Maribor is expected to emerge victorious, with a recent storyline of coming off a draw against Celje in a 1-1 stalemate. The overall shape of the match is likely to be an entertaining one, with a predicted 3.1 total goals. The single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring 11.5% of the time.
Maribor has been scoring at a rate of 2.4 goals per game at home, with an impressive defensive record of only 0.8 goals conceded per game. Koper, meanwhile, has been scoring 2.12 goals per game away from home, but has struggled to keep clean sheets, conceding 1.5 goals per game. The model's selection is Over 1.5, occurring 82.8% of the time, with a slight edge of 5%.
Maribor is predicted to win 49% of the time, with a 25% chance of a draw, and Koper winning 26% of the time. The model's selection, Over 1.5, is also the favourite, with a 82.8% probability.
The win extends Maribor's unbeaten run, as they maintained their dominance at home with a 2-0 victory over Koper. The model's selection of a home win proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 49%. The suggested picks largely came in, with the model's selection of "Over 1.5" goals hitting with an 82.8% probability, while the most likely score was a 2-1 result, with a 23% probability. The expected total goals stood at 3.1, but the actual score remained low, highlighting the model's accuracy in predicting the likelihood of a low-scoring match.
Maribor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 1.07 | 2.38 | 0.69 | 0.88 | 1.35 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.32 | 1.32 | 2.29 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.91 | 0.64 | 2.50 | 0.33 | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
Koper| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.03 | 1.23 | 2.14 | 1.07 | 1.94 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.94 | 1.33 | 2.11 | 1.00 | 1.78 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 2.17 | 1.08 | 2.20 | 1.20 | 2.14 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+0pp vs league) | |||||
| Koper goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 11% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.4% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 4.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Maribor
Koper
Maribor| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (21) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Koper| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (19) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Maribor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.40 | 1.38 | 0.08 | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.68 | 0.47 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.36 | 0.27 | 1.67 | 0.17 | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+37pp vs league) | |||||
Koper| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 1.00 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.11 | 0.50 | 1.22 | 0.22 | 1.00 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.83 | 0.58 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.57 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
Maribor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.62 | 0.29 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.63 | 0.84 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.55 | 0.36 | 0.83 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Koper| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.70 | 1.14 | 0.71 | 0.94 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.60 | 0.60 | 1.14 | 0.43 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 84.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 82.8% | 1.18 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | +4.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 78.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 76.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 72.2% | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.28 | - | - | - | +2.0% | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 72.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 08/02/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 19/10/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/08/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 18/05/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 16/03/25 | H | 4-2 | |
| 30/11/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 15/09/24 | H | 2-0 |
Maribor| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 25/07/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 19/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 14/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 1-0 |
Koper| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 30/07/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 26/07/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 17/07/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 3-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Maribor | 7 | 15 | 57% | 2.1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 2.6 | 86% | 43% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Koper | 7 | 12 | 43% | 1.7 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 1.7 | 57% | 14% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | - |
| 3 | Celje | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 4 | Bravo | 7 | 11 | 43% | 1.6 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 2.3 | 86% | 43% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 5 | Aluminij | 7 | 8 | 29% | 1.1 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 2.3 | 57% | 29% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 7 | 8 | 29% | 1.1 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 3.3 | 100% | 57% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 7 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 7 | 8 | 29% | 1.1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1.1 | 29% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | - |
| 8 | Nafta | 7 | 7 | 29% | 1.0 | 12 | 12 | +0 | 3.4 | 86% | 57% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | - |
| 9 | Mura | 7 | 7 | 29% | 1.0 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 3.1 | 71% | 57% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 2.0 | - |
| 10 | Radomlje | 6 | 5 | 17% | 0.8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.7 | - |