PythiaFootballBETA
This match is expected to be a closely contested affair, with AC Oulu coming off a win and Mariehamn still reeling from a recent defeat. The away side's recent form note suggests they're on a roll, but the home side's struggles at home against stronger opponents could be telling. AC Oulu are the favourites to win, with a 46% chance of success, while Mariehamn have a 26% chance of taking the three points and a 27% chance of a draw.
The expected total number of goals is 2.7, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.1% chance of occurrence. Mariehamn have struggled to score at home, averaging just 1.07 goals per game, while conceding 1.64. AC Oulu, on the other hand, have been less prolific away from home, averaging 0.5 goals per game against weaker opponents, but have been more solid at the back, conceding just 1.0.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, with a 76.5% chance of occurrence, and Under 3.5, with a 71.3% chance. AC Oulu's away win is the model's pick, with a 46% chance.
The draw between Mariehamn and AC Oulu extends Mariehamn's winless streak, as they failed to capitalize on their strong home form. The match ended 1-1, defying the expected low-scoring affair. AC Oulu's away win was the model's selection, but it was incorrect, as the model had assigned a 46% probability to this outcome. The model suggested Over 1.5 goals, which hit, coming in at 76.5%, and Under 3.5 goals, also a hit, with a 71.3% probability.
Mariehamn| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.93 | 1.13 | 1.60 | 1.27 | 2.27 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.91 | 2.27 | 1.17 | 1.67 | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.37 | 1.74 | 1.11 | 1.56 | 1.60 | 1.90 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-11pp vs league) | |||||
AC Oulu| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.47 | 1.15 | 1.23 | 1.18 | 1.65 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 2.00 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.11 | 1.46 | 1.08 | 1.33 | 1.12 | 1.56 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| AC Oulu goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| 1 | 6.4% | 13% | 9.4% | 4.9% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 4.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
MariehamnAC OuluMariehamn| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.3 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 20.1 | 20.6 | 19.2 |
| vs Stronger (21) | 9.8 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 18.6 | 18.5 | 19.0 |
| vs Similar (29) | 10.4 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 20.6 | 21.6 | 19.3 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 70% | 75% | 62% | 20% | 29% | 12% | 52% | 54% | 50% |
| % under line | 30% | 25% | 38% | 80% | 71% | 88% | 48% | 46% | 50% |
AC Oulu| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.7 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 22.8 | 25.0 | 20.9 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 8.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 22.0 | 20.0 |
| vs Similar (44) | 9.9 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 23.1 | 25.4 | 21.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 47% | 75% | 22% | 22% | 29% | 15% | 59% | 88% | 33% |
| % under line | 53% | 25% | 78% | 78% | 71% | 85% | 41% | 12% | 67% |
Mariehamn| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.77 | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.45 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.37 | 0.79 | 0.22 | 0.78 | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
AC Oulu| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.70 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.47 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.39 | 0.71 | 0.33 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.94 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
Mariehamn| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.17 | 0.73 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.45 | 1.55 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.00 | 0.95 | 0.89 | 0.78 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
AC Oulu| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.77 | 0.77 | 0.85 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 93.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 86.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 84.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 11.5 corners | 82.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 76.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 75.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 73.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 71.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 26/07/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 17/05/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 19/10/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 01/09/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/05/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 16/09/23 | A | 3-2 |
Mariehamn| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 11/07/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 04/07/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 27/06/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 23/06/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 18/06/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 13/06/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 30/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 26/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 3-0 |
AC Oulu| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 11/07/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 27/06/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 23/06/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 18/06/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 13/06/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 31/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  KuPS | 21 | 43 | 57% | 2.0 | 38 | 22 | +16 | 2.9 | 86% | 48% | 29% | 8.1 | 33% | 1.9 | 11% | 19.9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 57% |
| 2 |  Inter Turku | 21 | 39 | 48% | 1.9 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 2.1 | 67% | 33% | 19% | 10.7 | 67% | 2.3 | 14% | 19.7 | 57% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 58% |
| 3 |  Gnistan | 21 | 35 | 48% | 1.7 | 35 | 28 | +7 | 3.0 | 81% | 48% | 33% | 10.1 | 57% | 3.6 | 50% | 24.2 | 71% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 4 |  HJK Helsinki | 21 | 34 | 48% | 1.6 | 34 | 26 | +8 | 2.9 | 71% | 57% | 29% | 7.0 | 14% | 3.0 | 43% | 18.4 | 43% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 5 |  VPS | 21 | 33 | 43% | 1.6 | 29 | 21 | +8 | 2.4 | 62% | 43% | 29% | 7.1 | 30% | 3.4 | 50% | 21.8 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 6 | AC Oulu | 21 | 33 | 48% | 1.6 | 25 | 25 | +0 | 2.4 | 57% | 38% | 19% | 9.5 | 38% | 3.8 | 62% | 22.6 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 7 |  Turku PS | 21 | 30 | 38% | 1.4 | 27 | 22 | +5 | 2.3 | 67% | 48% | 24% | 7.7 | 40% | 3.9 | 60% | 20.3 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 8 |  Lahti | 21 | 29 | 38% | 1.4 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 2.1 | 67% | 33% | 10% | 8.3 | 50% | 3.8 | 60% | 22.6 | 80% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 56% |
| 9 |  Ilves | 21 | 25 | 33% | 1.2 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 3.2 | 76% | 62% | 52% | 8.1 | 11% | 3.0 | 56% | 18.0 | 44% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 10 |  SJK | 21 | 18 | 19% | 0.9 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 2.8 | 86% | 57% | 29% | 9.0 | 57% | 3.9 | 57% | 20.4 | 57% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 11 |  FF Jaro | 21 | 15 | 14% | 0.7 | 18 | 42 | -24 | 2.9 | 81% | 57% | 29% | 8.4 | 30% | 3.1 | 40% | 19.2 | 50% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 47% |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 21 | 11 | 10% | 0.5 | 15 | 43 | -28 | 2.8 | 86% | 48% | 24% | 10.5 | 70% | 3.0 | 64% | 21.3 | 64% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 45% |