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Maribor vs NK Domzale Result & Analysis

Date: 26/08/2023
Time: 18:15
Final 1-1
Maribor
Maribor
Vs
45%
27%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
NK Domzale
NK Domzale
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Maribor win✗ Miss
45.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale win✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MariborMaribor

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D21W40W11D10W33D13L21W03L22DH·BIR13/07A·BIR20/07A·RAD23/07A·FC 27/07H·ALU30/07H·FC 03/08A·FEN10/08H·BRA13/08H·FEN17/08A·ROG20/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.072.130.871.731.27
vs Stronger (2)0.503.000.003.001.003.00
vs Similar (16)1.751.122.000.781.431.57
vs Weaker (12)2.420.672.800.602.140.71
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D32W21W01L14L30W32W11D12L12LH·GOR28/04A·KOP04/05H·OLI13/05A·RAD20/05H·BAL13/07A·BAL18/07A·MUR22/07H·BRA30/07A·OLI12/08H·CEL20/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.171.131.531.730.80
vs Stronger (13)1.381.231.001.331.711.14
vs Similar (17)1.471.121.221.671.750.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.7%
Under 2.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.5%
Under 3.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.8%
No
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.0%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
8.9%
2-0
8.0%
0-0
7.6%
1-2
6.9%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
5.5%
Maribor goals ↓
NK Domzale goals →
01234
07.6%6.4%4.4%1.7%0.5%
18.9%13%6.9%2.7%0.8%
28.0%9.3%5.5%2.1%0.6%
34.2%4.9%2.9%1.1%0.3%
41.6%1.9%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maribor goals (down), columns = NK Domzale goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Maribor is 0.75 points better than NK Domzale in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.19).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Maribor is 0.47 goals better than NK Domzale in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.44).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Maribor is 0.78 goals better than NK Domzale in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.67).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Maribor is 15.9 percentage points better than NK Domzale in terms of average possession (59% vs 44%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

MariborMaribor

For 5.5 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.0

🚩 Corners

1405456311616435361027274911147108912911H·FENH·BRAA·FENH·FC H·ALUA·FC A·BIRH·BIRH·BRAA·TAB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.0

🟨 Cards

12031422257411433472122464125561134H·FENH·BRAA·FENH·FC H·ALUA·FC A·BIRH·BIRH·BRAA·TAB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 12.9 · Total 24.2

⚠️ Fouls

48013108117921279111518119121291081223191648203320241920H·FENH·BRAA·FENH·FC H·ALUA·BIRH·BRAA·TABH·MURA·CEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

For 4.4 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.7

🚩 Corners

18039576242612104623533512128618146588H·CELA·OLIH·BRAA·MURA·BALH·BALH·OLIA·KOPH·GORA·MAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.2

🟨 Cards

12011122466142441334311361256567H·CELA·OLIH·BRAA·MURA·BALH·BALH·OLIA·KOPH·GORA·MAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 14.1 · Total 27.2

⚠️ Fouls

340715118151116141515101814612221813131922192630302820343132H·CELA·OLIH·BRAA·MURH·OLIA·KOPH·GORA·MARH·BRAA·TAB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

MariborMaribor

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.19.98.23.33.73.025.325.125.7
vs Stronger (2)11.59.014.04.04.04.019.523.016.0
vs Similar (28)8.49.17.73.84.43.126.226.725.5
vs Weaker (20)9.811.58.02.62.42.725.223.027.8
% over line38%44%31%44%42%46%68%62%75%
% under line62%56%69%56%58%54%32%38%25%
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (42)8.58.88.23.53.83.127.527.327.8
vs Stronger (18)7.97.98.03.74.72.827.828.427.0
vs Similar (24)9.19.98.43.23.23.327.225.828.4
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line28%27%29%50%62%38%89%93%85%
% under line72%73%71%50%38%62%11%7%15%
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
10.8
Aluminij
10.0
Celje
10.0
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.6
Koper
9.3
Maribor
9.1
Bravo
8.9
NK Domzale
8.5

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
NK Domzale
5.0
Aluminij
4.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.8
Maribor
4.8
Mura
4.4
Koper
4.1
Celje
4.1
Bravo
4.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
27.5
Bravo
26.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
26.4
Aluminij
26.2
Mura
26.1
Maribor
25.3
Celje
24.2
Koper
24.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.7%
Under 9.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
69.3%
Under 3.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.1%
Under 21.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MariborMaribor

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L20W01L00D12L00D20W01L10WH·BIR13/07A·BIR20/07A·RAD23/07A·FC 27/07H·ALU30/07H·FC 03/08A·FEN10/08H·BRA13/08H·FEN17/08A·ROG20/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.471.200.400.870.53
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (16)1.000.441.220.330.710.57
vs Weaker (12)1.250.501.400.401.140.57
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W21W10W00D02L10W12L01L01L01LH·GOR28/04A·KOP04/05H·OLI13/05A·RAD20/05H·BAL13/07A·BAL18/07A·MUR22/07H·BRA30/07A·OLI12/08H·CEL20/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.430.330.470.870.40
vs Stronger (13)0.690.310.330.171.000.43
vs Similar (17)0.530.530.330.670.750.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MariborMaribor

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W20W10W10W21W13L01L02L12LH·BIR13/07A·BIR20/07A·RAD23/07A·FC 27/07H·ALU30/07H·FC 03/08A·FEN10/08H·BRA13/08H·FEN17/08A·ROG20/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.600.930.470.870.73
vs Stronger (2)0.502.500.002.001.003.00
vs Similar (16)0.750.690.780.440.711.00
vs Weaker (12)1.170.171.400.201.000.14
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D11D01L12L20W20W10W11D11DH·GOR28/04A·KOP04/05H·OLI13/05A·RAD20/05H·BAL13/07A·BAL18/07A·MUR22/07H·BRA30/07A·OLI12/08H·CEL20/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.730.801.070.870.40
vs Stronger (13)0.690.920.671.170.710.71
vs Similar (17)0.940.590.891.001.000.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls91.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards84.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls83.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.577.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners74.5%-------✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls70.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
MAR wins
1
Draws
2
ND wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Maribor vs NK Domzale · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
22/04/23HMAR Vs NK Domzale1-0
23/02/23ANK Domzale Vs MAR1-1
22/10/22HMAR Vs NK Domzale0-3
14/08/22ANK Domzale Vs MAR3-2

MariborMaribor

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/08/23ARogaška Vs MAR2-2
17/08/23HMAR Vs Fenerbahçe0-3
13/08/23HMAR Vs Bravo2-1
10/08/23AFenerbahçe Vs MAR3-1
03/08/23HMAR Vs FC Differdange 033-3
30/07/23HMAR Vs Aluminij1-0
27/07/23AFC Differdange 03 Vs MAR1-1
23/07/23ARadomlje Vs MAR0-4
20/07/23ABirkirkara Vs MAR1-2
13/07/23HMAR Vs Birkirkara1-1

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/08/23HND Vs Celje1-2
12/08/23AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs ND2-1
30/07/23HND Vs Bravo1-1
22/07/23AMura Vs ND2-3
18/07/23ABalzan FC Vs ND0-3
13/07/23HND Vs Balzan FC1-4
20/05/23ARadomlje Vs ND1-0
13/05/23HND Vs Olimpija Ljubljana2-1
04/05/23AKoper Vs ND2-3
28/04/23HND Vs Gorica1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Maribor
Maribor
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLD1.58
HomeDWDWL1.79
AwayWWDLD1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%50%38%
AVG goals2.943.002.88
Over 1.5 %78%83%73%
Over 2.5 %54%54%54%
Over 3.5 %36%33%38%
Scored1.741.831.65
Conceded1.201.171.23
BTTS52%50%54%
Clean Sheet28%29%27%
Corners9.099.898.19
Cards4.884.894.88
NK Domzale
NK Domzale
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLL1.40
HomeDWLDL1.19
AwayWLWWL1.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%24%48%
AVG goals2.692.712.67
Over 1.5 %76%81%71%
Over 2.5 %50%57%43%
Over 3.5 %29%33%24%
Scored1.431.241.62
Conceded1.261.481.05
BTTS57%67%48%
Clean Sheet29%19%38%
Corners8.528.808.21
Cards5.005.334.64

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CeljeCelje3679
67%
2.2
7534+41
3.0
86%
61%
42%
9.8
55%
3.9
55%
21.8
60%
14
7162.10.9
41%
2MariborMaribor3670
56%
1.9
6932+37
2.8
81%
58%
31%
8.8
42%
4.4
68%
24.3
68%
10
5231.90.9
59%
3Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3664
50%
1.8
6944+25
3.1
81%
56%
42%
9.9
74%
4.1
53%
24.0
61%
12
6151.91.2
62%
4BravoBravo3650
33%
1.4
4242+0
2.3
83%
36%
14%
10.8
68%
3.6
53%
21.3
47%
4
1121.21.2
41%
5KoperKoper3648
33%
1.3
5149+2
2.8
78%
56%
31%
9.1
53%
3.9
59%
26.1
81%
8
3231.41.4
56%
6NK DomzaleNK Domzale3643
36%
1.2
5260-8
3.1
86%
64%
36%
11.3
74%
3.8
53%
24.3
58%
0
0001.41.7
44%
7MuraMura3640
28%
1.1
3957-18
2.7
78%
44%
33%
11.4
74%
3.7
53%
21.6
53%
5
2121.11.6
46%
8RogaškaRogaška3636
28%
1.0
3764-27
2.8
78%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
9RadomljeRadomlje3633
19%
0.9
3351-18
2.3
78%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.91.4
-
10AluminijAluminij3631
22%
0.9
3771-34
3.0
78%
53%
39%
10.1
65%
4.8
70%
26.4
75%
4
2121.02.0
46%
11NaftaNafta00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.00.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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