H·BRAA·MURH·ALUA·KOPH·OLIA·MURH·CELA·NK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.0

🟨 Cards

80142411121353132245251348444A·CELH·NK H·BRAA·MURH·ALUA·KOPH·OLIA·MURH·CELA·NK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.8 · Total 23.6

⚠️ Fouls

3001218101071564219168131411121013121530202210302427232327A·CELH·NK H·BRAA·MURH·ALUA·KOPH·OLIA·MURH·CELA·NK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

KoperKoper

For 4.7 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.0

🚩 Corners

140736127164644106445106308101014109A·BRAA·ALUA·CELH·OLIH·MARA·ALUH·NK H·BRAA·MURH·ALU
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.4

🟨 Cards

60231112312324211412413456351A·BRAA·ALUA·CELH·OLIH·MARA·ALUH·NK H·BRAA·MURH·ALU
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.4 · Total 25.4

⚠️ Fouls

41016152120218162212121914121598612143141324343126241426A·BRAA·ALUA·CELH·MARA·ALUH·NK H·BRAA·MURH·ALUA·OLI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

MariborMaribor

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.09.38.84.04.43.625.025.324.7
vs Stronger (2)11.59.014.04.04.04.019.523.016.0
vs Similar (29)8.48.28.64.75.43.926.626.726.5
vs Weaker (19)9.911.48.42.92.83.023.023.023.0
% over line36%36%35%56%52%60%69%67%72%
% under line64%64%65%44%48%40%31%33%28%
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KoperKoper

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.19.29.12.82.43.125.123.826.2
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (32)8.88.88.82.92.33.424.722.726.2
vs Weaker (18)9.89.79.82.62.62.525.825.426.4
% over line53%44%61%40%27%54%80%76%83%
% under line47%56%39%60%73%46%20%24%17%
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Celje
9.8
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.5
Koper
9.2
Maribor
8.9

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Maribor
4.8
NK Domzale
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.5
Mura
4.2
Celje
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
NK Domzale
26.4
Maribor
25.4
Koper
24.9
Olimpija Ljubljana
24.8
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Celje
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.8%
Under 9.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.4%
Under 3.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
77.0%
Under 21.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MariborMaribor

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D30W22D21W40W11D00D20W00DH·CEL12/11A·MUR26/11H·OLI03/12A·KOP06/12A·RAD11/12H·ALU11/02H·BRA22/02A·ROG25/02H·NK 02/03A·CEL09/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.631.130.670.530.60
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (20)0.750.651.200.600.300.70
vs Weaker (8)1.250.621.250.751.250.50
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KoperKoper

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L22D03L00D00D11D00D12L01LH·NK 11/11A·ALU26/11H·MAR06/12H·OLI10/12A·CEL16/12H·RAD10/02A·ALU16/02A·BRA26/02H·ROG03/03H·CEL14/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.730.670.800.600.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.700.800.781.000.640.64
vs Weaker (10)0.500.600.500.500.500.75
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MariborMaribor

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D01L11D01L30W10W00D10W11DH·CEL12/11A·MUR26/11H·OLI03/12A·KOP06/12A·RAD11/12H·ALU11/02H·BRA22/02A·ROG25/02H·NK 02/03A·CEL09/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.600.930.400.800.80
vs Stronger (2)0.502.500.002.001.003.00
vs Similar (20)0.850.600.900.400.800.80
vs Weaker (8)1.000.121.250.000.750.25
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KoperKoper

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D11D21W02L01L10W00D00D12LH·NK 11/11A·ALU26/11H·MAR06/12H·OLI10/12A·CEL16/12H·RAD10/02A·ALU16/02A·BRA26/02H·ROG03/03H·CEL14/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.800.730.930.670.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.750.751.000.780.550.73
vs Weaker (10)0.600.900.331.171.000.50
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls87.8%--------
Over 2.5 cards80.4%--------
Over 21.5 fouls77.0%--------
Over 1.576.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners75.2%--------
Under 5.5 cards73.5%--------
Under 3.570.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
Maribor's squad is €2m more valuable than Koper's (€10m vs €8m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Maribor's attack is €2m more valuable than Koper's (€5m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Maribor and Koper have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
Maribor and Koper have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
MAR wins
1
Draws
3
KOP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Maribor vs Koper · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
06/12/23AKoper Vs MAR3-3
24/09/23HMAR Vs Koper0-1
08/04/23HMAR Vs Koper3-1
12/02/23AKoper Vs MAR0-1
08/10/22HMAR Vs Koper0-1
31/07/22AKoper Vs MAR2-1

MariborMaribor

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/03/24ACelje Vs MAR1-1
02/03/24HMAR Vs NK Domzale3-0
25/02/24ARogaška Vs MAR0-0
22/02/24HMAR Vs Bravo2-1
18/02/24AMura Vs MAR0-2
11/02/24HMAR Vs Aluminij7-0
11/12/23ARadomlje Vs MAR2-2
06/12/23AKoper Vs MAR3-3
03/12/23HMAR Vs Olimpija Ljubljana3-1
26/11/23AMura Vs MAR0-0

KoperKoper

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/03/24HKOP Vs Celje1-3
03/03/24HKOP Vs Rogaška1-2
26/02/24ABravo Vs KOP0-0
16/02/24AAluminij Vs KOP1-2
10/02/24HKOP Vs Radomlje0-1
16/12/23ACelje Vs KOP2-0
10/12/23HKOP Vs Olimpija Ljubljana2-4
06/12/23HKOP Vs Maribor3-3
26/11/23AAluminij Vs KOP3-2
11/11/23HKOP Vs NK Domzale0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Maribor
Maribor
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWD1.74
HomeLWWWW2.24
AwayDDWDD1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%68%28%
AVG goals2.883.082.68
Over 1.5 %84%84%84%
Over 2.5 %56%60%52%
Over 3.5 %30%32%28%
Scored1.802.241.36
Conceded1.080.841.32
BTTS60%56%64%
Clean Sheet28%32%24%
Corners9.059.278.80
Cards4.745.004.45
Koper
Koper
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLL1.32
HomeDLLLL1.15
AwayWLLWD1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%31%38%
AVG goals2.542.652.42
Over 1.5 %68%65%71%
Over 2.5 %46%46%46%
Over 3.5 %26%27%25%
Scored1.301.351.25
Conceded1.241.311.17
BTTS58%58%58%
Clean Sheet28%23%33%
Corners9.149.179.11
Cards3.833.504.17

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CeljeCelje3679
67%
2.2
7534+41
3.0
86%
61%
42%
9.8
55%
3.9
55%
21.8
60%
14
7162.10.9
41%
2MariborMaribor3670
56%
1.9
6932+37
2.8
81%
58%
31%
8.8
42%
4.4
68%
24.3
68%
10
5231.90.9
59%
3Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3664
50%
1.8
6944+25
3.1
81%
56%
42%
9.9
74%
4.1
53%
24.0
61%
12
6151.91.2
62%
4BravoBravo3650
33%
1.4
4242+0
2.3
83%
36%
14%
10.8
68%
3.6
53%
21.3
47%
4
1121.21.2
41%
5KoperKoper3648
33%
1.3
5149+2
2.8
78%
56%
31%
9.1
53%
3.9
59%
26.1
81%
8
3231.41.4
56%
6NK DomzaleNK Domzale3643
36%
1.2
5260-8
3.1
86%
64%
36%
11.3
74%
3.8
53%
24.3
58%
0
0001.41.7
44%
7MuraMura3640
28%
1.1
3957-18
2.7
78%
44%
33%
11.4
74%
3.7
53%
21.6
53%
5
2121.11.6
46%
8RogaškaRogaška3636
28%
1.0
3764-27
2.8
78%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
9RadomljeRadomlje3633
19%
0.9
3351-18
2.3
78%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.91.4
-
10AluminijAluminij3631
22%
0.9
3771-34
3.0
78%
53%
39%
10.1
65%
4.8
70%
26.4
75%
4
2121.02.0
46%
11NaftaNafta00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.00.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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