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Maribor vs NK Domzale Result & Analysis

Date: 04/10/2025
Time: 18:15
Final 3-0
Maribor
Maribor
Vs
70%
18%
13%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
NK Domzale
NK Domzale
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Maribor win✓ Hit
69.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale win✗ Miss
12.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

MariborMaribor

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W11D22D20W33D51W01L10W32W03LA·NK 27/07H·PAK31/07H·KOP03/08A·PRI10/08H·BRA16/08H·RAD23/08A·OLI31/08H·MUR13/09A·ALU19/09A·CEL27/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.172.131.201.401.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.501.561.881.751.121.38
vs Weaker (14)2.070.712.430.571.710.86
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L12L02L13L03L02L14L11D13L10WA·PRI19/07H·MAR27/07A·RAD01/08H·OLI10/08A·MUR16/08H·ALU22/08A·CEL31/08A·BRA14/09H·KOP20/09H·PRI27/09
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.771.131.601.201.93
vs Stronger (12)1.002.081.291.860.602.40
vs Similar (18)1.281.561.001.381.501.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.5%
Under 1.5
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.3%
Under 2.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.2%
Under 3.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.9%
No
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.3%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
8.0%
1-1
7.9%
3-0 ✓
7.6%
1-0
6.1%
4-1
5.1%
4-0
4.9%
Maribor goals ↓
NK Domzale goals →
01234
03.4%2.1%1.5%0.5%0.1%
16.1%7.9%3.8%1.3%0.3%
28.8%9.3%4.9%1.7%0.5%
37.6%8.0%4.2%1.5%0.4%
44.9%5.1%2.7%1.0%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maribor goals (down), columns = NK Domzale goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.18
Nafta
2.00
Koper
1.97
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.61
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.58
Radomlje
1.32
Aluminij
1.06
Mura
0.91
NK Domzale
0.67
Primorje
0.64
Maribor is 0.94 points better than NK Domzale in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 0.67).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.50
Koper
2.09
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.73
Radomlje
1.47
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.42
Aluminij
1.24
Mura
1.03
NK Domzale
0.94
Primorje
0.86
Nafta
0.50
Maribor is 0.78 goals better than NK Domzale in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 0.94).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.00
Celje
0.94
Maribor
1.21
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.21
Koper
1.26
Bravo
1.50
Mura
1.62
Aluminij
1.79
Radomlje
1.85
Primorje
2.08
NK Domzale
2.11
Maribor is 0.90 goals better than NK Domzale in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 2.11).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

MariborMaribor

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

MariborMaribor

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.0-10.00.10.00.218.0-18.0
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (27)10.0-10.00.10.00.318.0-18.0
vs Weaker (23)---0.00.00.0---
% over line100%-100%2%0%4%0%-0%
% under line0%-0%98%100%96%100%-100%
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (20)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (30)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Celje
9.3
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
NK Domzale
4.7
Celje
4.5
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
NK Domzale
26.4
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Celje
23.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.4%
Under 9.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.5%
Under 3.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.9%
Under 21.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MariborMaribor

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W11D10W01L21W01L10W21W01LA·NK 27/07H·PAK31/07H·KOP03/08A·PRI10/08H·BRA16/08H·RAD23/08A·OLI31/08H·MUR13/09A·ALU19/09A·CEL27/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.501.070.530.530.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.690.690.880.750.500.62
vs Weaker (14)0.930.291.290.290.570.29
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D01L00D01L00D13L01L11D10WA·PRI19/07H·MAR27/07A·RAD01/08H·OLI10/08A·MUR16/08H·ALU22/08A·CEL31/08A·BRA14/09H·KOP20/09H·PRI27/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.700.470.530.670.87
vs Stronger (12)0.500.830.570.710.401.00
vs Similar (18)0.610.610.380.380.800.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MariborMaribor

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L11D10W32W30W00D00D11D02LA·NK 27/07H·PAK31/07H·KOP03/08A·PRI10/08H·BRA16/08H·RAD23/08A·OLI31/08H·MUR13/09A·ALU19/09A·CEL27/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.671.070.670.870.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.810.881.001.000.620.75
vs Weaker (14)1.140.431.140.291.140.57
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L01L01L13L02L02L01L10W02L00DA·PRI19/07H·MAR27/07A·RAD01/08H·OLI10/08A·MUR16/08H·ALU22/08A·CEL31/08A·BRA14/09H·KOP20/09H·PRI27/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.070.671.070.531.07
vs Stronger (12)0.501.250.711.140.201.40
vs Similar (18)0.670.940.621.000.700.90
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls84.3%--------
Over 2.5 cards78.3%--------
Under 5.5 cards76.1%--------
Over 21.5 fouls71.9%--------
Under 11.5 corners71.3%--------
Over 2.570.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
PRI (10)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
PRI (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
PRI (2)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
PRI (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
6
MAR wins
1
Draws
1
ND wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Maribor vs NK Domzale · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
27/07/25ANK Domzale Vs MAR1-2
06/04/25ANK Domzale Vs MAR1-0
01/02/25HMAR Vs NK Domzale2-1
29/09/24ANK Domzale Vs MAR0-3
21/07/24HMAR Vs NK Domzale4-1
27/04/24ANK Domzale Vs MAR1-1
02/03/24HMAR Vs NK Domzale3-0
04/11/23ANK Domzale Vs MAR1-2

MariborMaribor

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/25ACelje Vs MAR3-0
19/09/25AAluminij Vs MAR2-3
13/09/25HMAR Vs Mura1-0
31/08/25AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs MAR1-0
23/08/25HMAR Vs Radomlje5-1
16/08/25HMAR Vs Bravo3-3
10/08/25APrimorje Vs MAR0-2
03/08/25HMAR Vs Koper2-2
31/07/25HMAR Vs Paks1-1
27/07/25ANK Domzale Vs MAR1-2

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/25HND Vs Primorje1-0
20/09/25HND Vs Koper1-3
14/09/25ABravo Vs ND1-1
31/08/25ACelje Vs ND4-1
22/08/25HND Vs Aluminij0-2
16/08/25AMura Vs ND3-0
10/08/25HND Vs Olimpija Ljubljana1-3
01/08/25ARadomlje Vs ND2-0
27/07/25HND Vs Maribor1-2
19/07/25APrimorje Vs ND3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Maribor
Maribor
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.68
HomeDDDWW1.96
AwayWWLWL1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%58%38%
AVG goals2.643.082.23
Over 1.5 %76%79%73%
Over 2.5 %50%58%42%
Over 3.5 %22%38%8%
Scored1.622.041.23
Conceded1.021.041.00
BTTS56%62%50%
Clean Sheet26%29%23%
Corners10.00-10.00
Cards4.00-4.00
NK Domzale
NK Domzale
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLW0.80
HomeLLLLW0.80
AwayLLLLD0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%20%20%
AVG goals2.942.723.16
Over 1.5 %78%76%80%
Over 2.5 %60%60%60%
Over 3.5 %36%32%40%
Scored1.040.961.12
Conceded1.901.762.04
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet18%20%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CeljeCelje3474
68%
2.2
8532+53
3.4
85%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
7162.50.9
-
2KoperKoper3467
59%
2.0
7143+28
3.4
82%
68%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3232.11.3
-
3BravoBravo3462
56%
1.8
6251+11
3.3
88%
71%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.81.5
-
4MariborMaribor3353
45%
1.6
5740+17
2.9
82%
58%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5231.71.2
-
5Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3352
45%
1.6
4740+7
2.6
79%
58%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6151.41.2
-
6RadomljeRadomlje3445
38%
1.3
5063-13
3.3
97%
79%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.9
-
7AluminijAluminij3436
29%
1.1
4261-19
3.0
85%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.21.8
-
8MuraMura3431
24%
0.9
3555-20
2.6
76%
53%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.6
-
9PrimorjePrimorje3623
17%
0.6
3175-44
2.9
83%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.1
-
10NK DomzaleNK Domzale1812
17%
0.7
1738-21
3.1
89%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
11NaftaNafta24
50%
2.0
10+1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.50.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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