Maribor’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 3-2 victory over Nafta set the tone for a home win, the model’s most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly scored encounter, with the single most likely scoreline 1-0 at 15.1%. Maribor, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 2.8 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded, while Nafta, away against a stronger opponent, averages no goals scored and one conceded. Home win probability sits at 56%, draw at 28%, and away win at 16%. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.4%, Under 6.5 at 99.2%, Under 5.5 at 97.3%, Away under 2.5 goals at 96.5%, Home +2 handicap at 95.3%, Home under 3.5 goals at 92.9%, and Under 4.5 at 92.2%. These figures outline a clear edge for Maribor, with a low-scoring, home-side advantage likely to prevail.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maribor win
56.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nafta win
15.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maribor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.00
2.50
0.71
1.00
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.47
1.11
2.33
0.89
0.70
1.30
vs Weaker (11)
2.09
0.82
2.80
0.40
1.50
1.17
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nafta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.97
2.07
1.27
1.67
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.33
1.50
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.69
0.88
1.71
1.14
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (11)
2.36
0.73
2.67
0.83
2.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.0%
Under 1.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.2%
Under 2.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.1%
Under 3.5
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
40.9%
No
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.1%
2-0
12.6%
1-1
12.6%
0-0
11.6%
2-1
8.9%
3-0
6.5%
0-1
6.2%
3-1
4.6%
Maribor goals ↓
Nafta goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
6.2%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
1
15%
13%
4.0%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
8.9%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
3
6.5%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.5%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maribor goals (down), columns = Nafta goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Maribor is 1.14 points better than Nafta in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Maribor is 0.14 goals better than Nafta in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Maribor is 1.00 goals better than Nafta in terms of goals conceded per game (0.71 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Maribor
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Nafta
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Maribor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Nafta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nafta
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.4
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.9
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Celje
25.0
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.7%
Under 9.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.1%
Under 3.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.5%
Under 21.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Maribor or Draw
84.4%
Avg Implied -
57%
28%
16%
covers Maribor + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maribor or Nafta
72.3%
Avg Implied -
57%
28%
16%
covers Maribor + Nafta
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nafta
43.4%
Avg Implied -
57%
28%
16%
covers Draw + Nafta
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Maribor over/under 0.5
Over
78.8%
Under
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5
Over
45.9%
Under
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 3.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 0.5
Over
50.5%
Under
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5
Over
15.7%
Under
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Maribor, so a minus line means Maribor give that many goals of a start and Nafta receive them. At -1, Maribor must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Maribor win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Maribor)
Maribor -2
12.9%
Draw -2
17.9%
Nafta +2
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Maribor)
Maribor -1
30.8%
Draw -1
25.8%
Nafta +1
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Maribor)
Maribor +1
84.4%
Draw +1
11.0%
Nafta -1
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Maribor)
Maribor +2
95.4%
Draw +2
3.7%
Nafta -2
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maribor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.40
1.29
0.14
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.42
1.00
0.11
0.30
0.70
vs Weaker (11)
1.45
0.36
1.80
0.20
1.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nafta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.73
0.53
0.93
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.44
0.57
0.43
0.89
0.44
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.18
0.83
0.17
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maribor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
1.21
0.57
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.68
1.33
0.78
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (11)
0.64
0.45
1.00
0.20
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nafta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.33
0.73
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.44
1.14
0.71
0.78
0.22
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
0.55
1.83
0.67
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Maribor's squad is €8m more valuable than Nafta's (€10m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Maribor's attack is €4m more valuable than Nafta's (€5m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Maribor's midfield is €2m more valuable than Nafta's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Maribor's defence is €2m more valuable than Nafta's (€3m vs €1m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Koper
Celje
Bravo
Aluminij
Brinje-Grosuplje
Olimpija Ljubljana
Mura
Radomlje