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Maribor vs Rogaška Result & Analysis

Date: 21/04/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 3-0
Maribor
Maribor
Vs
76%
16%
9%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rogaška
Rogaška
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Maribor win✓ Hit
75.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
15.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rogaška win✗ Miss
8.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MariborMaribor

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W00D30W11D31W10W20W50W11D21WH·BRA22/02A·ROG25/02H·NK 02/03A·CEL09/03H·KOP17/03H·RAD29/03A·ALU05/04H·MUR09/04A·BRA14/04A·OLI17/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.032.330.871.271.20
vs Stronger (1)0.003.000.003.00--
vs Similar (19)1.681.162.380.881.181.36
vs Weaker (10)2.200.602.670.501.500.75
Clean sheet %27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RogaškaRogaška

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L00D21W10W10W00D20W23L10W12LA·CEL22/02H·MAR25/02A·KOP03/03H·RAD10/03A·ALU13/03H·MUR17/03H·BRA29/03H·OLI06/04A·NK 10/04H·CEL13/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.701.001.311.142.14
vs Stronger (4)0.503.000.503.000.503.00
vs Similar (26)1.151.501.071.071.252.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.2%
Under 1.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.1%
Under 2.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.5%
Under 3.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.5%
No
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.7%
3-0 ✓
9.5%
2-1
9.0%
3-1
8.0%
1-1
7.4%
1-0
7.3%
4-0
6.4%
4-1
5.3%
Maribor goals ↓
Rogaška goals →
01234
03.7%1.8%1.1%0.3%0.1%
17.3%7.4%2.8%0.8%0.2%
211%9.0%3.8%1.0%0.2%
39.5%8.0%3.3%0.9%0.2%
46.4%5.3%2.2%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maribor goals (down), columns = Rogaška goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Maribor is 0.94 points better than Rogaška in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Maribor is 0.89 goals better than Rogaška in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.03).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Maribor is 0.89 goals better than Rogaška in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.78).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

MariborMaribor

For 3.9 · Against 3.8 · Total 7.7

🚩 Corners

10045532224731723825435984610851098A·CELH·NK H·BRAA·MURH·ALUA·KOPH·OLIA·MURH·CELA·NK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.0

🟨 Cards

80142411121353132245251348444A·CELH·NK H·BRAA·MURH·ALUA·KOPH·OLIA·MURH·CELA·NK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.8 · Total 23.6

⚠️ Fouls

3001218101071564219168131411121013121530202210302427232327A·CELH·NK H·BRAA·MURH·ALUA·KOPH·OLIA·MURH·CELA·NK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

RogaškaRogaška

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

MariborMaribor

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.19.58.73.54.03.125.125.224.9
vs Stronger (2)11.59.014.04.04.04.019.523.016.0
vs Similar (30)8.38.38.44.15.03.226.726.526.8
vs Weaker (18)10.212.08.52.62.42.823.023.222.8
% over line38%42%33%52%50%54%65%61%69%
% under line62%58%67%48%50%46%35%39%31%
This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RogaškaRogaška

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (4)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (35)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (11)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Celje
9.8
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.5
Koper
9.2
Maribor
8.9

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Maribor
4.8
NK Domzale
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.5
Mura
4.2
Celje
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
NK Domzale
26.4
Maribor
25.4
Koper
24.9
Olimpija Ljubljana
24.8
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Celje
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.7%
Under 9.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.8%
Under 3.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
72.0%
Under 21.5
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MariborMaribor

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D20W00D10W00D10W20W11D01LH·BRA22/02A·ROG25/02H·NK 02/03A·CEL09/03H·KOP17/03H·RAD29/03A·ALU05/04H·MUR09/04A·BRA14/04A·OLI17/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.531.270.470.530.60
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (19)0.890.531.500.380.450.64
vs Weaker (9)1.110.561.170.501.000.67
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RogaškaRogaška

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D21W10W00D00D10W11D10W00DA·CEL22/02H·MAR25/02A·KOP03/03H·RAD10/03A·ALU13/03H·MUR17/03H·BRA29/03H·OLI06/04A·NK 10/04H·CEL13/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.600.440.560.710.64
vs Stronger (4)0.001.000.001.500.000.50
vs Similar (26)0.650.540.500.430.830.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MariborMaribor

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D10W11D21W10W10W30W00D20WH·BRA22/02A·ROG25/02H·NK 02/03A·CEL09/03H·KOP17/03H·RAD29/03A·ALU05/04H·MUR09/04A·BRA14/04A·OLI17/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.601.070.400.670.80
vs Stronger (2)0.502.500.002.001.003.00
vs Similar (19)0.790.630.880.500.730.73
vs Weaker (9)1.110.111.500.000.330.33
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RogaškaRogaška

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L00D00D00D10W00D10W12L00D12LA·CEL22/02H·MAR25/02A·KOP03/03H·RAD10/03A·ALU13/03H·MUR17/03H·BRA29/03H·OLI06/04A·NK 10/04H·CEL13/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.070.560.750.431.43
vs Stronger (4)0.502.000.501.500.502.50
vs Similar (26)0.500.920.570.640.421.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls84.4%--------
Over 2.5 cards80.6%--------
Home win75.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners73.6%--------
Under 5.5 cards73.2%--------
Over 21.5 fouls72.0%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
MAR wins
2
Draws
0
ROG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Maribor vs Rogaška · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
25/02/24ARogaška Vs MAR0-0
28/10/23HMAR Vs Rogaška2-1
20/08/23ARogaška Vs MAR2-2

MariborMaribor

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/04/24AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs MAR1-2
14/04/24ABravo Vs MAR1-1
09/04/24HMAR Vs Mura5-0
05/04/24AAluminij Vs MAR0-2
29/03/24HMAR Vs Radomlje1-0
17/03/24HMAR Vs Koper3-1
09/03/24ACelje Vs MAR1-1
02/03/24HMAR Vs NK Domzale3-0
25/02/24ARogaška Vs MAR0-0
22/02/24HMAR Vs Bravo2-1

RogaškaRogaška

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/24HROG Vs Celje1-2
10/04/24ANK Domzale Vs ROG0-1
06/04/24HROG Vs Olimpija Ljubljana2-3
29/03/24HROG Vs Bravo2-0
17/03/24HROG Vs Mura0-0
13/03/24AAluminij Vs ROG0-1
10/03/24HROG Vs Radomlje1-0
03/03/24AKoper Vs ROG1-2
25/02/24HROG Vs Maribor0-0
22/02/24ACelje Vs ROG4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Maribor
Maribor
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW1.74
HomeWWWWW2.21
AwayDDWDW1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%67%31%
AVG goals2.863.002.73
Over 1.5 %84%79%88%
Over 2.5 %56%58%54%
Over 3.5 %32%38%27%
Scored1.762.121.42
Conceded1.100.881.31
BTTS62%58%65%
Clean Sheet26%29%23%
Corners9.149.538.72
Cards4.785.054.50
Rogaška
Rogaška
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWL1.52
HomeWDWLL1.38
AwayDLWWW1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%38%54%
AVG goals2.702.462.96
Over 1.5 %76%69%83%
Over 2.5 %50%38%62%
Over 3.5 %28%27%29%
Scored1.321.271.38
Conceded1.381.191.58
BTTS42%38%46%
Clean Sheet34%35%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CeljeCelje3679
67%
2.2
7534+41
3.0
86%
61%
42%
9.8
55%
3.9
55%
21.8
60%
14
7162.10.9
41%
2MariborMaribor3670
56%
1.9
6932+37
2.8
81%
58%
31%
8.8
42%
4.4
68%
24.3
68%
10
5231.90.9
59%
3Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3664
50%
1.8
6944+25
3.1
81%
56%
42%
9.9
74%
4.1
53%
24.0
61%
12
6151.91.2
62%
4BravoBravo3650
33%
1.4
4242+0
2.3
83%
36%
14%
10.8
68%
3.6
53%
21.3
47%
4
1121.21.2
41%
5KoperKoper3648
33%
1.3
5149+2
2.8
78%
56%
31%
9.1
53%
3.9
59%
26.1
81%
8
3231.41.4
56%
6NK DomzaleNK Domzale3643
36%
1.2
5260-8
3.1
86%
64%
36%
11.3
74%
3.8
53%
24.3
58%
0
0001.41.7
44%
7MuraMura3640
28%
1.1
3957-18
2.7
78%
44%
33%
11.4
74%
3.7
53%
21.6
53%
5
2121.11.6
46%
8RogaškaRogaška3636
28%
1.0
3764-27
2.8
78%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
9RadomljeRadomlje3633
19%
0.9
3351-18
2.3
78%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.91.4
-
10AluminijAluminij3631
22%
0.9
3771-34
3.0
78%
53%
39%
10.1
65%
4.8
70%
26.4
75%
4
2121.02.0
46%
11NaftaNafta00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.00.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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