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Maribor vs Rogaška Result & Analysis

Date: 28/10/2023
Time: 18:15
Final 2-1
Maribor
Maribor
Vs
74%
17%
8%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rogaška
Rogaška
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Maribor win✓ Hit
74.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rogaška win✗ Miss
8.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MariborMaribor

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L22D11D02L12L01L31W01L31W12LH·FEN17/08A·ROG20/08H·NK 26/08A·CEL03/09A·OLI16/09H·KOP24/09H·RAD28/09A·ALU01/10H·MUR07/10A·BRA22/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.371.641.141.381.56
vs Stronger (2)0.503.000.003.001.003.00
vs Similar (17)1.291.531.571.141.101.80
vs Weaker (11)2.000.822.000.832.000.80
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RogaškaRogaška

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L22D03L11D21W02L20W02L03L04LA·CEL13/08H·MAR20/08A·KOP26/08H·RAD03/09A·ALU16/09H·MUR23/09H·BRA27/09H·OLI01/10A·NK 08/10H·CEL21/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.401.381.311.211.50
vs Stronger (2)0.003.000.004.000.002.00
vs Similar (18)1.061.721.111.331.002.11
vs Weaker (10)2.000.502.000.832.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.6%
Under 2.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.2%
Under 3.5
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.2%
No
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.8%
3-0
10.3%
1-0
9.8%
2-1 ✓
9.1%
1-1
8.3%
3-1
7.3%
4-0
6.2%
0-0
5.1%
Maribor goals ↓
Rogaška goals →
01234
05.1%2.4%1.1%0.3%0.0%
19.8%8.3%2.7%0.6%0.1%
213%9.1%3.3%0.8%0.1%
310%7.3%2.6%0.6%0.1%
46.2%4.4%1.6%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maribor goals (down), columns = Rogaška goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Maribor is 0.94 points better than Rogaška in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Maribor is 0.89 goals better than Rogaška in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.03).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Maribor is 0.89 goals better than Rogaška in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.78).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

MariborMaribor

For 4.7 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.4

🚩 Corners

150754756428529654563111211116871591114A·BRAH·MURA·ALUH·KOPA·OLIA·CELH·NK H·FENH·BRAA·FEN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.7

🟨 Cards

902363433211323142222397525464A·BRAH·MURA·ALUH·KOPA·OLIA·CELH·NK H·FENH·BRAA·FEN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 12.9 · Total 24.5

⚠️ Fouls

3607121361121162018141114121213108117919193236322524231916A·BRAH·MURA·ALUH·KOPA·OLIA·CELH·NK H·FENH·BRAA·FEN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

RogaškaRogaška

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

MariborMaribor

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.49.98.83.43.92.825.525.525.6
vs Stronger (2)11.59.014.04.04.04.019.523.016.0
vs Similar (27)8.78.78.64.05.13.126.827.226.3
vs Weaker (21)10.211.98.02.52.62.424.523.626.2
% over line41%44%38%44%46%42%68%65%71%
% under line59%56%62%56%54%58%32%35%29%
This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RogaškaRogaška

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (42)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (2)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (24)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (16)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
10.8
Aluminij
10.1
Celje
9.9
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Koper
9.5
NK Domzale
9.4
Bravo
9.3
Maribor
9.2

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.4
NK Domzale
4.8
Maribor
4.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.3
Koper
4.1
Celje
4.0
Bravo
3.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
26.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
26.1
Bravo
25.8
Maribor
25.6
Aluminij
25.5
Mura
25.3
Koper
24.4
Celje
23.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.3%
Under 9.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
64.5%
Under 3.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
76.0%
Under 21.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MariborMaribor

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W11D01L01L01L01L01L21W00DH·FEN17/08A·ROG20/08H·NK 26/08A·CEL03/09A·OLI16/09H·KOP24/09H·RAD28/09A·ALU01/10H·MUR07/10A·BRA22/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.630.640.640.560.62
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (17)0.470.650.570.570.400.70
vs Weaker (11)0.910.640.830.671.000.60
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RogaškaRogaška

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D01L11D20W01L10W00D01L03LA·OLI29/07A·CEL13/08H·MAR20/08H·RAD03/09A·ALU16/09H·MUR23/09H·BRA27/09H·OLI01/10A·NK 08/10H·CEL21/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.600.690.810.790.36
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.003.000.000.00
vs Similar (17)0.590.710.560.780.620.62
vs Weaker (11)1.090.271.000.501.200.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MariborMaribor

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L12L00D01L11D00D30W00D10W12LH·FEN17/08A·ROG20/08H·NK 26/08A·CEL03/09A·OLI16/09H·KOP24/09H·RAD28/09A·ALU01/10H·MUR07/10A·BRA22/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.731.000.500.810.94
vs Stronger (2)0.502.500.002.001.003.00
vs Similar (17)0.820.881.000.570.701.10
vs Weaker (11)1.090.181.170.171.000.20
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RogaškaRogaška

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L02L21W00D01L01L10W02L02L01LA·OLI29/07A·CEL13/08H·MAR20/08H·RAD03/09A·ALU16/09H·MUR23/09H·BRA27/09H·OLI01/10A·NK 08/10H·CEL21/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.730.690.500.571.00
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (17)0.530.940.560.560.501.38
vs Weaker (11)0.910.271.000.330.800.20
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls87.1%--------
Over 1.582.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards81.8%--------
Over 21.5 fouls76.0%--------
Home win74.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards71.5%--------
Over 8.5 corners70.3%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
MAR wins
1
Draws
0
ROG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Maribor vs Rogaška · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
20/08/23ARogaška Vs MAR2-2

MariborMaribor

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/10/23ABravo Vs MAR2-1
07/10/23HMAR Vs Mura3-1
01/10/23AAluminij Vs MAR1-0
28/09/23HMAR Vs Radomlje3-1
24/09/23HMAR Vs Koper0-1
16/09/23AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs MAR2-1
03/09/23ACelje Vs MAR2-0
26/08/23HMAR Vs NK Domzale1-1
20/08/23ARogaška Vs MAR2-2
17/08/23HMAR Vs Fenerbahçe0-3

RogaškaRogaška

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/10/23HROG Vs Celje0-4
08/10/23ANK Domzale Vs ROG3-0
01/10/23HROG Vs Olimpija Ljubljana0-2
27/09/23HROG Vs Bravo2-0
23/09/23HROG Vs Mura0-2
16/09/23AAluminij Vs ROG1-2
03/09/23HROG Vs Radomlje1-1
26/08/23AKoper Vs ROG3-0
20/08/23HROG Vs Maribor2-2
13/08/23ACelje Vs ROG2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Maribor
Maribor
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.64
HomeLDLWW1.92
AwayDLLLL1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%54%38%
AVG goals2.963.082.85
Over 1.5 %80%83%77%
Over 2.5 %56%58%54%
Over 3.5 %36%38%35%
Scored1.802.001.62
Conceded1.161.081.23
BTTS56%58%54%
Clean Sheet26%25%27%
Corners9.389.948.75
Cards4.945.224.62
Rogaška
Rogaška
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.81
HomeDLWLL1.67
AwayLLLWL1.95
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %55%48%62%
AVG goals2.602.902.29
Over 1.5 %76%81%71%
Over 2.5 %43%48%38%
Over 3.5 %24%38%10%
Scored1.401.621.19
Conceded1.191.291.10
BTTS33%43%24%
Clean Sheet40%29%52%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CeljeCelje3679
67%
2.2
7534+41
3.0
86%
61%
42%
9.8
55%
3.9
55%
21.8
60%
14
7162.10.9
41%
2MariborMaribor3670
56%
1.9
6932+37
2.8
81%
58%
31%
8.8
42%
4.4
68%
24.3
68%
10
5231.90.9
59%
3Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3664
50%
1.8
6944+25
3.1
81%
56%
42%
9.9
74%
4.1
53%
24.0
61%
12
6151.91.2
62%
4BravoBravo3650
33%
1.4
4242+0
2.3
83%
36%
14%
10.8
68%
3.6
53%
21.3
47%
4
1121.21.2
41%
5KoperKoper3648
33%
1.3
5149+2
2.8
78%
56%
31%
9.1
53%
3.9
59%
26.1
81%
8
3231.41.4
56%
6NK DomzaleNK Domzale3643
36%
1.2
5260-8
3.1
86%
64%
36%
11.3
74%
3.8
53%
24.3
58%
0
0001.41.7
44%
7MuraMura3640
28%
1.1
3957-18
2.7
78%
44%
33%
11.4
74%
3.7
53%
21.6
53%
5
2121.11.6
46%
8RogaškaRogaška3636
28%
1.0
3764-27
2.8
78%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
9RadomljeRadomlje3633
19%
0.9
3351-18
2.3
78%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.91.4
-
10AluminijAluminij3631
22%
0.9
3771-34
3.0
78%
53%
39%
10.1
65%
4.8
70%
26.4
75%
4
2121.02.0
46%
11NaftaNafta00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.00.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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